In Saturday’s Cigar Mile (G1) at the Big A I was torn between Vineyard Haven and Kodiak Kowboy.
Vineyard Haven had put in one of the most impressive performances I have seen this year winning the Frank J. DeFrancis Dash (G1) at Laurel Park.
Looking hopelessly beaten in the stretch, the colt rallied up the rail for the win, his second Grade 1 of the year after winning the Kings Bishop in his previous start.
Kodiak Kowboy had won the Vosburgh (G1) as my top pick in his previous race, paying $11.60 in a four-horse field. I thought we had robbed a bank after cashing on that race.
I made Vineyard Haven my top pick with fair odds of 8/5. Despite being sent off at 6/5, I went ahead and bet the colt to win anyway.
Kodiak Kowboy was my second choice, with fair odds of 2/1. He went off at 7/2, and returned $8.70.
It was hard to knock the performance of Bribon, who was second, beaten ¾ of a length or Vineyard haven, who was another head back in third, they both ran bang up races.
However, they were no match for Kodiak Kowboy, who finished strongly for the win with jockey Sean Bridgemohan aboard.
There is a good reason I include fair odds on all of my contenders in each race, and I certainly did not follow my own advice in the race.
I had just finished a turkey sandwich, and place the blame squarely on the Tryptophan.
I hope that you did not make the same mistake (betting on Vineyard Haven, not having leftover turkey).
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $15,000N2L (12:00 ET)
#4 Mighty Morris 4/1
#3 Mr. Vantastic 5/2
#2 Hue and Cry 6/1
#8 Coney Island 8/1
Analysis: #4 Mighty Morris is making his first start since May and certainly finds a weak spot here facing state bred $15K non-winners of two. The gelding broke his maiden three back in a game effort and then was beaten a combined 50 lengths in two starts against NY bred Alw-1 company. The gelding lands with the Kimmel barn that is 10% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. The gelding popped a bullet work, the best of 79 to go four furlongs on the Belmont training track on Nov. 23.
#3 Mr. Vantastic was off a step slow, saved ground and made a mild late rally to finish third last out in his first go against winners. He broke his maiden two back against open $25K maiden claimers on the turf. The gelding owns the top last out speed fig and encouraging seeing Johnny V. take the call for the low profile barn.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 2,3,4,8
TRI: 3,4 / 2,3,4,8 / 2,3,4,7,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 Power Lunch S. (3:44 ET)
#1 Malibu Moonshine 12/1
#4 Atoned 1/1
#3 Jane's Kid 10/1
#7 Borrowing Base 6/1
Analysis: #1 Malibu Moonshine has not won a race since February but he did run into repeat winners in 3 of his last 6 starts and has shown he can get a marathon distance. He won the Pleasant Colony over the main track here at today's distance back in '07. No doubt he has lost a step or two in the last year, but I'll take a stab he can regain his form with the stretch out if we catch most of his 12/1 ML.
#4 Atoned was not a threat in a fourth place finish on the turf at Keeneland, racing wide much of the trip. The winner of the race was Rahystrada, who came back to win the River City (G3) on Friday at Churchill Downs at 57/1. He won the Nasty n Bold two back going 1 1/2 miles in the slop at Belmont Park. He has finished first or second in nine stakes including winning a Grade 3. The 1 3/4 miles is a long trip to be holding a ticket on a 4/5 shot.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 6/1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,3,4,7
TRI: 1,4 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,3,4,7,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #8 Coney Island 8/1
R2: #2 Inheritor 8/1
R3: #3 My Luckey Penney 8/1
R5: #6 Honest Wildcat 8/1
R6: #1 Mesa Fresca / #1a In This Life 10/1
R7: #9 Great Emperor 15/1
R7: #10 Keeping the Honor 12/1
R8: #1 Malibu Moonshine 12/1
R8: #3 Jane’s Kid 10/1
R9: #7 Casa Di Vino 10/1
R9: #8 Timely Command 8/1
Good luck today!