It looks like trainer Doug O’Neill will scratch Lava Man out of Saturday’s $100,000 Native Dancer Handicap (G3) at Hollywood Park if the rains come as forecast.
The gelding was scheduled to make his first start since last July.
Yes, I know Hollywood Park has a synthetic surface, so rain is not supposed to affect the racing surface.
There is not much in Southern California that makes much sense to me.
Friday’s card at Hollywood Park featured eight races and just 45 horses, an average field size of 5.6.
Saturday’s card is not much better. There are only 58 horses entered in the nine races, an average field size of just 6.4, and that is before scratches.
Makes the racing at the frozen tundra at Aqueduct look pretty good, doesn’t it?
A good option for horseplayers is Tampa Bay Downs, which opens today for its 91 day meeting.
The fields will be large, there will be turf racing, and the track recently reduced takeout. For the first time the track is also offering 50 cent trifectas and Pick 4’s.
We will dabble at Tampa over the holiday season with Aqueduct taking a two week break, including taking a look at today’s feature, the $65,000 Lightning City Stakes.
The five furlong turf event drew 14 runners (that is more than ran in the first three races at Hollywood Park on Friday), but the race is limited to 10 starters, with four sitting on the also eligible list.
Today’s $100,000 Queens County Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct is the last graded stake in New York this year.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 OClm $25,000N2X (12:30 ET)
#4 Hot and Bothered 3/1
#7 Zip of Fools 7/2
#1 Heather's Angel 6/1
#9 Anjorie 6/1
#4 Hot and Bothered is returning off a 3 1/2 month break for the hottest barn on the grounds, Tony D. hitting at a 42% clip (with a +ROI) here in NY over the past three month period. The filly passed her first state bred allowance condition in her last start at the Spa in the mud over #9 Anjorie, who came right back with a win at the level in her next outing on Oct. 4. The barn hits at a 22% clip with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. She broke her maiden on the inner back in January.
#7 Zip of Fools makes her first start since June for Tony's brother Chip, who is 2 for 6 (with a +ROI) with horses returning off a +180 day layoff. The was a perfect 3 for 3 for the barn after the claim before heading to the sidelines. She has three wins on the inner and looks like she should get a good tracking trip sitting just off the pace here.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 1,4,7,9
TRI: 4,7 / 1,4,7,9 / 1,3,4,7,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 Queens County Handicap G3 (3:44 ET)
#2 Researcher 5/2
#8 Storm Play 3/1
#4 Honour Devil 5/1
#6 Rodman 4/1
#2 Researcher is back from West Virginia to defend his title in the Queens County he won last year, giving trainer Jeff Runco his first graded stake. The gelding prepped with a runner up finish in the Mountaineer Mile where he checked in second as the beaten chalk. He did draw a tough post that day and raced wide much of the trip. Two back the gelding earned a career top winning the HBPA Governors Cup at Charles Town by 14 ¼ lengths. The gelding has won half of his 22 career starts and popped a bullet work on Nov. 28. He figures to bounce back with a better effort here and this field does not look as deep as the group he beat last year.
#8 Storm Play was the beaten chalk last out against Alw-3 optional claimers in his first start off a 10-month break. This guy showed some serious promise as a three year old with back to back triple digit Beyers beating Alw-1 foes, then winning the Best of Luck Stakes in the mud here last October. Pletcher gives this guy three months off since his return, which does not exactly look like a good sign, but the fact he sticks him here in stakes company is. The colt owns solid early and mid pace numbers and his best shot might be if he is able to shake loose early. With Johnny V. landing on our top pick, perhaps that 3/1 morning line might drift up a few points.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,4,6,8
TRI: 2,8 / 2,4,6,8 / 2,4,6,7,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Tampa Bay Downs:
TAM Race 9 Lightning City S.(4:07 ET)
#1 Cure for Sale 6/1
#4 Taletobetold 7/2
#2 Charlie Papa 10/1
#10 Easy Ashley 9/2
#1 Cure for Sale is returning off a two-month break, last out a fourth place finish versus tougher in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland going a mile over soft footing. Since coming to the U.S. from Argentina the mare has done most of her running at a mile, but did win twice going five furlongs on turf in her native country and the cut back in distance here should not pose a problem. She has shown she can handle any type of ground and has been in deeper company in her most recent starts. She has enough tactical speed to get into a good spot here early from the inside and should have something left in the stretch here.
#4 Taletobetold did not have any punch late last out at Churchill Downs versus optional claimers, and two back came up short over soft footing at Keeneland off a two month break. She liked the firmer footing she found at Arlington three and four back and earned figs in those two outings that are good enough to be in the mix here. She won fourth in this race last year, beaten just a half length for the top spot.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,2,4,10
TRI: 1,4 / 1,2,4,10 / 1,2,4,6,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #5 Stellwagen 8/1
R3: #2 Saxet Heights 12/1
R4: #12 Maneti 8/1
R5: #8 Remorse 12/1
R5: #9 Wheaton Home 8/1
R6: #8 Good to Be Me 15/1
R9: #10 Weekend Action 8/1
R9: #12 Triple Glory 15/1
Good luck today!
