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At the Gate - Wednesday
 
 
 

Lava Man was a disappointing seventh and last on Sunday in the $150,000 San Gabriel Handicap, his first start since returning from retirement and a 17-month hiatus.

Despite being able to set moderate early fractions, the eight-year-old gelding tired in the stretch as the fourth choice in the field of seven.

Trainer Doug O’Neill is blaming himself for not having the gelding tight enough upon his return.

The gelding received stem cell treatments on his chronic ankles, returning to training in September after being retired in the fall of 2008 after wining 17 races and over $5 million in earnings.

Not bad for a gelding that made his debut in 2003 for a $12.500 price tag.

O’Neill claimed him for $50,000 in August of 2004 and won 13 stakes with him including six Grade 1 victories.

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The trainer is not ready to give up on the gelding, who will turn nine years old on Friday. The gelding will be looked over by a veterinarian and likely will stay in training.

Still possibly on the radar is the $500,000 Sunshine Millions on Jan. 30, a race restricted for California and Florida breds.

While I generally like to see horses stay in training, I just have an uneasy feeling about Lava Man coming back off that layoff.

He has done enough throughout his career and treated his connection to a great ride over the years.

I can’t help but think retirement is the right decision for this veteran.

To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.

Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $25,000N2L (12:30 ET)
#9 Dr Paula Moynahan 4/1
#1 Claudette's Call 6/1
#2 Crema d'Oro 3/1
#3 Spring Elusion 5/2

Analysis: #9 Dr Paula Moynahan finished evenly last out in a fifth place finish at this level in her first go against winners. She broke her maiden two back for a $25K tag on a muddy main track at Belmont Park. She has made five starts and has not raced on a fast dirt surface. She had a decent drill on the inner here on Dec. 22 and still appears to have some upside potential. Ramon takes the call for Violette, the duo hitting at a 27% clip (with a +ROI). The barn is 21% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.

#1 Claudette's Call had to steady early and was not much of a threat in her local debut after shipping in from Chuck Town and going from Runco, a top conditioner at the WV track, to Contessa. She drops in for a tag for the first time and should have no problem here in her first go around two turns. She is by Johannesburg out of a Deputy Minister mare and is bred to go long.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 1,9 / 1,2,3,9
TRI: 1,9 / 1,2,3,9 / 1,2,3,8,9

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 OClm $75,000N3X (3:44 ET)
#7 Mt. Glittermore 4/1
#1 Carbonite 5/2
#3 Samhoon 5/1
#4 Smokin Hero 3/1

Analysis: #7 Mt. Glittermore tracked the early pace and drew clear smartly in the slop to beat $60K claimers last out. This guy seldom runs a bad one, landing in the exacta in 11 of 19 career outings. The colt has a win at this condition, coming at Philly this summer. Breaking from the outside the colt should get a good tracking trip sitting just off the pace and we should see a fair price.

#1 Carbonite had to steady at the half-mile pole and did not threaten in the stretch in a fourth place finish at 6/5. Two back in the Gallant Bob he checked in third behind a pair of next out winners. The winner Pachito the Che came back won the Dudley at Calder in his next start, then missed winning the Gravesand by a nose on Dec. 26. A clean trip from the rail makes this guy a legit threat here as the likely favorite for the Tony D. barn.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,3,4,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,3,4,5,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #8 Bird Box 10/1
R3: #3 Baroness 8/1
R4: #8 Indy’s Forum 12/1
R5: #12 Sand and Song 12/1
R6: #2 San Naa 15/1
R6: #8 Tire Kicker 10/1
R9: #1 Crazy Coyote / #1a Man in Grey 8/1
R9: #5 Morine’s Victory 15/1

Good luck today!

  
HEADLINES
Dempsey: At the Gate - Friday
Fed Biz earns dominant win for Baffert
One Last Dance wins at Aqueduct
Carbonite wins Santa Anita feature
Star of New York takes Big A feature
Fiona Storm wins Big A feature
Game On Dude wins at Santa Anita
I'll Have Another wins Lewis Stakes
Hansen, Union Rags head TC nominees
MORE HEADLINES
 
  HORSE RACING EXPERT
 
  Mike Dempsey
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.

For the third time in the last five years VI subscribers using Mike’s Reports had the winner of the Kentucky Derby. In 2011 Mike nailed Animal Kingdom with his top pick, the upset winner paying $43.20 to win, $19.60 to place & $13.00 to show!

In the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Mike hit Super Saver with his top pick, the winner returning $18.00, $8.80, and $6.00.

Street Sense was his top pick in 2007, the winner returning $11.80, $6.40, and $4.60.

No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track!

Mike’s Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card.

Join Mike each day with daily picks from Aqueduct or his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!

 
 
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  Jerry Sessa
Jerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins.

Jerry's debut on Friday 5/30/08 on VI resulted in 7 out of 10 winners at Mountaineer! His Best Bet in the 6th race cashed in for $25 on a $2 bet.

Jerry looks forward to working with everyone and making money for anyone who invests in his picks on a daily basis.

Join Jerry everyday with daily picks from Aqueduct or choose a package that contains selections from Multiple Tracks for the LOW PRICE of $14.95! Or better yet, how about 30 Days of horse racing picks with his Monthly Racing Package for ONLY $99.95!
 
 
  
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