We are down to three days left in the Saratoga meeting, and thankfully, Hurricane Earl stayed out far enough in the Atlantic Ocean that it won’t have much of an effect on the weekend racing.
Today’s card features four stakes including a pair of Grade 1 races.
The marquee event of the 11-race card is the $750,000 Woodward (G1), which drew a field of seven older runners that will go nine furlongs on the main track.
Quality Road is the 1-4 morning line favorite, looking to bounce back off a tough beat in the Whitney Handicap (G1) last out.
The Todd Pletcher trainee set all of the fractions and was caught on the wire by Blame.
That snapped a three race win streak, the colt taking the Hal’s Hope (G3), Donn Handicap (G1), and the Met Mile (G1) in his first three starts this year.
It’s tough to take such a short price, but how the heck do we beat Quality Road?
I just don’t see it happening and the bridge jumpers are going to be out in full force this afternoon.
The $250,000 Forego (G1) is a much better wagering race, drawing a competitive field of eleven runners that will go seven furlongs on the main track.
As you can see below I settled on the likely favorite Vineyard Haven, but with the large field, the exotics should still pay decent enough.
To purchase my full card report for Saratoga that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 The Lena Spencer (1:00 ET)
#2 Rose Catherine 2/1
#1 Broken Dreams 10/1
#11 Canadian Ballet 8/1
#4 Extravaganza 12/1
Analysis: #2 Rose Catherine was a much the best winner last out at Monmouth Park in the Mongo Queen, taking the field gate to wire in a good looking effort. The filly has now won three of her last four starts, the loss coming three back trying to get a mile. She makes her third start of her current form cycle and owns a solid pace profile throughout. She is going to be a light price again in this spot, but Pletcher has her on edge right now.
#1 Broken Vows was a good looking Alw-1 winner last out in her second start against winners. She was beaten just a neck two back in her first start against winners after breaking her maiden by 14 lengths in the slop at Tampa Bay Downs. She still appears to have a ton of upside and is in good hands with the Proctor barn. Decent value here if we catch most of the 10/1 ML.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4,11
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,4,11 / 1,2,3,4,7,11
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 9 The Forego G1 (5:14 ET)
#1 Vineyard Haven / #1a Girolamo 2/1
#3 Big Drama 4/1
#8 Warrior's Reward 6/1
#2 Bribon 4/1
Analysis: #1 Vineyard Haven went gate to wire to win the James Marvin last out in the slop in his first start off an eight-month layoff. The colt put in three impressive efforts last year after returning from Dubai. First, he crossed the wire first in the Kings Bishop (G1) only to be disqualified. Then he looked beaten in the DeFrancis Dash (G1) at Laurel Park and somehow slipped up the inside with a good late run to win by a half length in what I thought was one of the most impressive performances from anyone all year. He then came up ¾ of a length shy in the Cigar Mile (G1). Seven furlongs appears to be the prefect distance for him and he should move forward in his second start off the bench.
#3 Big Drama was bumped coming out of the gate and chased the gate to wire winner Majesticperfection in a runner up finish in the A.G. Vanderbilt (G1). The winner was talking full advantage of a racing strip that was playing to inside speed that day. The colt seldom runs a bad one, landing in the exacta in 11 of his 14 starts. The last two times he missed a top two finish, once was in the slop and the other was in last year’s Preakness. The colt owns a solid pace profile throughout and fits well in this spot.
#8 Warrior’s Reward exits a sub par effort in a sixth place finish in the Met Mile (G1) at Belmont Park. The colt was closer to the pace that normal and after making a good middle move weakened in the stretch to finish 11 ½ lengths behind the winner. Trainer Ian Wilkes admitted he told Borel to stick closer to the pace, not wanting to let Quality Road get away to an easy lead. The cut back to seven furlongs should suit and Leparoux is back on board. Leparoux rode him in his last two victories including the Carter ‘Cap (G1) in April. The colt should bounce back with a better effort here.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9/5 or better
EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3,8
TRI: 1,3 / 1,2,3,8 / 1,2,3,5,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R1: 31 Broke Dreams 10/1
R1: #11 Canadian Ballet 8/1
R1: #4 Extravaganza 12/1
R4: #3 Cullinan 8/1
R4: #8 Lion Under Oath 8/1
R6: #12 Praetereo 10/1
R6: #7 Economic Summit 10/1
R7: #8 Striking Dancer 8/1
R8: #6 J L Bernstein 8/1
R8: #5 Duke of Naples 8/1
R10: #6 Tranquil Manner 15/1
R10: #7 Mythical Power 12/1
Good luck today!
