NBA MVP Odds: Embiid Falls as Minimum Game Requirement Looms

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

2 minute read

For a brief moment, it seemed like Sixers center Joel Embiid was poised to reclaim the MVP throne as the reigning award winner went off for 41 points in a statement win over the Nuggets on January 16, and then erupted for 70 points in a win over the Spurs on January 22 – which resulted in Embiid rising to top of the MVP odds board.

However, that moment was very short-lived. Embiid has missed two of the Sixers’ last three contests, and in his return to action on Tuesday night, he scored just 14 points on 28% from the field in a nationally televised loss to the Warriors – and just like that, Embiid’s odds have quickly plummeted to +1500 at BetMGM and DraftKings.

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Mvp Winner Odds

Time	Bet365	BetMGM	DraftKings	ESPNBet	FanDuel	RiversCasino
	›	›	›	›	›	›
Nikola Jokic	+210	+220	+200	+190
Nikola Jokic					+200
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+250	+280	+250	+260
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander					+280
Giannis Antetokounmpo	+900	+1000	+700	+1000
Luka Doncic					+700
Luka Doncic	+700	+700	+800	+700
Anthony Edwards	+1200	+1400	+1000	+1500
See All
Giannis Antetokounmpo					+1000
Victor Wembanyama					+1500
Anthony Edwards					+1500
Victor Wembanyama	+1400	+1300	+1600	+1500
Cade Cunningham	+4000	+4000	+3000	+5000
Jalen Brunson	+3300	+3000	+3500	+2500
Jalen Brunson					+3500
Cade Cunningham					+3500
Kevin Durant					+4500
Donovan Mitchell					+4500
Paolo Banchero					+5000
Joel Embiid	+7500	+10000	+7000	+8000
Stephen Curry					+7000
Kevin Durant	+7500	+8000	+8000	+5000
Donovan Mitchell	+5000	+5000	+8000	+4000
Paolo Banchero	+5000	+6600	+8000	+5000
Jaylen Brown					+10000
Anthony Davis					+10000
Jaylen Brown	+10000	+10000	+10000	+7500
Anthony Davis	+7500	+8000	+10000	+7500
Joel Embiid					+10000
Trae Young					+10000
Ja Morant	+12500	+15000	+12000	+15000
Josh Giddey	+12500
Kawhi Leonard					+15000
Stephen Curry	+7500	+6600	+15000	+8000
Ja Morant					+15000
Devin Booker					+15000
LeBron James	+12500	+15000	+15000	+15000
LeBron James					+15000
Devin Booker	+15000	+12500	+18000	+12500
Evan Mobley					+20000
Tyrese Maxey					+20000
Evan Mobley	+25000	+20000	+25000	+20000
Karl-Anthony Towns	+25000	+25000	+25000	+25000
Pascal Siakam	+30000	+50000	+25000	+50000
Zion Williamson					+30000
Jaren Jackson	+40000	+25000	+30000
LaMelo Ball					+30000
Karl-Anthony Towns					+30000
Trae Young	+20000	+12500	+30000	+10000
Tyrese Maxey	+30000	+15000	+40000	+25000
Alperen Sengun	+30000	+25000	+40000	+40000
Franz Wagner					+40000
Jalen Williams					+40000
Alperen Sengun					+40000
Chet Holmgren	+30000	+50000	+40000
James Harden	+40000	+50000	+40000	+50000
Kawhi Leonard	+25000	+15000	+40000	+15000
Zion Williamson	+30000	+25000	+40000	+25000
Cooper Flagg					+50000
Jamal Murray					+50000
Jimmy Butler	+50000	+50000	+50000	+50000
DeMar DeRozan	+50000	+50000	+50000
Derrick White	+50000		+50000
Amen Thompson					+50000
Desmond Bane	+50000	+25000	+50000	+50000
Cooper Flagg	+50000	+25000	+50000
Julius Randle	+50000	+50000	+50000	+50000
Domantas Sabonis	+50000	+50000	+50000	+50000
Lauri Markkanen	+50000	+50000	+50000
Darius Garland					+50000
Bam Adebayo					+50000
Bam Adebayo	+50000	+25000	+50000	+50000
De'Aaron Fox	+50000	+50000	+50000	+50000
Franz Wagner	+40000	+25000	+50000	+25000
Darius Garland	+50000	+50000	+50000	+50000
Desmond Bane					+50000
Paul George					+50000
Jaren Jackson					+50000
James Harden					+50000
Austin Reaves	+50000		+50000
Tyler Herro					+50000
LaMelo Ball	+30000	+20000	+50000	+25000
Jalen Green	+50000	+25000	+50000	+50000
De'Aaron Fox					+50000
Jalen Williams	+40000	+50000	+50000	+40000
Zach LaVine					+50000
Jamal Murray		+50000	+50000	+50000
Julius Randle					+50000
Jalen Green					+50000
Scottie Barnes	+50000	+50000	+50000	+50000
Scottie Barnes					+50000
Jimmy Butler					+50000
Pascal Siakam					+50000
Domantas Sabonis					+50000
Tyler Herro	+50000	+50000	+50000	+50000
Amen Thompson	+50000	+25000	+50000	+50000
Dejounte Murray	+50000		+50000
Tre Johnson		+50000
VJ Edgecombe		+50000
Brandon Ingram		+50000
Dylan Harper		+50000
Klay Thompson		+50000
Ace Bailey		+50000
Josh Hart		+50000
Jarrett Allen		+50000
Kon Knueppel		+50000
Mikal Bridges		+50000
Russell Westbrook		+50000
Malik Monk		+50000
Cam Thomas		+50000
Scoot Henderson		+50000
Zach LaVine	+50000	+50000	+50000	+50000
Brandon Miller		+50000
Paul George	+50000	+50000	+70000	+50000
Stephon Castle	+50000		+70000

Embiid was really bad against Golden State on Tuesday night as he tried to battle through another injury. However, the latest shift in the MVP odds isn’t a result of the big man’s latest outing; it’s a result of the two games he missed prior to that.

