We turned a +27% +ROI with my top picks on Thursday, with three winners on top on the nine race card, paying $6.90, $10.40, and $5.40.
We had four recommended exactas ($26.60, $27.60, $50.00, and $32.40), and a disqualification in the second race cost us a fifth exacta.
Oaklawn Park kicks off their 54 day meeting today, and while I won’t be handicapping the track full time, expect to see most of the stakes races here in this column throughout the spring.
The stakes program at Oaklawn Park is outstanding, and will feature several key Kentucky Derby prep races.
The Arkansas Derby is the marquee event of the meet. The purse was raised to $1 million and the race is a Grade 1 this year for the first time in over 20 years.
The two key three year old preps for the Arkansas Derby are the $250,000 Southwest Stakes on February 15, and the $300,000 Rebel Stakes on March 13.
The recent list of Arkansas Derby winners is not too shabby: Papa Clem, Gayego, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex, and Smarty Jones.
The opening day feature is the $50,000 Dixie Bell Stakes, which drew a field of seven three year old fillies, including four stakes winners.
With a holiday weekend upon us, there is racing at Oaklawn Park (as well as the Big A) right through Monday.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $25,000N2L (12:30 ET)
#2 San Naa 4/1
#5 Turaath 1/1
#3 Good Karma 12/1
#6 Jed Greeley 6/1
Analysis: #2 San Naa set the early fractions and held on gamely, beaten just a neck for the top spot last out in a three way photo. The gelding struggled while under the care of the low % Sciacca barn but appears to be on the improve since arriving in the Toscano barn. The gelding owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and he looks capable of taking these gate to wire under the bug Serpa, who picked up three wins on Wednesday's card.
#5 Turaath stretches out to two turns after a third place finish going six furlongs last out. The five year old broke his maiden going a one turn mile back in Nov. of '08 in a race taken off the turf. His career top speed fig came at nine furlongs at the Spa, so the stretch out may suit. He makes his third start off the claim by the Jacobson barn that is having a solid meeting, but hard to get excited about the 1/1 ML.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,3,5,6
TRI: 2,5 / 2,3,5,6 / 2,3,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 Alw $41,000N1X (3:49 ET)
#1 Stormy's Smile 10/1
#5 Crafty Shocked 4/1
#8 Imthequeenofqueens 3/1
#2 Split Pot 12/1
Analysis: #1 Stormy's Smile popped a bullet work out of the gate on Jan. 7 for her first start off a 7 1/2 month layoff. The filly won a stake in her third career start going a mile and then misfired badly in her two following starts, then went to the sidelines. She broke her maiden in that stakes win which makes her still eligible for this Alw-1 level and it is not a real tough spot. The barn is 3 for 7 (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff.
#5 Crafty Shocked was beaten just a neck two back against $15K non winners of two in her first go for the Chip Dutrow barn off the claim. She was not a threat last out at this level but now is making her third start of her current form cycle for a sharp outfit. She looks primed for a good effort here and I am hoping her price drifts up a notch or two.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,2,5,8
TRI: 1,5 / 1,2,5,8 / 1,2,5,8,9
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park
OP Race 8 Dixie Belle Stakes (4:33 CT)
#5 Vertical Vision 5/2
#6 Shotgun Gulch 6/1
#4 Decelerator 8/5
#2 Rapid Racer 8/1
#5 Vertical Vision is a well travelled filly making a start over her sixth different track here. The Asmussen filly was the beaten chalk last out at Remington Park in a state bred stake. She pressed the early pace from the outside, took over the lead and went clear but was run down late by #6 Shotgun Glitch. She had a tough trip two back in the Pocahontas (G3) at Churchill Downs, having to race in traffic on the far turn and steadied in upper stretch. The winner Sassy Image came back to win the Golden Rod (G2) in her next start. She owns a solid pace prolife throughout and is a two time stakes winner. The filly just needs a good trip sitting just off the pace to score here.
#6 Shotgun Glitch got a solid early pace to run at last out at Remington and ran them down in the stretch for her second stakes win. There is plenty of early speed in here to set things up for her again. Her lone loss came two back when trying turf and catching a soft turf course at Retama. She made a good middle move in that effort and weakened in the stretch to finish fourth. She owns the edge in late pace numbers with the main knock on this gal being the barn switch to Kim Ewing, who won just three races last year.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 2,4,5,6
TRI: 5,6 / 2,4,5,6 / 1,2,4,5,6
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #3 Good Karma 12/1
R3: #5 Dubit 10/1
R4: #2 Wheelsareoffthebus 12/1
R6: #3 Viable 8/1
R7: #2 Freddy the Cap 20/1
R8: #1 Stormy’s Smile 10/1
R8: #2 Split Pot 12/1
R9: #2 Commissioner Chris 12/1
Good luck today!
