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At the Gate - Thursday
December 10, 2009
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
I t’s not even winter yet.
Aqueduct canceled yesterday’s card, with several inches of rain hitting the area along with wind gusts that exceeded 40 miles per hour.
Horseplayers continued to get bad news as the day went along. Turfway and Hawthorne both canceled, then Beulah Park packed it in due to high winds after three races.
If you were tuned into TVG, you were left with a steady diet of harness action from Monticello and Freehold.
There could be two feet of snow on the ground and those two tracks would still be running.
The weather may not improve enough today in the Big Apple. The forecast calls for the rains to subside, but the winds could still gust as high as 40 miles per hour.
I’m hoping the weathermen are wrong, as there are plenty of juicy longshots on today’s card.
With Aqueduct going on a holiday break on Saturday for two weeks, that will give us a chance to look for a warmer climate to make a few bucks before the holidays.
Next week I’ll head off to Tampa Bay Downs, Fair Grounds, and Hollywood Park looking for our winners.
We won’t even have to bring a sweater.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $10,000N2L (12:30 ET) #3 Why Because 7/2 #4 Autumnlady 7/5 #7 American Land 4/1 #6 Ten Carrot Nikki 15/1
Analysis: #3 Why Because stalked the early pace and finished evenly last out for third, beaten a neck in a photo for the runner up spot. The runner up and sixth place finisher in that race both came back to win in their next starts. The filly owns a solid pace profile throughout and should get a good tracking trip just off the chalk and if that one is not good enough this gal should be in a good striking spot.
#4 Autumnlady went gate to wire to break her maiden for a $12.5K tag in her first start off a ten month layoff for the Asmussen barn. The runner up in the race was Siren's Call, who came back to graduate in her next start for a $12.5K tag on Dec. 2. The filly owns the top last out speed fig, and even a slight regression might still give this gal enough cushion to get the job done. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers, but there is a couple of in here that will make her earn it early. The price is just going to end up on the light side for the top spot.
Wagering WIN: #3 to win at 3/1 or better. EX: 3,4 / 3,4,6,7 TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,6,7 / 1,3,4,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (3:44 ET) #3 Saarlight 6/5 #1 Salt Water Reign 5/1 #2 Motor City Mama 6/1 #9 Star Over Malibu 10/1
Analysis: #3 Saarlight was scratched out of a stake o Dec. 5 and lands here in a easier spot facing Alw-2 optional claimers in her first start off a six month break. This gal showed some serious promise by passing her first allowance condition with a 101 Beyer in just her third career start. She has worked quickly for her return for the McLaughlin barn that is solid off the bench, top assistant Magnunson the named trainer.
#1 Salt Water Reign is making her first start since July for the Klesaris barn that is 21% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The mare has done most of her best running on the inner where she has won 4 of 8 starts. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and has run okay off the bench in the past. She fits here with her best and the 5/1 ML looks fair enough.
Wagering WIN: #3 to win at 8/5 or better. EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3,9 TRI: 1,3 / 1,2,3,9 / 1,2,3,5,9
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct R1: #6 Ten Carrot Nikki 15/1 R5: #8 Carmen Camacho 12/1 R6: #5 Foofs Melody 10/1 R6: #12 Sweetheartts Kiss 10/1 R7: #6 Triple Honor 8/1 R7: #8 Gimmearoutine 8/1 R7: #1 Volos 10/1 R8: #9 Star Over Malibu 10/1 R9: #4 Her Latest Flame 12/1 R9: #6 Gold Close to Home 15/1
Good luck today!
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