We are three days into the winter meeting at the Big A and so far so good.
We have turned a profit with my top picks in each of the three days, yesterday knocking down Driven by Energy ($10.60) and Executive Search ($31.40).
The flu bug is still with me, and I guess maybe that is good news. As I said yesterday, I seem to do my best handicapping aided by a few “performance enhancers” like Tylenol and Thera-Flu.
At least I don’t have to produce a sample for a drug test.
Two trainers in today’s featured race of the day at Aqueduct are spending some time off thanks to a couple of failed tests.
The Richard Dutrow barn sends out By the Light in the $65,000 Garland of Roses Handicap, with the filly running in the name of his top assistant Juan Rodriguez.
Dutrow is serving 30 days for a drug positive at Churchill Downs. Salute the Count tested positive for an overage of clenbuterol after a race on May 2, 2008.
Kiaran McLaughlin was given 30 days for a positive test on three runners in Kentucky.
Bluegrass Princess, Liston and Hatheer all tested positive for the substance Ipratropium, a synthetic compound used to help keep the breathing passage clear.
The barn is running under the name of his top assistant Arthur Magnunson, who will saddle Saarlight
It is important to get to know the barn’s top assistants, because most of the time the barn does not slow down when the boss is away.
Rodriguez is a good example. Since taking over as the named trainer he has won with 5 of his first 16 starters at Aqueduct.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $12,500B (12:30 ET)
#2 Driven by Seattle 7/2
#7 Elusive Fantasies 5/2
#5 Cherokee Trick 4/1
#3 Gin Tango 12/.1
Analysis: #2 Driven by Seattle pressed the early pace and weakened to finish third last out against state bred $15K non-winners of three in the slop. She steps out of the NY bred ranks so she actually is facing tougher here but she does appear to be heading in the right direction form wise and she earned numbers four ands five back against NY bred Alw-1 company that are good enough to beat this group. The filly is bred to handle a wet track and has run fairly well on off going, landing in the money in 6 of 7 trips. She has a win and a couple of seconds in four trips on the inner and is in a sharp underrated barn with Barbara.
#7 Elusive Fantasies ships in from Churchill Downs where last out she was second versus $15K non winners of three. She was claimed out of the race by the Autrey barn that is 18% winners first off the claim. Her two wins have come on turf and Tapeta, but she does not have to move forward much off her last effort to get the job done in this spot.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 2,3,5,7
TRI: 2,7 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,7,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 Garland of Roses Handicap (3:44 ET)
#3 Distorted Passion 8/1
#5 Lady Alexander 5/1
#4 By the Light 6/1
#1 Saarlight 5/2
#3 Distorted Passion tracked the early pace form the rail and had no response late in a fourth place finish in the In Her Glory Stakes last out., her first start off a seven-month layoff. The filly figures to be tighter for her second start off the bench and the return to the inner should suit. She won back to back stakes on the inner track, both coming from off the pace. This race is top heavy with speed, which should set things up nicely for her late run. There is rain in the forecast and while she has not competed on a wet track, she is bred top and bottom to handle off going.
#5 Lady Alexander went gate to wire to win the Honey Bee Stakes going two turns, a race that Lopez basically just stole on the front end. The filly now cuts back to a sprint here for her third start of her current form cycle. Her other three wins have come sprinting and two of her wins have come on wet tracks. The barn is 19% winners moving runners form route to sprint.
#4 By the Light is making her first start since June for the Dutrow barn, with his top assistant Rodriguez the named trainer while he is on a 30 day forced vacation. The filly has won 10 of her 17 career starts including a pair of scores on the inner track. Both of her wins on the inner were stakes wins and her loss was to our top pick by a neck in the Foli Stakes last December. The barn can win off the bench and is not showing any signs of slowing down, winning with 5 of 16 starters since JRod took over.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 1,3,4,5
TRI: 3,5 / 1,3,4,5 / 1,3,4,5,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #3 Gin Tango 12/1
R4: #4 Major Star 8/1
R5: #5 Two Decades 12/1
R7: #9 Stormy’s Smile 12/1
R8: #3 Distorted Passion 8/1
R9: #4 Suttle Rich 10/1
Good luck today!
