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At the Gate - Thursday
November 21, 2012
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
Today's Thanksgiving Day card at Aqueduct gets underway early, with an 11:25am ET, and the finale later this afternoon is set for 3:10 ET, giving us all plenty of time to get to the dinner table and for kickoff for the Redskins/Cowboys matchup.
There are a couple of stakes on the card, starting with the fourth race, which is the $80,000 Lie Low, which drew a field of nine two-year-old fillies that will go one mile on the grass.
The entry of Mariel N Kathy and Heading to Toga are the 5-2 morning line favorites for trainer Dominic Schettino.
The stronger half of the entry is Mariel N Kathy, who is coming off a victory in the Chelsea Flower in her first start against winners.
Coconut Shrimp (3-1) was the runner up in the Chelsea Flower for trainer Todd Pletcher and Heart of New York (6-1) is coming off a strong maiden effort for trainer Chad Brown.
The feature on the card is the $150,000 Fall Highweight (G3) which drew a field of six, but it appears the 8-5 morning line favorite Poseidon's Warrior will scratch.
The Robert Reid trainee checked in third last night at Penn National in the Fabulous Strike in a race won by Ben's Cat.
I was leaning toward picking him in today's race, so perhaps we got lucky by the connections electing to run him at Penn.
Now favoritism will likely go to Caixa Eletronica, who has earned $1.5 million in his career and is looking to rebound off a seventh place finish in the Bold Ruler (G3) in his last outing.
Willy Beamin is back off short rest for trainer Rick Dutrow, who is quite adept at the move. The barn also sends out the speedy This Ones for Phil.
Completing the field are longshots Mine Over Matter and Small Town Talk.
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Here is today's opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $25,000 (11:25 ET)
5 Rice to Riches 2-1
3 No More Fives 6-1
4 Star Black 6-1
7 E Street Bourbon 3-1
Analysis: Rice to Riches drops back in for a tag here after checking in fifth last out as the beaten favorite against starter optional claimers in her first start off the claim by the Jacobson barn. The barn claimed this gal for $35K out of her maiden score in her debut when sent out by Pletcher. She was well backed in her debut and drew off to win by 5 1/4 lengths. The barn hits at a 27% clip second off the claim and this filly catches a softer group and picks up Ramon. The barn has been on a nice roll at the meeting, hitting with 6 of his first 15 starters here.
No More Fives won her first three career starts, breaking her maiden at the Spa for a $35K tag and then beating $12.5K and $10K claimers at Laurel Park in her next two starts. Last out she stepped in to face $25K foes, dueling for the early lead and weakening to finish fourth as the beaten fav. The filly owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers but there are a couple of runners in here that look capable of making sure she does not shake loose early.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 3,4,5,7
TRI: 3,5 / 3,4,5,7 / 1,3,4,5,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Fall Highweight G3 (2:42 ET)
1 This Ones for Phil 5-1
3 Willy Beamin 6-1
2 Caixa Eletronica 9-5
4 Mine Over Matter 8-1
Analysis: Poseidon's Warrior was looking good in this spot but the connections decided to run him last night at Penn National where he ran third in the Fabulous Strike. The scratch will be good for This Ones for Phil, who owns solid early and mid pace numbers and draws the rail. The gelding makes his first start since May for the Dutrow barn that is 21% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. The gelding has shown he runs well fresh and won the Decathlon back in May of '11 off a 14 month layoff. When this guy is on his game he is tough.
Willy Beamin is also sent out by Tricky Rick and is coming back quick having run on Nov. 17 in a runner up finish in the Discovery 'Cap (G3). He has shown he can win coming back quick, taking the King's Bishop (G1) just three days after winning the state bred Albany. The barn is 33% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 1-7 day break.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3
TRI: no play
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #4 Golden Cheetah 12-1
R3: #8 Missilewhileuwork 10-1
R5: #5 Mr Vantastic 20-1
R8: #4 Mine Over Matter 8-1
Good luck today!
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HORSE RACING EXPERT |
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Mike Dempsey
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.
Last Year Mike had a solid Triple Crown, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick.
Mike has also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively.
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HORSE RACING EXPERT |
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Jerry Sessa
Jerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins.
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