Ohio vs. Virginia Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Mar. 20, 2021

David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Ohio vs. Virginia Predictions

Virginia is favored by 7.5 points for Saturday’s 7:15 p.m. start on truTV. The betting line for the total has been opened at 131 points.

Ohio brings a head of steam into Saturday’s opening round matchup with just one loss (straight-up and against the spread) in its last 10 games. The Mid-American Tournament Champions are 16-7 SU overall. The Bobcats got hot at the right time of the year which could be problematic for Virginia.

After dropping out of the ACC Tournament due to health protocols, the Cavaliers were not even sure they would be playing this game. This high level of confusion combined with Ohio’s momentum tips the scales towards the Bobcats plus the 7.5 points.

Even with Ohio averaging more than 80 points per game, my lean is towards the UNDER on the total line. Virginia can still play defense and that may be the only way to get a SU win on Saturday.

• Score Prediction: Virginia 66 Ohio 64
• Best Bets - Side: Ohio +7.5
• Best Bets - Total: UNDER 131

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Ohio vs. Virginia Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Virginia -7.5
• Total: 131
• Money-Line: Virginia -420 Ohio +340

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

• Ohio 200/1
• Virginia 50/1

Odds to Win West Regional

• Ohio 66/1
• Virginia 10/1

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Saturday's Early Action - Mar. 20 5 vs. 12 4 vs. 13 3 vs. 14 8 vs. 9 1 vs. 16 5 vs. 12 2 vs. 15 6 vs. 10

Handicapping Ohio vs. Virginia

Ohio won its final two conference tournament games against Toledo and Buffalo by a combined 22 points closing as an underdog in each contest. During an earlier six-game winning streak, it won two of those games as an underdog. This team have been resilient and dangerous when getting points this season.

The Cavaliers played like one of the best teams in the nation at times while raising more than a few eyebrows with more than one puzzling setback. They tend to get the benefit of the doubt as recent national champions playing in the ACC. However, coupled with the way its season ended, Virginia remains primed for another early exit from the Big Dance.

• Region: West
• Matchup: 4 vs. 13
• Venue: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
• Location: Bloomington, Indiana
• Date: Mar. 20, 2021
• TV-Time: TruTV - 7:15 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Ohio Bobcats

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Ohio has covered ATS in 10 of its last 12 games. It is also a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against a team from the ACC. It is 5-2 ATS this season when closing as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in five previous neutral-site games.

The total has stayed UNDER in six of the Bobcats’ last nine games. The total went OVER in 13 of 22 games this season.

Seed: 13
Conference: MAC
Bid: Auto

• SU: 16-7
• ATS: 14-8
• O/U: 13-9

• Current Form (Last 5): 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U
• Notable Wins: None

• PS/G: 80.9 (17th)
• PA/G: 73.3 (259th)
• Off Rtg: 112.5 (18th)
• Def Rtg: 101.9 (219th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia has failed to cover in five of its last six games. However, it brings a SU nine-game winning streak in the month of March into Saturday’s contest. It was 1-3 ATS in four previous games at a neutral site this season.

The total has gone OVER in five of the Cavaliers’ last six games. It went OVER in 14 of 24 games this season.

Seed: 4
Conference: ACC
Bid: At-large

• SU: 18-6
• ATS: 11-12-1
• O/U: 14-10

• Current Form (Last 5): 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS, 4-1 O/U
• Notable Wins: Clemson, Georgia Tech (x2), Syracuse (x2), Louisville, UNC

• PS/G: 68.6 (249th)
• PA/G: 60,5 (6th)
• Off Rtg: 112.3 (20th)
• Def Rtg: 98.9 (138th)

First Round Predictions

Saturday's Late Action - Mar. 20 2 vs. 15 7 vs. 10 4 vs. 13 8 vs. 9 1 vs. 16 6 vs. 11 3 vs. 14 7 vs. 10

Key Players to Watch

Guard Jason Preston leads a group of five different players scoring in double figures with 16.6 PPG. He is shooting 53% from the field and 40.8% from three-point range. Forward Dwight Wilson III is second in points (14.9) and first in rebounds (7.5).

Forward Sam Hauser is scoring 16 points a game with 6.7 rebounds. Forward Jay Huff is adding 13.1 points and a team-high 7.1 rebounds a game. Guard Trey Murphy III (11.3 points) is shooting 50.5% from the field and 42.9% from three-point range.

• OHIO - Dwight Wilson (14.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG)
• OHIO - Jason Preston (16.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG)

• UVA - Sam Hauser (16 PPG, 6.7 RPG)
• UVA - Jay Huff (13.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG)

Head-to-Head - Ohio vs. Virginia

These two teams split a pair of games both SU and ATS in the early 2000’s.

March Madness Records & Trends

Ohio Bobcats

• All-Time Record: 7-14
• Last Appearance: 2012
• Deepest Run: Sweet 16 (2012)

-- Ohio has won three of its last five NCAA Tournament games.
-- Ohio has won at least one game in three of its last five NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Ohio has failed to score 69 points or more in four straight NCAA Tournament games.
-- Ohio has covered the spread in four of its last five games when playing on a neutral court.
-- Ohio has covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games.
-- Ohio has gone UNDER the point total in three of its last four games.  

Virginia Cavaliers

• All-Time Record: 35-22
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Champion (2019)

-- Virginia has won 10 of its last 13 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Virginia has seen two overtime periods over its last three NCAA Tournament games.
-- Virginia has been eliminated by a double-digit seeded school in two of its last four NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Virginia has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games.
-- Virginia has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games.

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