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Featured Last Updated Jun 19 2025, 9:15 AM

NBA: Thunder vs. Pacers Pick & Prediction

Derek Mountain
Derek Mountain Sports Betting Expert
8 minute read
NBA: Thunder vs. Pacers Pick & Prediction

Despite a late push from the Pacers, the Thunder took care of business at home in game five and are just one win away from their first-ever NBA title. 

With Indiana’s season on the line, game 6 has all the ingredients for a potential barn burner. Be sure to monitor injury news before tip-off as Pacers star guard Tyrese Haliburton is a game-time decision.

Updated on 6/19/25

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OKC @ IND Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
-6 -110 -3 -110 + -2.5 -115 + -2.5 -115 + -2.5 -110 + N/A -3.5 -104 + -2.5 -120 -2.5 -122 + -6 -108  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
+6 -110 +3 -110 + +2.5 -105 + +2.5 -105 + +2.5 -110 + N/A +3.5 -118 + +2.5 -107 +2.5 -107 + +6 -112  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
o224.5 -110 o113.5 -110 + N/A o113.5 -108 + o113.5 -110 + o113.5 -120 + o113.5 -110 + o114.5 -109 o114.5 -110 + o222.5 -110  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
u224.5 -110 u113.5 -110 + N/A u113.5 -112 + u113.5 -110 + u113.5 -110 + u113.5 -110 + u114.5 -120 u114.5 -121 + u222.5 -110  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
-230 -180 + -175 + -185 + -190 + -180 + -176 + -195 -200 + -225  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
+190 +150 + +145 + +154 + +158 + +140 + +140 + +150 +150 + +185  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
-6 -110 N/A N/A -2.5 -112 + -2.5 -110 + N/A N/A -2.5 -120 -2.5 -120 + -6 -108  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
+6 -110 N/A N/A +2.5 -108 + +2.5 -120 + N/A N/A +2.5 -109 +2.5 -112 + +6 -112  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
o224.5 -110 N/A N/A o108.5 -120 + o108.5 -115 + N/A N/A o107.5 -112 o107.5 -112 + o222.5 -110  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
u224.5 -110 N/A N/A u108.5 -110 + u108.5 -115 + N/A N/A u107.5 -120 u107.5 -122 + u222.5 -110  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
-230 N/A N/A -180 + N/A N/A -160 + -180 -180 + -225  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
+190 N/A N/A +140 + N/A N/A +130 + +140 +135 + +185  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
-6 -110 -1.5 -110 + -1.5 -115 + -1.5 -110 + -1.5 -110 + N/A -2.5 +110 + -1.5 -107 -1.5 -109 + -6 -108  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
+6 -110 +1.5 -110 + +1.5 -105 + +1.5 -110 + +1.5 -120 + N/A +2.5 -140 + +1.5 -120 +1.5 -118 + +6 -112  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
o224.5 -110 o57 -110 + N/A o56.5 -120 + o57 -115 + o56.5 -125 + o56.5 -125 + o57.5 -112 o57.5 -113 + o222.5 -110  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
u224.5 -110 u57 -110 + N/A u56.5 even + u57 -115 + u56.5 -105 + u56.5 -102 + u57.5 -117 u57.5 -118 + u222.5 -110  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
-230 -155 + -160 + -155 + -160 + N/A -144 + -157 -159 + -225  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
+190 +130 + +130 + +130 + +130 + N/A +118 + +123 +123 + +185  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
-6 -110 -1.5 -115 + N/A -1.5 -105 + -1.5 -110 + N/A -1.5 -113 + -1.5 -121 -1.5 -121 + -6 -108  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
+6 -110 +1.5 -115 + N/A +1.5 -115 + +1.5 -120 + N/A +1.5 -113 + +1.5 -108 +1.5 -110 + +6 -112  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
o224.5 -110 o56.5 -115 + N/A o56.5 -115 + o56.5 -120 + o56.5 -115 + o56.5 -113 + o56.5 -120 o56.5 -121 + o222.5 -110  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
u224.5 -110 u56.5 -115 + N/A u56.5 -115 + u56.5 -110 + u56.5 -115 + u56.5 -113 + u56.5 -112 u56.5 -113 + u222.5 -110  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
-230 -155 + N/A -145 + N/A N/A -152 + -167 -165 + -225  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
+190 +125 + N/A +114 + N/A N/A +124 + +132 +128 + +185  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
-6 -110 -1.5 -115 + N/A -1.5 -112 + -1.5 -115 + N/A -1.5 -113 + -1.5 -113 -1.5 -114 + -6 -108  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
+6 -110 +1.5 -115 + N/A +1.5 -108 + +1.5 -115 + N/A +1.5 -113 + +1.5 -114 +1.5 -117 + +6 -112  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
o224.5 -110 o55.5 -115 + N/A o56.5 -105 + N/A o56.5 -105 + o55.5 -111 + o54.5 -125 o54.5 -125 + o222.5 -110  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
u224.5 -110 u55.5 -115 + N/A u56.5 -125 + N/A u56.5 -125 + u55.5 -115 + u54.5 -106 u54.5 -109 + u222.5 -110  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
-230 -160 + N/A -154 + N/A N/A -142 + -157 -155 + -225  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
+190 +130 + N/A +120 + N/A N/A +116 + +123 +120 + +185  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
-6 -110 -1.5 -115 + N/A -1.5 -108 + -1.5 even + N/A -1.5 -106 + -1.5 -110 -1.5 -112 + -6 -108  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
+6 -110 +1.5 -115 + N/A +1.5 -112 + +1.5 -130 + N/A +1.5 -120 + +1.5 -118 +1.5 -118 + +6 -112  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
o224.5 -110 o52.5 -115 + N/A o52.5 -110 + N/A N/A o52.5 -120 + o52.5 -108 o52.5 -110 + o222.5 -110  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
u224.5 -110 u52.5 -115 + N/A u52.5 -120 + N/A N/A u52.5 -106 + u52.5 -124 u52.5 -122 + u222.5 -110  
Oklahoma City Thunder 511 Thunder
-230 -160 + N/A -154 + N/A -130 + -140 + -152 -157 + -225  
Indiana Pacers 512 Pacers
+190 +130 + N/A +120 + N/A even + +114 + +120 +118 + +185  