Caesars and bet365 are still listing Embiid in the +150 to +350 range. However, don’t walk into that trap.

Starting this season, players must play a minimum of 65 games in order to be considered for NBA awards voting as a part of the league’s new anti-load management protocols – which means that players who miss more than 17 games will be automatically excluded from the voting pool.

Embiid has already missed 12 of Philly’s 46 games. So with almost half of the season left to play, Embiid can only miss five more games in order to contend for the MVP award – and if you are familiar with the big man’s medical history, you already know there’s a good chance of him falling short of that minimum game requirement.

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Also Keep an Eye On

Most Improved Player Odds

Time	ESPNBet
	›
Andrew Nembhard	+1000
Deni Avdija	+1200
Bennedict Mathurin	+1600
Amen Thompson	+2000
Jonathan Kuminga	+2000
Shaedon Sharpe	+2000
Scoot Henderson	+2200
Brandon Miller	+2500
See All
Josh Giddey	+2500
Ausar Thompson	+2500
Jaylen Wells	+2800
Jalen Johnson	+3300
Derrick White	+3300
Jaden Ivey	+3300
Jalen Suggs	+4000
Christian Braun	+5000
Quentin Grimes	+5000
Toumani Camara	+5000
Victor Wembanyama	+5000
Max Christie	+5000
Jared McCain	+5000
Jalen Duren	+6000
Chet Holmgren	+6000
Davion Mitchell	+6000
Jalen Green	+6000
Donovan Clingan	+6000
Matas Buzelis	+6600
Isaiah Collier	+6600
Scottie Barnes	+6600
Anfernee Simons	+6600
Cam Whitmore	+6600
Jaden McDaniels	+6600
Desmond Bane	+6600
Bilal Coulibaly	+6600
Cam Thomas	+6600
AJ Green	+7500
Aaron Nesmith	+7500
Keyonte George	+7500
Santi Aldama	+7500
Bub Carrington	+7500
Keegan Murray	+8000
Kyle Filipowski	+8000
Kel'el Ware	+8000
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	+8000
Stephon Castle	+8000
Jabari Smith	+8000
Dereck Lively	+8000
Guerschon Yabusele	+10000
Miles Bridges	+10000
Herbert Jones	+10000
Miles McBride	+10000
Ziaire Williams	+10000
Cameron Johnson	+10000
Rob Dillingham	+10000
Kris Dunn	+10000
Jordan Poole	+10000
Corey Kispert	+10000
Dalton Knecht	+10000
Zach Edey	+10000
Nikola Jovic	+10000
Buddy Hield	+10000
Onyeka Okongwu	+10000
Jordan Hawkins	+10000
Kyshawn George	+10000
Reed Sheppard	+10000
Payton Pritchard	+12500
Tony Bradley	+15000
Quinten Post	+15000
Cason Wallace	+15000
Jeremy Sochan	+15000
Neemias Queta	+15000
Anthony Black	+15000
Taylor Hendricks	+15000
Ryan Dunn	+15000
Kris Murray	+15000
Jaylen Brown	+15000
Jarace Walker	+15000
Walker Kessler	+15000
Obi Toppin	+15000
Tristan da Silva	+15000
Julian Strawther	+20000
Tari Eason	+20000
Naz Reid	+20000
Deandre Ayton	+20000

Odds via FanDuel

Also in Philly, Sixers point guard Tyrese Maxey is listed as a heavy favorite to win Most Improved Player (-240) – and rightfully so, as Maxey has made a huge leap from averaging 20 PPG and 3.5 AST last season to averaging 26 PPG and 6.6 AST this season.

Generally speaking, the awards voters tend to lean toward fringe-stars that take the next step like Maxey. The last five recipients of the award were Lauri Markkanen, Ja Morant, Julius Randle, Brandon Ingram and Pascal Siakam.

And while Maxey certainly fits the mold, I’m not so sure he should be listed as such a heavy favorite.

Rockets center Alperen Sengun has jumped from averaging 15 PPG and 4 AST last season to averaging 22 PPG and 5 AST this season. Bulls guard Coby White has gone from averaging less than 10 PPG and 3 AST off the bench last season to 19 PPG and 5 AST in a starting role this season. 

You could even make a case for Thunder forward Jalen Williams at +6000 – who’s having an excellent campaign averaging 19 PPG and 5 AST after averaging 14 PPG and 3 AST in his rookie season.

Push comes to shove, I think we’ll see Maxey win Most Improved Player. But I have to imagine that another candidate stakes a claim at some point and cuts into those odds given the highly subjective nature of the award.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson