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At the Gate - Wednesday
December 2, 2009
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
I t certainly is not glamorous, but it sure can be profitable.
The Aqueduct winter meeting kicks off today, with racing moving from the main dirt track to the winterized inner dirt.
This is the last week we will see turf racing in New York until spring.
So why the heck am I so excited?
For some reason, the inner track at the Big A has been very friendly to my bankroll over the past few years, and I am hoping for more of the same this winter.
A combination of key trainers, horses for the course, and knowing who the speed is is vital in handicapping the inner dirt.
Many think early speed is king on the inner surface, and at times that is true.
However, let’s not go overboard by betting on any horse that can get their head in front in the first furlong.
If we go back to last December and January at Aqueduct, I found just five days where I thought there was an inside speed bias.
For the most part the inner track played fair, and stalkers and closers actually had the advantage on five days during the two month period.
I’ll take a wait and see approach this week to see how the track plays, and the weather can certainly have an affect as well.
It looks like we will have a fast track to start the meeting, and a solid nine race card including an overnight stake.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:30 ET) #7 Samurai Moon 8/1 #6 Driven by Solar 7/5 #5 Nearly There 6/1 #1 Pent Up / #1a Believe in Love 3/1
Analysis: We move to the inner dirt today. #7 Samurai Moon is making his second start off a 5 1/2 month layoff and note the gelding took some play in both of his starts, sent off at 3/1 in his debut where he ran fourth and 2/1 last out off the bench, pressing a sharp early pace and tiring to finish fifth. There is plenty of early zip in here and breaking from the outside should give Garcia some options, and I hope he decides to track what should be a lively pace. The gelding is by FuPeg out of a Capote mare that has dropped one other foal to race, stakes winner Giant Moon ($396K). Decent value here if we catch most of the 8/1 ML.
#6 Driven by Solar is making his first start since February for the Pletcher barn that is 17% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. He ran into repeat winners in his first two starts and was put on the shelf after dueling for the early lead and fading to finish fifth last out going a mile on the inner. If he runs back to the figure he earned two back in his last sprint he would be tough here but hard to like him at the 7/5 ML price.
Wagering WIN: #7 to win at 9/2 or better. EX: 6,7 / 1,5,6,7 TRI: 6,7 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,3,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 Tate S. (3:44 ET) #7 Bold Union 2/1 #9 Yes She's a Lady 6/1 #1 Powder Princess 4/1 #2 Boodles 7/2
Analysis: #7 Bold Union dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish third last out in the slop at the Big M in the Seton Hall. The winner of the race was Tar Heel Mom, who returned to win the In Her Glory here on Nov. 11. She was in deep in her previous starts running with Informed Decision and Sara Louise. She has not seen a fast dirt surface since earning a career top winning a stake at Penn back in July. A couple of bullet works in NJ on the morning tab for a sharp barn in Breen.
#9 Yes She's a Lady set the early fractions and faded to finish fifth last out in the Poker Night, which was her first go off a 5 1/2 month layoff. This filly ran big two back in May in a one turn mile in the Deceit, winning by ten lengths. She is the lone runner in here with a win on the inner surface, breaking her maiden going long back in February. She should be tighter second off the bench.
Wagering WIN: #7 to win at 9/5 or better. EX: 7,9 / 1,2,7,9 TRI: 7,9 / 1,2,7,9 / 1,2,3,7,9
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct R1: #7 Samurai Moon 8/1 R4: #9 Southern Princess 8/1 R6: #5 Dreamnote 10/1 R7: #9 Crafty Shocked 10/1 R7: #7 Way to Karakorum 12/1 R9: #2 Lemon Shore 12/1
Good luck today!
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