I thought we had a good shot of beating Saginaw in Thursday’s Compelling Word with Awesome Vision, and we did get the win, but it turned out we had to share it.
The ultra tough Saginaw had won 10 of his 13 starts since the David Jacobson barn claimed him for $30,000, and was sent off as the 7-5 favorite as expected. I thought we would catch some value with Awesome Vision, but he was bet down from his 6-1 morning line to 7-2.
My main concern going into the race was how the track was playing. The first five races on the card were won by runners going gate to wire. Driven by Solar made it six in the seventh race, and Saginaw got loose early in the eighth.
Saginaw was clear in the stretch but Awesome Vision made a good late rally with Jose Ortiz aboard and caught Saginaw at the wire, producing a deadheat.
Our top pick paid $3.60 for the win and topped a $2 exacta that paid $13.00. We had the exacta with Saginaw on top as well, returning $9.80.
The finale on the card was won by Westerday, again in gate to wire fashion, and it is safe to say the track had a strong inside speed bias yesterday.
Awesome Vision was one of the few runners on the card that made up much ground, and he is worth watching when he runs back
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Here is today’s opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $16,000B (12:50 ET) 5 Cybertron 2-1 1 Rock Star Charlie 5-1 4 Chasing Moonlight 8-5 3 Missilewhileuwork 6-1
Analysis: Cybertron returns off a two month break here and drops out of a state bred Alw-2 optional claimer where the gelding was off awkwardly and tired to finish fifth after chasing the early pace. The winner of the race was N.F.'s Destiny, who came back to beat open Alw-1 foes in his next outing with a 101 Beyer. Two back our top pick was a sharp winner against state bred Alw-1 company, earning a near career top. The Serpe runner owns a solid pace profile throughout and finds a good spot here tagged for $16,000 and facing non-winners of three or four year olds.
Rock Star Charlie raced wide throughout and made a mild late bid to finish fifth last out against state bred Alw-1 optional claimers in his first go off the claim by the Galluscio barn. The gelding as claimed two back out of a win versus $12,500 non-winners of two. He draws the rail and owns solid early and mid pace numbers. He is going to need to move forward a couple of lengths off his career best two back to get the job done here but the barn does good work with recent claims and the 5-1 morning line looks fair enough to give him a good look here.
WIN: #5 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,3,4,5
TRI: 1,5 / 1,3,4,5 / 1,2,3,4,5
Analysis: Turboencabulator was the beaten 4-5 chalk last out at Philly, a runner up finish in her first go off a 9 1/2 month layoff. She stalked the early pace, came with a good four wide bid and grabbed the lead but could not stick with the winner late. The third and fourth place finishers in that race both came back to run second in their next starts. The Kenneally barn is 18% winners with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff.
Masasi makes her first start off a 2 1/2 month break here for the Donk barn. The filly checked in third in each of her three starts, last out her first go on the inner track. The $90,000 Keeneland purchase is out of a stakes placed Meadowlake mare that has dropped five winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Custom for Carlos ($483,865). This gal owns solid early and mid pace numbers and should be right in the mix early in this spot.
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 2,4,5,7
TRI: 4,7 / 2,4,5,7 / 1,2,4,5,7
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R3: #4 Chance Encounter 8-1
R4: 31 Precious Franca 10-1
R6: #1 Love Is Key Kaz 12-1
R7: #5 La Bella Chabella 15-1
R8: #5 Sky River 8-1
R9: #6 Final Foose 10-1
R9: #2 Change At Jamaica 12-1
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup. The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick. Mike also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively. No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike each day with daily picks from Belmont and Churchill Downs or capture the 2nd jewel in the Triple Crown with Mike's Preakness Stakes package. You can also get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins. Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.
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