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At the Gate - Wednesday
December 30, 2009
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
L ava Man was a disappointing seventh and last on Sunday in the $150,000 San Gabriel Handicap, his first start since returning from retirement and a 17-month hiatus.
Despite being able to set moderate early fractions, the eight-year-old gelding tired in the stretch as the fourth choice in the field of seven.
Trainer Doug O’Neill is blaming himself for not having the gelding tight enough upon his return.
The gelding received stem cell treatments on his chronic ankles, returning to training in September after being retired in the fall of 2008 after wining 17 races and over $5 million in earnings.
Not bad for a gelding that made his debut in 2003 for a $12.500 price tag.
O’Neill claimed him for $50,000 in August of 2004 and won 13 stakes with him including six Grade 1 victories.
The trainer is not ready to give up on the gelding, who will turn nine years old on Friday. The gelding will be looked over by a veterinarian and likely will stay in training.
Still possibly on the radar is the $500,000 Sunshine Millions on Jan. 30, a race restricted for California and Florida breds.
While I generally like to see horses stay in training, I just have an uneasy feeling about Lava Man coming back off that layoff.
He has done enough throughout his career and treated his connection to a great ride over the years.
I can’t help but think retirement is the right decision for this veteran.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $25,000N2L (12:30 ET) #9 Dr Paula Moynahan 4/1 #1 Claudette's Call 6/1 #2 Crema d'Oro 3/1 #3 Spring Elusion 5/2
Analysis: #9 Dr Paula Moynahan finished evenly last out in a fifth place finish at this level in her first go against winners. She broke her maiden two back for a $25K tag on a muddy main track at Belmont Park. She has made five starts and has not raced on a fast dirt surface. She had a decent drill on the inner here on Dec. 22 and still appears to have some upside potential. Ramon takes the call for Violette, the duo hitting at a 27% clip (with a +ROI). The barn is 21% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.
#1 Claudette's Call had to steady early and was not much of a threat in her local debut after shipping in from Chuck Town and going from Runco, a top conditioner at the WV track, to Contessa. She drops in for a tag for the first time and should have no problem here in her first go around two turns. She is by Johannesburg out of a Deputy Minister mare and is bred to go long.
Wagering WIN: #9 to win at 3/1 or better. EX: 1,9 / 1,2,3,9 TRI: 1,9 / 1,2,3,9 / 1,2,3,8,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 OClm $75,000N3X (3:44 ET) #7 Mt. Glittermore 4/1 #1 Carbonite 5/2 #3 Samhoon 5/1 #4 Smokin Hero 3/1
Analysis: #7 Mt. Glittermore tracked the early pace and drew clear smartly in the slop to beat $60K claimers last out. This guy seldom runs a bad one, landing in the exacta in 11 of 19 career outings. The colt has a win at this condition, coming at Philly this summer. Breaking from the outside the colt should get a good tracking trip sitting just off the pace and we should see a fair price.
#1 Carbonite had to steady at the half-mile pole and did not threaten in the stretch in a fourth place finish at 6/5. Two back in the Gallant Bob he checked in third behind a pair of next out winners. The winner Pachito the Che came back won the Dudley at Calder in his next start, then missed winning the Gravesand by a nose on Dec. 26. A clean trip from the rail makes this guy a legit threat here as the likely favorite for the Tony D. barn.
Wagering WIN: #7 to win at 5/2 or better. EX: 1,7 / 1,3,4,7 TRI: 1,7 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,3,4,5,7
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct R2: #8 Bird Box 10/1 R3: #3 Baroness 8/1 R4: #8 Indy’s Forum 12/1 R5: #12 Sand and Song 12/1 R6: #2 San Naa 15/1 R6: #8 Tire Kicker 10/1 R9: #1 Crazy Coyote / #1a Man in Grey 8/1 R9: #5 Morine’s Victory 15/1
Good luck today!
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