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At the Gate -- Thursday
July 24, 2008
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
For all your horse wagering needs, be sure to visit allhorseracing.com!
T alk about Mother Nature raining on a parade.
Saratoga got more rain in 24 hours than it seemed like it got all of last summer, and all five races were washed from the turf course on Wednesday and were moved to the main track, which was listed as sloppy.
My full card report featured 21 scratches. Those are just the horses I had listed as contenders. There were 45 late scratches in total.
Not exactly the way we wanted to kick off the 36 day summer meeting.
I had a tough time betting most of the races, but rain or shine today’s card looks better.
There is more rain in the forecast, but I’m ready for it. I’m going to take a stab we are going to be off the turf today.
There are four races scheduled for the grass on Thursday including the opener, which is a steeplechase race.
The two year olds take center stage today in the $150,000 Sanford Stakes. A field of seven will go six furlongs.
The 6/5 morning line favorite is the Wesley Ward trainee Notonthesamepage, who earned a 104 Beyer in just his second career start when breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs in April.
The price is too short and I’ll try to beat the chalk in today’s feature.
To purchase my full card reports for Saratoga that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, recommendations for today click here.
Today’s opener is a steeplechase race, so here is today's second from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:
SAR Race 2 Md Sp Wt (1:35 et) #5 Red Seven 5/2 #1 Not a Peep 3/1 #3 Stunning Electra 9/2 #2 Tough But Fair 12/1
Analysis: #5 Red Seven suffered a tough beat in her debut, beaten just a nose for the top spot while 6 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field. She returned as the chalk and regressed in her second start, pressing the early pace from the outside and fading to finish seventh. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and figures to bounce back with a better effort. She is by Gold Token out of a stakes placed mare that has dropped one other foal to race, 2 for 25 Winchester Bay ($43K).
#1 Not a Peep was fourth in her debut, racing greenly while down along the inside in the early going. She ran into traffic around the far turn into the stretch and weakening inside the final furlong. She took some play in her debut and looking for a move forward here. Bush is live at Saratoga and has hit at a 25% clip (with a +ROI) in state breds races here the past three meets. She was a $75K by, the first foal out of a Gold American mare. She is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track.
Wagering WIN: #5 to win at 9/5 or better. EX: 1,5 / 1,2,3,5 TRI: 1,5 / 1,2,3,5 / 1,2,3,5,7
Today’s Featured Race From Saratoga:
SAR Race 9 Sanford S. G2 (5:31 et) #3 Desert Party 6/1 #4 Notonthesamepage 6/5 #2 Dagnabit 4/1 #6 Vineyard Haven 5/1
Analysis: #3 Desert Party broke his maiden in his debut over the poly at Arlington and while the speed fig the colt earned is on the light side he was much the best and was sent out by Harty barn that usually does not have them fully cranked first time out. The colt was a $2.1 million purchase, by Street Cry out of a Tabacso Cat mare that has dropped three other foals to race including stakes winner Elliecat ($190K). The colt put in a good breeze over the training track and should take to a wet track. Figures to show plenty of improvement off his debut effort.
#4 Notonthesamepage makes his first start since popping a 104 Beyer in his second career start breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs going 4 1/2 furlongs. Three bullets on the morning tab since that outing. The runner up and sixth place finisher exited this guy's last start to finish first in their next starts, although sixth place finisher Cause Cause Cause was DQ'd from the win. Ward is always dangerous with two year olds, hitting at a 32% clip overall. He looks tough here but the price is going to be on the light side.
Wagering WIN: #3 to win at 4/1 or better. EX: 3,4 / 2,3,4,6 TRI: 3,4 / 2,3,4,6 / 1,2,3,4,6
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga R2: #2 Tough But Fair 12/1 R3: #3 French Song 10/1 R4: #11 Depose the Cat 8/1 R5: #2 Venado 8/1 R5: #3 Selective 8/1 R6: $7 Flibberjibit 8/1 R7: #9 Loose Leaf 12/1 R10: #1 Solid Strike / #1a Debating 10/1
Good luck today!
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