Things were going so well at the Big A on New Years Day I forgot there were bowl games on television.
We knocked down six winners on top in a row, from races two through seven, then we watched Mighty Morris come up a neck short at 11/1 as my top pick in the eighth race.
Ouch that hurt, despite still hitting the exacta and trifecta with my other two contenders in the race.
The six winners on top on the card produced a +183% +ROI for the day, and we hit six recommended exactas, paying $29.60, $11.40, $29.40, $9.80, $47.60, and $22.00.
It was a good way to start off the New Year, and we have another solid nine race card at Aqueduct today, including the $65,000 Count Fleet Stakes, our first shot of perhaps seeing a runner or two that might be good enough to hit the Derby Trail.
The Count Fleet has produced some good runners including Smarty Jones, Scrappy T, and Achilles of Troy, all past winners of the race.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Hcp $10,000s (12:30 ET)
#4 Wolfson 4/1
#3 Independence War 8/5
#2 Missile Motor 3/1
#8 Hurricane Heat 12/1
Analysis: #4 Wolfson is 2 for 2 since Jacobson claimed this guy for $25K, although he made his first start for the barn for just $10K two back. Last out the five year old was a sharp winner versus $20K claimers, which was his third win on the inner in nine trips. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and there is not much early pace signed up to go here and I am expecting to see Cohen send this guy early.
#3 Independence War won at this level last out in his first go for the Levine barn off the claim. The runner up and sixth place finisher in the race both came back to win their next starts and are also entered in here. The gelding had a productive '09, winning 6 of his 10 starts. Ramon sticks for Levine, who is having a slow meet here (2 for 26).
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 2,3,4,8
TRI: 3,4 / 2,3,4,8 / 1,2,3,4,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 Count Fleet S. (3:44 ET)
#1 Laus Deo 6/1
#2 Ibboyee 8/5
#4 Peppi Knows 5/1
#5 Turbo Speed 7/2
Analysis: #1 Laus Deo has shown improvement in each of his three starts, breaking his maiden last out going seven furlongs at Philadelphia Park in a sharp victory. The third place finisher in the race was Bulletproof Spirit, who came back to graduate in his next start on Dec. 28. The colt has plenty of pedigree to handle two turns, by Medaglia d’Oro out of an Alysheba mare that has dropped two other foals to race including two-time route winner Belle’s Cat. The barn has been very live at the meeting and is 29% winners moving runners from sprint to route. Pino was aboard in the colt’s last two starts and the jock does not make the trip to New York, but the Maryland based jock does not travel much, so I would not read too much into that. The 6/1 morning line looks fair enough.
#2 Ibboyee has only faced New York breds but does have three stakes wins on his resume, and he won that trio of races by a combined 16 lengths. Last out over a wet track the colt stumbled out of the gate and made a good late rally to win the Damon Runyon in his first trip on the inner. The colt earned the top last out speed fig and looks like he will be tough to beat if he runs his race, but figures to be a short price, likely around 4/5. Note two of his wins were on wet tracks and there may be some moisture in the track today with rain and snow in the forecast.
#4 Peppi Knows was a good second last out in the Remsen Stakes (G2) in his first route try. The colt that beat him is the highly regarded Buddy’s Saint, who had won the Nashua Stakes (G2) in his first start against winners and earned a 101 Beyer in that victory. The gelding won the Finger Lakes Futurity by a neck two back in the slop going six furlongs. He is bred to love a wet track and has one of Penn National’s top trainers in his corner. If the track comes up wet and his price drifts up a notch or two, we might want to take a closer look at this guy.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 4/1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4,5
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,4,5 / 1,2,4,5,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #8 Hurricane Heat 12/1
R2: #6 Ezzy 15/1
R4: #11 Poseidon 10/1
R5: #8 Gold Close to Home 15/1
R6: #11 Senegal 12/1
Good luck today!
