Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

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The NBA Play-In Tournament resumes on Friday night with the final playoff spot in the East on the line between the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from Miami-Dade Arena in South Florida at 7:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

CHICAGO BULLS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING PREDICTION

The Bulls’ playoff chances appeared to be hanging in the balance early in the first round of the Play-In Tournament against Toronto, as they entered the second half of Wednesday’s contest trailing the Raptors by a score of 58-47.

However, thanks to a dismal performance from the foul line by Toronto (18-36 FT), and a monster 30-point second half performance by Zach LaVine, the Bulls managed to escape with a narrow 109-105 road victory in a matchup they shot just 7-of-26 from three-point territory in.

So now, Chicago ventures onto Miami to face the Heat. A team that, quite frankly, got embarrassed in the First Round of the Play-In Tournament by posting a double-digit home loss to the Hawks, and they never led in that contest after the 10:19 mark of the opening quarter.

The Bulls and Heat both have very talented rosters, but they also share similar flaws. So, it’s no surprise that they’re set to meet in the final round of the Play-In Tournament.

Plain and simple, both of these squads are crippled by struggles at the offensive end of the floor, highlighted by Miami finishing the year ranked 25th in offensive rating (113.1 ORtg), and Chicago finishing 24th (113.5 ORtg); which primarily stems from their inability to shoot the longball.

Trouble from long range surely doesn’t stop Miami from jacking up threes at an alarming rate, though. The Heat rank 10th in the league in three-point attempts per game (35 3PA), but they knock them down at the fourth-worst clip (34% 3P%), in turn, putting a tremendous amount of pressure on their defense on a consistent basis.

While on the other hand, the Bulls don’t shoot the longball well either, ranked just 16th in the league in three-point field goal percentage (36% 3P%); however, they seem to acknowledge that, and instead, try to force teams to play into their strengths, highlighted by Chicago also ranking dead-last in three-point attempts per game (29 3PA).

In today’s NBA, teams must be able to shoot from long range efficiently in order to contend at the highest level, and Miami is a team that’s hovered near the top of the Eastern Conference totem pole for quite some time now by playing lights out defense; so, there’s no shame in tweaking the formula while they try to keep up with some of these offensive powerhouses.

Unfortunately, though, it’s becoming very clear that the reason previous iterations of this Heat’ team were so successful was their dominance at the defensive end of the floor. Sure, on any given night, if the opposing team managed to turn the game into a three-point shootout, Miami was toast; but on the other side of that same coin, if the Heat turned the game into a dog fight, very few teams were capable of matching their level of physicality.

However, this is a very different Heat’ team than the one that we’ve seen in recent years. They shoot threes at a highly inefficient rate. Their defense is good, but by no means lockdown, ranked just 9th in defensive rating (113.3 DRtg); and quite frankly, the Bulls have been better than them at their strong suit, as Chicago ranks 5th in defensive rating (112.2 DRtg). The Bulls posted a perfect 3-0 record against Miami during the regular season. Take the points with Chicago in this one.

Score Prediction: Bulls 106, Heat 104
Best Bet: Bulls +5.5 (-110)

Take CHI!

BET NOW!

CHICAGO BULLS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING ODDS

CHICAGO BULLS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Friday, April 14, 2023
Venue: Miami-Dade Arena
Location: Miami, Florida
TV-Time: TNT, 7:00 p.m. ET
Matchup
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NBA Finals Betting Odds

CHICAGO BULLS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING STATS

Chicago Bulls
SU: 41-42
ATS: 41-40-1
O/U: 37-45
PPG: 113.1
OPPG: 111.8

Miami Heat
SU: 44-39
ATS: 32-50
O/U: 41-41
PPG: 109.5
OPPG: 109.8

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 03/17/2026

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CHICAGO BULLS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING TRENDS

• The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
• The total has gone OVER in eight of Chicago's last 11 games.
• The Bulls are 5-2 SU in their last seven games.
• The Heat are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
• The total has gone OVER in five of Miami's last six games.
• The Heat are 4-2 SU in their last six games.
• The total has gone OVER in eight of Miami's last 12 matchups against Chicago.
• The total has gone OVER in seven of Miami's last eight home games.
• The Bulls are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games against Miami.
• The Bulls are 9-2 SU in their last 11 road games.
• The Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games against Miami.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson