At the Gate - Thursday
November 15, 2012
By Mike Dempsey
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We tried to beat both chalks in Wednesday's pair of New York Stallion Series races, but both Sportswriter ($2.40) and Sunny Desert ($2.70) got the job done.
We did see a couple of bombs, with My Four Rewards coming from off the pace to win the second race on the card and return a hefty $142.50.
In the finale, with a two day carryover in the Pick 6 in the offing, Noosh's Tale pulled off the big upset, paying $111.50 for the victory.
At least a few sharp handicappers included Noosh's Tale. The winning combination of 8-2-3-4-9-2 in the Pick 6 paid $126,543, with the 5 of 6 consolation returning $395.
Looking ahead to Saturday we have a couple of good betting races at Churchill Downs, the $175,000 Mrs. Revere (G2) and the $100,000 Commonwealth (G3), both carded for the turf.
The feature at the Big A is the $150,000 Discovery Handicap (G3), which is led by Willy Beamin, a winner of six of eight starts this year.
Trainer Rick Dutrow claimed the three year old gelding for $25,000 back in March and proceeded to win five straight with him including the King's Bishop (G1) off a three day break.
The win streak snapped last out when he checked in second in the Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park.
We will also head down to the Bayou on Saturday and handicap the $1 million Delta Jackpot (G3) and the $500,000 Delta Princess (G3).
The Delta Jackpot could produce a starter or two for the Kentucky Derby (G1) next spring. A field of nine is entered including Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Hightail and Champagne (G1) runner up Goldencents.
I will include all of the stakes action in Saturday's Best Plays Report.
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Here is today's opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $14,000 (12:20 ET)
8 Elusive Jozi 2-1
5 Mizzen Donald 10-1
1 Jolienne 3-1
3 Primal Baby 4-1
Analysis: Elusive Jozi came up a nose short to Jolienne last out against $20K non winners of three or a race on turf in six months. The mare stalked the pace while wide, drifted outward and just missed while catching a muddy surface that was kinder to inside speed. The sixth place finisher Susannah came back to beat restricted $20K claimers in her next outing on Oct. 12. This race is against open $14K foes, but all of these raced last out either in restricted or state bred company. She can turn the tables here as she makes her first start for the RRod barn that is 21% winners first off the claim.
Mizzen Donald faded to finish a well beaten tenth last out against restricted $20K foes on the grass. The filly is now 0 for 8 on turf in her career and will appreciate the return to the main track here. She was good enough to beat Alw-1 optional claimers at Belmont Park back in June. We will toss her last outing and if she can run back to her effort four back she fits here and looks as if she is going to get overlooked on the tote.
WIN: #8 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 1,3,5,8
TRI: 5,8 / 1,3,5,8 / 1,3,5,6,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 Alw $59,000N1X (3:14 ET)
2 Chasing Piper 5-2
11 Yes It's Pink 2-1
10 Rakin' Gold 10-1
3 Porvoo 5-1
Analysis: Chasing Piper faced winners for the first time last out and ran pretty well, checking in third at this level on the grass at Belmont Park, beaten 5 3/4 lengths for the top spot. The runner up Love Stanza Chance came back to beat state bred Alw-1 foes in her next outing on Oct. 24. Levine seems to have tis gal heading in the right direction and she does not need to move forward much off her last effort to pick up the win here.
Yes It's Pink is sitting on the AE list but looks like a good fit if there is a scratch and she makes her way into the field. The Clement runner was a good looking maiden winner last out on the cut back to seven furlongs, drawing clear under a hand ride to win by eight lengths. She ran well going long two and three back in runner up finishes and still appears to have some upside.
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,11 / 2,3,10,11
TRI: 2,11 / 2,3,10,11 / 2,3,10,11,12
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #5 Mizzen Donald 10-1
R2: #3 Double Mint 12-1
R3: #4 Enchante 10-1
R4: #3 After the Bell 10-1
R6: #6 Rathskeller 8-1
R6: #5 Mulligan Man 8-1
R7: #10 Rakin' Gold 10-1
R9: #2 Rumack 12-1
Good luck today!
HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.
Last Year Mike had a solid Triple Crown, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick.
Mike has also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively.
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