At the Gate - Friday
November 16, 2012
By Mike Dempsey
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Friday's $80,000 Chase the Dream at Aqueduct drew a compact field of five and since it is such a small field it will go off as the second race today.
I landed on Beautiful But Blue (7-5), who tracked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late last out in a third place finish in the state bred Iroquois weakening to finish fourth but beaten just a couple of noses for the runner up spot.
The filly broke her maiden in her lone go over the main track here at the Big A and looks as if she can handle the extra furlong.
Opus A (2-1) returns off a 2 1/2 month break where she set the early fractions and weakened to finish in the runner up spot in the Saratoga Dew going nine furlongs. She finished fourth behind our top pick two back in the state bred Fleet Indian.
The mare has decent works for her return off the break for the Rick Violette barn that is 18% winners with runners coming back off a 46-90 day break. She seldom runs a bad one, landing in the exacta in 11 of her 17 career starts.
Completing the field are Miss Valentine (3-1), Color Blind (15-1), and Fiftyfour Forever (6-1).
Coming up on Saturday I will have a look at the $1 million Delta Jackpot (G3) and my Best Plays Report will include my strongest plays from Aqueduct, Delta Downs, and Churchill Downs.
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Here is today's opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md $16,000 (12:20 ET)
5 Westerday 5-1
4 Wimor Gold 5-2
9 Aunt Tipsy 3-1
6 Profitsharon 6-1
Analysis: Westerday was bumped coming out of the gate, dueled for the early lead, and faded to finish a well beaten ninth last out for a $509K tag in her second career start. She ran fourth in her debut at the Spa two back in a highly graded race that produced four next out winners. She comes back here with blinkers added and a class drop. I am hoping CVel sends her early and if she shakes loose early she may prove tough to catch in this spot.
Wimor Gold drops out of the maiden special ranks where she was not a threat in a sixth place finish in a field of six. Note that Ramon takes the call for a low profile outfit. The filly has seven sibs that are winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Mor Chances ($521K). The barn hits at a 19% clip (with a +ROI) with second out maidens.
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 4,5,6,9
TRI: 4,5 / 4,5,6,9 / 2,4,5,6,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (3:43 ET)
10 Karakorum Legend 10-1
1 Schoolyard Dreams 5-1
8 Right One 7-2
2 Mia Poppy 4-1
Analysis: Karakorum Legend exits a runner up finish in the state bred Mohawk at 17-1 and while this guy has done most of his best work taking on New York breds, he was a decent third at this level two back and won at this condition outside of the NY ranks last summer at the Spa. He is going to need to step it up a couple of lengths to win here but is worth a good look here if he goes off near his 10-1 morning line.
Schoolyard Dreams is wheeled back quick here having run second on Nov. 11 on the main track at this level, but we know the barn is great at this, winning at a 31% clip (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 1-7 day break. He only has two starts on turf in his career, but two back he was a game second, beaten just a neck against Alw-3 foes at Laurel Park. He comes in here sharp and nothing wrong with backing him if we catch most of the 5-1 morning line.
WIN: #10 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 1,10 / 1,2,8,10
TRI: 1,10 / 1,2,8,10 / 1,2,3,8,10
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R6: #2 Rocky F 12-1
R8: #10 Karakorum Legend 10-1
R9: #7 Stone Picker 12-1
Good luck today!
HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.
Last Year Mike had a solid Triple Crown, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick.
Mike has also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively.
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