At the Gate - Thursday
December 27, 2012
By Mike Dempsey
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I thought I had a real shot of nailing a longshot in this year's Breeders' Cup Sprint with Jimmy Creed and in the Dirt Mile with Fed Biz, and they both came up short.
The both showed up on opening day at Santa Anita yesterday in the Malibu, and I thought they were both bounce back candidates, but I landed on The Lumber Guy as my top pick, with Fed Biz my second choice, and Jimmy Creed rated third.
The Lumber Guy was sent off at 4-5 and faded to finish seventh, a neck behind Fed Biz, who checked in sixth.
Sure enough, Jimmy Creed did bounce back, stalking the early pace, making a good move coming into the stretch and getting up to win by ¾ of a length, returning $19.20.
The pacesetter Private Zone held on for second at 15-1, the $2 exacta returning a hefty $80.60, and left me shaking my head for not rating Jimmy Creed higher.
We did manage to hit the exacta in the La Brea (G1) even though my top pick My Miss Aurelia was a disappointing third.
My second choice Book Review, who shipped in from the east coast and was saddled for the first time by Bob Baffert, got the job done and paid $11.60. It was a neck back to runner up Reneesgotzip, with the recommended exacta paying $53.20 and the trifecta payoff was $86.60.
Rain fell overnight at the Big A and the track likely is going to have some moisture in it. It is going to be a windy and blustery day for the nine race card that gets underway at 12:30 ET
Thursday's Aqueduct Report includes my selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for every race on the card.
Purchase my Monthly Package and receive an entire month of Aqueduct action and my weekend Best Plays Reports for just $99.95.
Here is today's opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $15,000B (12:30 ET)
5 Annelle 3-1
4 Newtie 5-2
6 Sugar Beach 5-1
1 Mon Rose 6-1
Analysis: Annelle set the early fractions and could not go with the winner in the stretch in a runner up finish last out at this level going a mile on the main track. The filly makes her third start since getting claimed by the Brown barn and holds the edge in early and mid pace numbers. She is one of three in here that has beaten winners and she is bred to handle a wet track.
Newtie ships in from Finger Lakes where last out the filly beat Alw-2L company as the heavy favorite. It was not a real tough group she beat, but she has run well in each of her three starts at that condition after breaking her maiden four back off a 3 1/2 month break. She ran pretty well two back in a runner up finish over a wet track and Ramon takes the call for the Englehart barn.
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 4,5 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,4,5,6,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 OClm $62,500N2X (3:48 ET)
2 Hard Life 8-5
4 Twice the Lady 3-1
6 Ode to Sami 8-1
3 Stephanie Jayne 5-1
Analysis: Hard Life drops back into the allowance ranks after a good effort last out in the Go For Wand (G2) on the main track here last month. The filly stalked the early pace, came with a three wide bid, ducked in inside the final furlong and was beaten just two lengths while catching a racing strip that was playing to inside speed. The filly beat Alw-1 optional claimers three back going a mile at Belmont Park. She has a win over the inner track and ran third in her lone go over a wet track.
Twice the Lady returns off a 2 1/2 month break here after checking in fourth last out against Alw-3 optional claimers. She stretches back out to two turns for the Tony D. barn that is 24% winners moving runners from sprint to route. She has dome some of her best work over wet tracks, landing in the exacta in five of six on off going.
WIN: #2 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,6
TRI: no play
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R2: #1 Buddys Afleet 15-1
R3: #7 Shotgun City 8-1
R5: #3 Sing Dixie Sing 8-1
R6: #5 Desert Traveler 10-1
R7: #7 Sea to Sky 10-1
R7: #3 The Kenosha Kid 8-1
R8: #6 Ode to Sami 8-1
R9: #5 Tahima 8-1
Good luck today!
HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.
Last Year Mike had a solid Triple Crown, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick.
Mike has also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively.
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HORSE RACING EXPERT
Jerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins.
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