All morning yesterday I fretted about picking Radiohead in the Florida Derby. I did not think the pace set up would work out for the favorite Rule, and I was looking for a better option.

I started second guessing myself from the minute I woke up, and it did not get any better when I heard Frank Lyons on TVG question Radiohead’s ability to get two turns.

A former trainer, Lyons does some consulting and bloodstock work for IEAH, the majority owner of Radiohead.

Radiohead was 3/1, and I ended up betting my second choice First Dude to win at 14/1, which I thought was pretty decent odds.

The race just screamed longshot, and the fourth and fifth place finishers behind Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) ended up running one-two in the race to combine for a $509.60 exacta.

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The winner was Ice Box ($43.40), who went from last to first to win by a nose over Pleasant Prince.

The winner is trained by Nick Zito, the runner up conditioned by Wesley Ward, two top conditioners who the public let go at odds of 21/1 and 29/1 respectively.

Ice Box was off poorly in the Fountain of Youth and raced wide behind a fairly slow pace. He looked like a colt on the improve and already had a win at nine furlongs over the surface.

Meanwhile I picked Radiohead, breaking from a really tough post at an underlay of a price.

That was indeed an excellent example of terrible handicapping.

We did much better in the feature at Aqueduct. I did not like the favorite Bickersons, and my second choice Liam’s Dream ($13.60) got the job done, topping a recommended exacta that returned $69.00.

To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.

Here is today's opener from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 OClm $50,000N2X (1:00 ET)
#6 Valid Sum 2/1
#3 Peace Town 7/2
#1 Have You Ever 4/1
#5 Pay in Kind 6/1

Analysis: #6 Valid Sun came back off a seven month layoff with a very impressive Alw-1 score, despite stumbling out of the gate and coming with a wide run. Both of this guy's wins have come on the inner and the barn hits at a 30% clip (with a +ROI) with horses making their second start off a +180 day layoff. The colt earned the top last out speed fig but won't have things easy as this is a pretty tough group.

#3 Peace Town tracked the early pace and came up the inside with a good finish to win at this condition for the Trombetta barn. The colt bounced back nicely after failing to fire in the Paumonok two back, which was off a two month break. The colt looks capable of winning right back here in his third start of his current form cycle.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 1,3,6
TRI: no play

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 Wheel Turns S. (4:25 ET)
#2 Hour Glass 6/5
#4 Heaven's Voice 10/1
#6 Hold That Prospect 4/1
#8 Lights Off Annie 5/1

Analysis: #2 Hour Glass was beaten just a half length last out when fourth in the Barbara Fritchie (G2) at Laurel Park. The winner of the race was Sweet Goodbye, who came back to win the Maryland bred Conniver in her next outing on March 13. The filly really has not run a bad one in her six career starts, missing an exacta finish for the first time in her last outing. She makes her third start of her current form cycle for Pletcher, who is popping at a 37% clip at the meet.

#4 Heaven's Voice lost any chance last out when she spotted the field a couple of lengths when stumbling badly coming out of the gate. She ran decent in a runner up finish behind the gate to wire winner #4 Hold That Prospect, who won the restricted Mommy Dear in her next start on Feb. 25. She put in a bullet work at Grove's home base Bowie and Ramon takes the call. Worth tossing in the mix here if we catch most of the 10/1 ML.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 8/5 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,6,8
TRI: 2,4 / 2,4,6,8 / 2,4,6,7,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R3: #2 Smarty Karakorum 20/1
R5: #6 Pink Viper 10/1
R5: #9 Hard Iron 12/1
R6: #6 Strings and Arrows 20/1
R7: #6 Mighty Ego 10/1
R7: #8 Crescent’s Mon 10/1
R8: #4 Heaven’s Voice 10/1
R9: #2 Dixielore 12/1
R9: #3 Pink Freud 15/1

Good luck today!