When I first started looking at Saturday’s past performances, all I seemed to find was short fields in the stakes races.
The San Rafael and San Ynez Stakes at Santa Anita drew a combined 11 runners. The Evening Attire at Aqueduct drew just six runners and five betting interests.
The American Beauty Stakes at Oaklawn Park drew just seven fillies and mares.
However, once I started digging into the remainder of the card at the Big A, all I found was big fields and wide open races.
There are plenty of live longshots on today’s card, and in five of the nine races on the card, my top pick is 8/1 or higher on the morning line.
Granted, three of the big fields are New York bred maiden races, but I’ll take it. The card today really looks like it can produce some nice payoffs if we are right a couple of times.
I included today’s stake at Oaklawn Park in today’s column as well.
The American Beauty drew a decent field and we should be able to catch a fair piece on my top pick, the Steve Asmussen trained Valid Code.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $20,000B (12:30 ET)
#9 O'Kid 2/1
#7 Frazil 7/2
#1 King Bo Bo / #1a Lofty Banner 5/1
#4 Woodacre 9/2
Analysis: #9 O'Kid is coming off a third place finish versus open $25K claimers in the mud and drops into a softer spot here facing non winners of four. Last out he saved ground early, came with a three wide run around the far turn and opened up a clear lead in the stretch before running out of gas. The fifth place finisher in the race was Marina Market, who returned to beat $16K non winners of a race in six months in his next outing on Jan. 10. The Tony D. barn is 25% winners second off the claim looks well spotted here and should get a lively early pace to run at here.
#7 Frazil makes his first start since September for the Rice barn that is 24% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The gelding has won 4 of 6, three of those wins coming at Finger Lakes. Last out he went gate to wire to beat Alw-4L foes as the short priced favorite. The runner up Wiseman's Prospect, who beat state bred allowance foes in his next start on Oct. 6. The gelding has a light work tab since his last start, just a pair of published works, but the barn usually has them ready to go off the bench.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 7,9 / 1,4,7,9
TRI: 7,9 / 1,4,7,9 / 1,2,4,7,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (3:49 ET)
#2 Vicious Rapids 15/1
#5 Elusive Gift 5/2
#3 Silent Valor 2/1
#1 Executive Search / #1a Have You Ever 7/2
Analysis: #2 Vicious Rapids has raced six times, all on the fake stuff at Presque Isle. Last out the gelding chased the early pace and weakened to finish fourth against Alw-3L company. Although that was at PI, that was a tough group. The winner Brass Bay came back to finish a game second in the Ky. Cup Sprint (G3) at Turfway Park. The runner up War Fighter came back to beat Alw-2 foes, then checked in third beaten a length in the Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The gelding has a couple of good breezes over the dirt at Belmont Park and is in good hands with the Ferraro barn. The 15/1 ML looks generous. The barn is sporting a 5 for 8 mark (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
#5 Elusive Gift is making his first start since June for the Tony D. barn that is 30% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. The gelding has won 2 of 3 over the inner surface including a gate to wire score two back last March versus Alw-2L company. The gelding owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and figures to be tough to run down.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 6/1 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 1,2,3,5
TRI: 2,5 / 1,2,3,5 / 1,2,3,5,6
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park
OP Race 8 American Beauty Stakes (4:33 CT)
#1 Valid Code 5/2
#3 Syriana’s Song 8/1
#5 One Smokin’ Lady 2/1
#6 Auspicious 9/2
#1 Valid Code is coming off a smart win last out at Sam Houston in the Texas bred Yellow Rose Stakes. The filly has won four of her five starts, her lone loss a runner up finish in a stake at Retama in her first start against winners. The runner up in her last start was Stealth Cat, who came back to win the Bold Ego Stakes at Sunland Park on Dec. 27. The filly owns a solid pace profile throughout with the edge in late pace numbers. She looks like the strongest of the pair last year’s nationwide leader in the trainer standings is sending out here.
#3 Syriana’s Song is returning off a 2 ½ month break for the Tom Amoss barn. The mare came up short in the Dream Supreme Stakes in her last start at Churchill Downs, checking in sixth while beaten 3 ¾ lengths for the top spot. The winner of the race was She’s Our Annie, who returned to win the Esplande Stakes at Fair Grounds on Dec. 19. She has moved forward since shifting to the Amoss barn including popping a 103 Beyer three back winning a non winners of four allowance race at Mountaineer Park. She fits here with her best and has a strong barn in her corner.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,2,3,5,6
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #8 Cocobolo 15/1
R2: #4 Cayo Hueso 8/1
R3: #3 More Than a Reason 8/1
R4: #9 One Turn Eddie 8/1
R5: #6 Laudable 12/1
R5: #1 Mr. Bourbon Street 8/1
R7: #3 Star Over Malibu 12/1
R8: #2 Vicious Rapids 15/1
R9: #7 Morine’s Victory 8/1
R9: #10 Hurricane Heat 20/1
Good luck today!
