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Editor’s Note: Anthony Stabile will be offering winning selections on the Kentucky Derby with analysis, plus inside tips for the entire Triple Crown.
Part I - Part II
In this installment of our Derby countdown, we’ll take a look at some of the more impressive Derby prep winners from this years trail along with a few runners who’ll be trying to make the transition from the synthetic, or Polytrack, surfaces to dirt. Let’s start with a colt that falls under both categories, Colonel John.
In six career starts, Colonel John has never finished worse than second. Last year, he won two of four including a win in the Real Quiet out at Hollywood Park and finished out the season with a hard charging runner-up finish in the G1 CashCall Futurity.
In his first start this year, Colonel John defeated and out gamed the previously unbeaten El Gato Malo in the G3 Sham at Santa Anita before uncorking a furious rally under in the stretch to win the G1 Santa Anita Derby when he appeared to be hopelessly beaten on the far turn for trainer Eoin Harty.
Bred to love the distance, the biggest question Colonel John needs to answer is whether he can handle dirt or not after racing and training exclusively over synthetic surfaces throughout his career. He’s trained well at Churchill since arriving late last week, including a sharp five furlong work in :57 2/5 on 4/26 that capped off his serious preparations for the Derby. Corey Nakatani will ride.
One would have to believe that Colonel John’s connections had to be thrilled with the results of the years G2 Arkansas Derby as fellow Californian Gayego, another who had only been over the SoCal Polytracks, sat just off the pace to capture the signature event of the Oaklawn Park meet.
Before the Arkansas Derby, Gayego’s calling card, if you could even call it that, was a win in the 6 ½ furlong San Pedro in his first start this year out at Santa Anita. Two starts back, Gayego was forwardly placed throughout in the G2 San Felipe and grabbed the lead in mid-stretch only to fall ¾ of a length short to the now-injured Georgie Boy.
Trained by Paulo Lobo, conditioner of 2002 Kentucky Oaks upset winner Farda Amiga, Gayego answered both the surface and distances questions that some pondered before his win last out and should be up close to what figures to be a quick pace in the Derby. On 4/26, Gayego worked five furlongs over a muddy Churchill Downs strip in 1:01. Mike Smith, pilot of 2005 winner Giacomo, has the call.
Like Colonel John, Bob Black Jack is another Californian who’ll need to make the synthetic-to-dirt- transition this Saturday in the Derby as he looks to turn the tables on his West Coast rivals.
After winning two of four starts as a two-year-old, Bob Black Jack wired the Sunshine Millions Dash at Santa Anita to start the year before setting the pace when tiring to be third in the San Felipe, a length behind Gayego. In the Santa Anita Derby, Bob Black Jack lost a heartbreaker to Colonel John as he appeared home free at the 1/8 pole before getting run down in the final yards to miss by just ½ length. Trainer James Kasparoff sent his charge out for his final major move before the Derby, a half mile in :48 3/5 on 4/28 at Churchill and will have the services of jockey David Flores on Saturday.
While he may not be a Californian, I’d bet Adriano and his connections wish the Derby was being run over Polytrack as opposed to the dirt considering his fondness for synthetic surfaces and the turf.
In seven career starts, Adriano has three wins and second place finish on his resume. On the lawn, he’s two for four with a second. On synthetic tracks, he won the G2 Lane’s End at Turfway Park last out and finished fourth last year in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in two starts. That leaves us with one start on dirt that is filled with more excuses than promise or ability.
Two starts back, Adriano made his lone dirt start the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. He drew the far outside post 12 which was like Death Valley at Gulfstream this season, found trouble on the first turn and became completely unglued in the paddock before the race according to his connections. While the first two excuses are understandable, the third is alarming as they’ll be at least five times as many people at the Derby than there were at Gulfstream and that could prove to be lethal for this colt.
By the great A.P. Indy, Adriano is bred to love the distances and will be ridden by Edgar Prado, who won the 2006 renewal aboard the ill-fated Barbaro. Prado actually chose Adriano over both G1 Blue Grass winner Monba and G1 Wood Memorial winner Tale of Ekati. Trainer Graham Motion sent him out in company with another runner for his final serious work on 4/27, a five furlong move in 1:00 2/5 at Churchill.
Speaking of Barbaro, his trainer Michael Matz will look to run his Derby record to a perfect two for two when he sends out Visionaire on Saturday. After breaking his maiden at Laurel in his second start last year and winning an entry level allowance contest at Gulfstream to start his three-year-old campaign, Visionaire finished third to Pyro in the G3 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds and was one of only a few runners to have a clean trip.
Then, in the G3 Gotham, Visionaire’ wet-track breeding was aided by a sloppy, soupy Aqueduct inner track and he got a dream set-up as the early pace was strong to get up in the final strides before finishing fifth while racing very wide in the stretch in the Blue Grass last out in his Polytrack debut.
On 4/28, Visionaire worked a half mile at Churchill in :48 2/5 and will be ridden by the up and coming Jose Lezcano. While he hasn’t beaten much and there is plenty to worry about, as there usually is with many Derby runners annually, as to whether he’ll get the distance or not, the fact that he’s making up ground at the end of most of his races is viewed as a positive sign by many.
Perhaps the most overlooked of this years’ major preps winners will be Recapturetheglory, who went from obscurity to graded stakes winner when he wired six others in the G2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park in his last start.
After winning just once in four tries last season, trainer Louie Roussel, best known as the conditioner of 1988 Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Risen Star, took over the colts training and ran him in an entry level allowance contest on the grass at the Fair Grounds where he finished third after dueling on the lead for most of the way. The Illinois Derby win was just the second start for Recapturetheglory under the tutelage of Roussel and the improvement was remarkable as he led throughout to win by an expanding four lengths.
The flip side to his Illinois Derby upset is twofold. Not only was he able to get away with dawdling opening fractions before sprinting home, but it came at the site of his only other win, perhaps hinting that he could be a horse for the course at the Chicago area oval.
Recapturetheglory finished second in an allowance contest at Churchill behind fellow Derby runner Cool Coal Man and is one of only seven probable entrants to have a race over the course. On 4/25, he went five panels in 1:00 4/5 at Churchill and will be ridden by Eddie Baird.
From the overlooked to the over hyped, the last colt we’ll talk about today is the probable Derby favorite Big Brown. After breaking his maiden by 11 ¼ lengths on the turf at Saratoga last season, ¾ of the colt was sold for over $3 million dollars and transferred from Pat Reynolds barn into the capable hands of Rick Dutrow Jr.
Out of sight for over six months, Big Brown crushed four others in an off the turf allowance contest at Gulfstream by over a dozen lengths. Brimming with confidence off that victory, Big Brown made his stakes debut in the G1 Florida Derby a little over three weeks later. The result surprised many, but not the colts’ trainer.
Rick Dutrow won two races on the Dubai World Cup undercard the day of the Florida Derby but he stayed at Gulfstream with Big Brown and he was rewarded with a wire to wire thrashing of eleven others, stopping the clock just two ticks of a second off the track record, propelling Big Brown to the role of Derby favorite.
Nestled away down in Florida since that win, Big Brown worked a sensational five eighths at Palm Meadows training facility in :58 3/5 on 4/24 and will work later this week over the Churchill Downs course. Kent Desormeaux will ride him in the Derby.
