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Editor’s Note: Anthony Stabile will be offering winning selections on the Kentucky Derby with analysis, plus inside tips for the entire Triple Crown.
Part I - Part II
With Derby Week upon us, what better time than to take a look at how the twenty or so horses still pointing towards Saturday’s 134th running of the Kentucky Derby got here. Only twenty can run in the Derby, so this first installment will almost certainly contain horses that won’t be in the starting gate come Saturday.
I can’t think of a better place to start than the individual who have caused somewhat of a controversy on this years’ Derby Trail, the filly Eight Belles. While it appears that Eight Belles will run in the Derby as opposed to the previous days Kentucky Oaks, she’ll be entered in both and I guarantee that if she gets stuck with a bad post in the Derby, she’ll run in the Oaks.
Controversy aside, this daughter of 1996 Derby favorite Unbridled’s Song is undefeated in four starts this year after starting her career with just one win from five starts for trainer Larry Jones. After winning an allowance contest at the Fair Grounds, she shipped to Oaklawn and started a three race stakes winning streak at the Arkansas oval, taking the Martha Washington by 13 ½ lengths
Next up was her graded stakes debut in the G3 Honeybee where she came from off the pace to hand Pure Clan the first defeat of her career, winning by a measured 1 ¼ lengths. Last out, despite trailing early in a field of a four behind tepid early fractions, Eight Belles got her act together in the stretch en route to a ¾ length win in the G2 Fantasy. Gabriel Saez will ride her.
While many will argue that Eight Belles, or any other filly for that matter, belongs in the Derby, there are some that feel Salute the Sarge has even less of a right to be there despite having secured more than enough earnings to start.
Last year, Salute the Sarge won the G3 Hollywood Juvenile and G2 Best pal before finishing second in the G1 Del Mar Futurity and G1 Norfolk, all over synthetic surfaces in southern California. In his lone dirt try, he ended the season with an abysmal ninth place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This year, he won the San Miguel at Santa Anita in his first start off a five month layoff before trudging home seventh in the G2 Lexington, two weeks prior to the Derby. While it’s doubtful he’ll run, his connections, including trainer Eric Guillot, still remain on the fence. Michael Baze would ride.
The owners of Lexington winner Behindatthebar should be commended for not automatically catching a case of Derby Fever after the victory. Another who has done his best work over synthetic surfaces (he’s won 3 of 4 starts), they’re leaving the decision up to his trainer, Todd Pletcher as to whether he’ll run in the Derby or not. Pletcher has said he’ll wait until Tuesday or maybe even Wednesday right before entry to make a decision.
In his lone try on dirt, Behindatthebar finished fifth in the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Bay Meadows and will be trying to buck one of the biggest Derby trends as he did not make a single start as a two-year-old. David Flores would ride.
Once considered a shoo-in for the Run for the Roses and a regular at the top of Derby lists across the country, Denis of Cork and trainer David Carroll may find themselves on the outside looking in come Saturday and will need some help to get into the Derby.
After breaking his maiden going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs last November, Denis of Cork won an allowance contest in the slop at the Fair Grounds before closing from well off the pace to win the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn in his stakes debut. His owners, who rely heavily on speed figures and “the sheets” when deciding when to run their horses, toyed with the idea of running twice more before the Derby but decided it was best to run just once more and settled on the G2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park.
Despite finding a touch of trouble going down the backside, Denis of Cork never fired as the even money favorite and stumbled home fifth, thus costing him dearly in the graded stakes earnings department. If all goes according to plan however, he should find himself in the starting gate on Saturday and will have last years’ Derby winning rider Calvin Borel in the saddle.
Smooth Air is a great example of how heartbreaking this game could be. In seven career starts, he’s never finished worse than third and this year alone won the G2 Hutcheson and finished second in the G1 Florida Derby last out, giving him more than enough earning for the Derby while providing his 70 year old conditioner Bennie Stutts Jr. his first Derby runner. Unfortunately for his connections, Smooth Air spiked a fever early last week and is now questionable for his Derby run. Manoel Cruz is scheduled to ride.
Finally, Halo Najib would need for everything to fall apart for many in order for him to get into the Derby starting gate. In eight starts, he’s won just twice, with both wins coming over synthetic surfaces including a score in the OBS Championships against Florida breds at the Ocala Training Center. Two starts back he finished second in the G2 Lane’s End at Turfway for trainer Dale Romans before an off the board try in the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland last out. No possible rider has been named.
