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NBA MVP Odds: Embiid Falls as Minimum Game Requirement Looms

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
3 minute read

For a brief moment, it seemed like Sixers center Joel Embiid was poised to reclaim the MVP throne as the reigning award winner went off for 41 points in a statement win over the Nuggets on January 16, and then erupted for 70 points in a win over the Spurs on January 22 – which resulted in Embiid rising to top of the MVP odds board.

However, that moment was very short-lived. Embiid has missed two of the Sixers’ last three contests, and in his return to action on Tuesday night, he scored just 14 points on 28% from the field in a nationally televised loss to the Warriors – and just like that, Embiid’s odds have quickly plummeted to +1500 at BetMGM and DraftKings.

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Mvp Winner Odds
Nikola Jokic -6600 + -7000 + -4000 + -3000 -10000  
Luka Doncic +1600 + +3000 + +2000 + +1600 +1400  
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +3000 + +3700 + +3000 + +3000 +4000  
Jalen Brunson +12500 +  
Giannis Antetokounmpo +25000  
Jayson Tatum +25000  

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Embiid was really bad against Golden State on Tuesday night as he tried to battle through another injury. However, the latest shift in the MVP odds isn’t a result of the big man’s latest outing; it’s a result of the two games he missed prior to that.

Caesars and bet365 are still listing Embiid in the +150 to +350 range. However, don’t walk into that trap.

Starting this season, players must play a minimum of 65 games in order to be considered for NBA awards voting as a part of the league’s new anti-load management protocols – which means that players who miss more than 17 games will be automatically excluded from the voting pool.

Embiid has already missed 12 of Philly’s 46 games. So with almost half of the season left to play, Embiid can only miss five more games in order to contend for the MVP award – and if you are familiar with the big man’s medical history, you already know there’s a good chance of him falling short of that minimum game requirement.

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Odds via FanDuel

Also in Philly, Sixers point guard Tyrese Maxey is listed as a heavy favorite to win Most Improved Player (-240) – and rightfully so, as Maxey has made a huge leap from averaging 20 PPG and 3.5 AST last season to averaging 26 PPG and 6.6 AST this season.

Generally speaking, the awards voters tend to lean toward fringe-stars that take the next step like Maxey. The last five recipients of the award were Lauri Markkanen, Ja Morant, Julius Randle, Brandon Ingram and Pascal Siakam.

And while Maxey certainly fits the mold, I’m not so sure he should be listed as such a heavy favorite.

Rockets center Alperen Sengun has jumped from averaging 15 PPG and 4 AST last season to averaging 22 PPG and 5 AST this season. Bulls guard Coby White has gone from averaging less than 10 PPG and 3 AST off the bench last season to 19 PPG and 5 AST in a starting role this season. 

You could even make a case for Thunder forward Jalen Williams at +6000 – who’s having an excellent campaign averaging 19 PPG and 5 AST after averaging 14 PPG and 3 AST in his rookie season.

Push comes to shove, I think we’ll see Maxey win Most Improved Player. But I have to imagine that another candidate stakes a claim at some point and cuts into those odds given the highly subjective nature of the award.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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