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At the Gate - Saturday
December 25, 2009
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
T welve days without racing in the Big Apple is a looonnngggg time.
I have to admit by the fifth day my hands started to shake, and when you consider that the eleventh and twelfth days were Christmas Eve and Christmas Day when there is no racing anywhere, I nearly wagered a few bucks on the NBA, but came to my senses yesterday and watched “Bad Santa” instead.
We have a solid nine race card at the Big A today, which features the $65,000 Gravesand Handicap.
The heavy favorite is going to be the Scott Lake trained Pashito the Che, who comes into the race riding a three race win streak and is perfect in two trips over wet tracks.
I am going to try to beat him for the top spot, and in fact, it appears we can beat most of the favorites on today’s card.
My top pick is likely going to be the post time favorite in only one of the nine races on the card.
After spending a couple of days at the mall last week, I could use a steady stream of profits this weekend.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $10,000B (12:30 ET) #7 Remarkable Storm 6/1 #2 Geno Green 5/2 #5 McGlamery Road 5/1 #3 Brook Dance 5/1
Analysis: #7 Remarkable Storm had to steady in the early going and was not a threat in a sixth place finish last out behind #2 Geno Green's gate to wire score over what was a speed friendly racing strip that day. The third and ninth place finishers came out of that race to win next out. Two back he had some trouble early and made a good late rally to finish third. Ramon always tough when he is riding for this barn (27% winners) and note he is off the Chip Dutrow runner to land here on our top pick. The gelding has landed in the exacta in three of four trips over a wet track and there is plenty of rain in the forecast for this afternoon.
#2 Geno Green set the early fractions and managed to hold on by a nose to beat $12.5K non winners of three, taking full advantage of an inside speed bias that day. He has won three in a row and now makes his first start for the Autrey barn that is 18% winners first off the claim. The gelding is proven on the inner (4-2-0-1) and over a wet track (3-1-1-1).
Wagering WIN: #7 to win at 7/2 or better. EX: 2,7 / 2,3,5,7 TRI: 2,7 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,4,5,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 3 Gravesand Hcp (1:24 ET) #1 The Roundhouse / #1a Digger 3/1 #6 Pashito the Che 1/1 #2 Laysh Laysh Laysh 5/1 #3 Gold Trippi 6/1
Analysis: #1 The Roundhouse looks primed for a good effort here today in his third start of his current form cycle. Last out he made a mild late run to finish fourth carrying 127 pounds in the Fall Highwieght (G3). Two runners have come out of that race to run back and they both won, including the winner Cherokee Country, who won the Valley Forge at Philly in his next outing on Dec. 8. The colt does not fit the profile for the inner track but I am hoping for a regression from the chalk and the 3/1 morning line drifting up a notch or two.
His entry mate #1a Digger set a pressured early pace and weakened to finish third last out in a $25K starter handicap. The gelding seldom runs a bad one and likes and is bred for a wet track. He is a nice back up to our top pick.
#6 Pashito the Che has won three in a row and six of his last eight starts. The colt is also perfect in two trips over a wet track. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and with three straight triple digit Beyers will be tough to beat in this spot. He is coming off a pair of hard fought efforts, winning by just a head and a neck, and likely will be 3/5 in this spot. A bounce will give us a shot of beating him here.
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct R4: #1 Eightohsevenmain / #1a Classroom Legend 12/1 R5: #2 Dontquityourdayjob 8/1 R6: #10 Cayo Huso 8/1 R7: #9 Khan of Khans 10/1 R8: #6 Tranquil Manner 8/1 R8: #3 Blue Whistler 10/1
Good luck today!
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