Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:45 AM

Warriors vs. Pelicans Predictions, Odds, Preview

May 3, 2021
by Joe Williams
NBA Expert

The Golden State Warriors (32-32) continue their road trip against the New Orleans Pelicans (29-35) at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday night for the first of a two-game set. The game is nationally televised on ESPN.

The Warriors are coming off a 113-87 win over the Houston Rockets on Saturday, covering as 8.5-point favorites. That made up for a loss in Minnesota on Thursday to open the four-game road trip. The Pelicans are looking to carry over its momentum from a 140-136 overtime win in Minnesota as 3.5-point favorites at most shops.

Warriors vs. Pelicans Betting Resources

Betting Odds - Warriors vs. Pelicans

Line Movements

Subject to Change

  • Spread: New Orleans -3
  • Money-Line: Pelicans -155, Warriors +130
  • Total: 236.5

The Pelicans are favored by three points in the front end of this back-to-back set with the Warriors. New Orleans will be shooting for its fifth consecutive cover, and they're looking to win for the third consecutive outing. The Pels scored 140 points last time out in Minneapolis, their most points since dropping 144 points on the Grizzlies in Memphis back on Feb. 16.

The total of 236.5 is rather high, but that's life in the NBA these days. In fact, it's the same total for the Portland Trail Blazers-Atlanta Hawks game on Monday at State Farm Arena. It might be a bit of a high number considering the Pelicans have cashed the Under in four of the past five, including each of their previous four decided in regulation.

The Pelicans hook up with the Warriors for the first time this season on Monday night in New Orleans. (AP)

Warriors vs. Pelicans Current Form-Last Game

Golden State rolled to a 113-87 win over the Houston Rockets on Saturday, but it was a strange game. The Rockets led 24-22 after the first quarter, and 55-49 at halftime. However, the Warriors outscored the Rockets 39-12 in the third quarter, and 64-32 in the second half to win it going away. The Warriors cashed as 8.5-point favorites while the UNDER (233) connected.

Golden State hit 46% from the field, or 39-of-84, while knocking down 18 three-pointers and 39% from behind the arc. Stephen Curry went for a team-high 30 points with six rebounds and five assists while dropping in seven triples. Andrew Wiggins was good for 20 points, while Jordan Poole and Mychal Mulder surprised with 17 points apiece off the bench.

New Orleans rolled to a 140-136 overtime win over Minnesota at Target Center on Saturday. It's no surprise that they had six players in double digits given the high point total, with Lonzo Ball leading the charge with 33 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. He also dropped in eight three-pointers. Zach Williamson also dumped in 37 points with nine rebounds and eight assists on 14-of-17 shooting.

Warriors vs. Pelicans Head-to-Head

  • Feb. 23, 2020 - Pelicans 115 at Warriors 101, New Orleans -10, Under 238.5
  • Dec. 20, 2019 - Warriors 106 vs. Pelicans 102, Golden State +2, Under 221.5
  • Nov. 17, 2019 - Pelicans 108 vs. Warriors 100, New Orleans -3, Under 225.5
  • Oct. 28, 2019 - Warriors 134 at Pelicans 123, Golden State +2.5, Over 236

These teams have been evenly matched over the past couple of seasons, and it will be interesting over the next two games to see how things go in the back-to-back set.

There haven't been any distinct trends in this series, as far as the spread is concerned. But the UNDER is 4-1 in the past five meetings, with the UNDER going 4-1 in the past five meetings at Smoothie King Center, too.

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Golden State Warriors Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 32-32 SU, 30-34 ATS, 26-38 OU
  • Road: 13-21 SU, 13-21 ATS, 13-21 OU

The Warriors are looking to carry over the momentum from their second half run in Houston. They were the favorites in that game against the lowly Rockets, but they're underdogs here. Golden State is just 1-6 ATS in the past seven road games against teams with a winning home record, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven as a road underdog, too. They're also 0-4 ATS in the past four following a straight-up win.

As far as the totals, it's all UNDER all the time for Golden State lately. The UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven games overall, while going 5-2 in the past seven as an underdog, too. The UNDER is also 15-6 in the past 21 games on the road, while going 9-4 in the past 13 as a road underdog. And, for what it's worth, the Warriors have hit the UNDER in each of their past six games on a Monday.

New Orleans Pelicans Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 29-35 SU, 30-34 ATS, 40-24 OU
  • Home: 17-16 SU, 15-18 ATS, 23-10 OU

The Pelicans have covered each of their past four games, and they have cashed in four of the past five when working on a day of rest. And they haven't had a case of the Mondays, hitting in 24 of the past 33 games played on Monday. However, they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five as a home favorite, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight at home against teams with a losing road mark.

For totals, the OVER is 23-9 in the past 32 games at home for the Pelicans, while going 14-5 in the past 19 as a home favorite. The OVER is an impressive 24-8 in the past 32 overall as a favorite, too. However, the UNDER is 4-1 in the past five meetings with the Warriors, and 4-1 in the past five meetings in New Orleans, so that's gotta count for something.

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors

  • SF Andrew Wiggins: Knee - Questionable
  • SF Kelly Oubre, Jr.: Wrist - Out
  • SG Damion Lee: Quarantine - Out
  • C James Wiseman: Knee - Out

New Orleans Pelicans

  • C Steven Adams: Toe - Questionable
  • SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Ankle - Out
  • SG Josh Hart: Thumb - Out

Warriors vs. Pelicans Prediction

The Pelicans have been on quite the roll, but the Warriors have picked up three wins in the past five overall, while going for 114 or more points in five of the past six. They can score with the best of them, and they have held the opposition under 100 points in three of the past seven.

New Orleans has gone 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in back-to-back situations against the same opponent, and that doesn't bode well for Tuesday's game, either. Look for the Warriors to fire the opening salvo and get it done as the UNDER hits.

Score Prediction: Warriors 118, Pelicans 114
Best Bet: UNDER 236.5

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