Thursday night brings elimination basketball to Indianapolis, and while everyone debates Haliburton's ankle and Siakam's workload, there's value hiding in plain sight with TJ McConnell's point total.

The veteran guard sits at 8.6 points per game through this playoff run. Even at home, where he theoretically should perform better, McConnell averages 10.1 points. That puts him right at the threshold of a 10.5-point line.

McConnell dropped 18 points in Game 5, his highest output since early April. Context matters here. Indiana was down 18 points and desperately clawing back into the game. The normal offensive structure broke down completely, with Haliburton playing injured and leaning on guys like McConnell and Pascal Siakam to get them back in the game.

Facing elimination, look for head coach Rick Carlisle to trust his stars. That means Siakam will continue to get his touches, Haliburton (health permitting) runs the offense, and McConnell does what he's done all year: facilitate and defend. The best version of Indiana needs him pushing the pace and creating advantages for better shooters, not hunting his own offense.

Elimination games follow patterns. Rotations shorten, shot selection becomes more conservative, and star players are relied on to perform.

McConnell has played in these spots before. He knows when to be aggressive and when to facilitate. With Indiana's season on the line, he'll prioritize getting good looks for Siakam and others over creating his own offense.

Oddsmakers have bumped McConnell's line upward after Game 5's performance. That creates an opportunity for bettors who recognize the difference between sustainable production and outlier results. The line represents his ceiling, not his expected performance.

This isn't about McConnell having a poor game, as he's been arguably Indiana's most consistent producer. However, it's about him regressing back to the norm, which means he contributes through playmaking and energy rather than shot-making. That type of performance keeps him well under this inflated projected total.

PICK: TJ MCCONNELL UNDER 10.5 POINTS

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Derek Mountain

Derek Mountain

Derek Mountain works in the Boston area as an SEO Performance Associate for Better Collective. Derek is a recent graduate of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, MA where he played football for five years as well as walking on the basketball team his freshman year. Derek has experience writing and editing casino content for nearly four years. More from Derek Mountain
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