Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

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The opening round of the NBA Playoffs resumes on Tuesday night with a compelling Game 5 in the Western Conference between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. Coverage begins from Ball Arena in Denver at 9:00 p.m. ET on NBA TV.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES vs. DENVER NUGGETS BETTING PREDICTION

The Nuggets appeared to have their sights set on a first-round sweep in the early goings of their Game 4 matchup against Minnesota, as Denver went to the halftime break of their most recent affair leading the T-Wolves by a score of 52-48, in addition to a comfortable 3-0 lead in the series; however, the hometown crowd in Minneapolis certainly made their presence felt down the stretch, as the T-Wolves bounced back in the second half and escaped with a win in overtime in order to force a Game 5 in Denver on Tuesday night.

The fact that the Nuggets split their first two road playoff matchups comes as no surprise, though. The Nuggets posted the best record in the entire Western Conference at 53-29, however, they certainly didn’t pave their way to the one seed by playing an exquisite brand of basketball away from their home arena, highlighted by Denver posting a lackluster record of 19-22 on the road during the regular season.

On the other side of that same coin, though, the Nuggets have absolutely dominated their homefloor, boasting a record of 34-7 at Ball Arena on the year, and quite frankly, they’ve been a completely different team at home vs. away, highlighted by Denver ranking Top 6 in the league in both offensive and defensive rating at home (120 ORtg, 110 DRtg), as opposed to ranking just 14th in offense and 21st in defense on the road (114 ORtg, 117 DRtg).

Given the numbers presented, the fact that Denver managed to win a road game in this series may seem rather surprising; however, push comes to shove, this Timberwolves’ team simply isn’t very good regardless of location, and even on their homefloor, they still play worse than the Nuggets do on the road, ranked just 26th in offensive rating and 14th in defensive rating at home on the season (113 ORtg, 112 DRtg).

So, let’s take a trip back to the first two matchups of this series in Denver. In Game 1, the Nuggets pretty much dominated from start to finish, as they casually scored 109 points on 46% FG and 41% 3P, while also holding Minnesota to just 80 points on 37% FG and 31% 3FG in a blowout victory to open the series.

In Game 2, however, the T-Wolves managed to keep things much closer by shooting 51% FG and 45% 3P, which was pretty much the best they could do on the road offensively, but it still wasn’t enough to fend off a Nuggets’ squad consistently one-upping their every move with clips of 55% FG and 46% 3P in the contest, resulting in a comfortable 122-113 win for Denver.

So, as we return to Denver for Game 5, the spread for Tuesday’s contest is stationed at Nuggets -9, the exact winning margin of Denver’s victory in Game 2, and truth be told, it’s tough to imagine the T-Wolves playing as well as they did in Game 2 after showing a significant downtick in their numbers in Games 3 and 4 at home, despite managing to win one of those contests. 

With Minnesota now on the brink of elimination in Game 5, it’s probably safe to assume that the T-Wolves won’t get pummeled by 30 points like they did back in Game 1, but rest assured, they probably won’t shoot 45% from three-point territory like they did in Game 2 either. Expect a lesser performance from Minnesota on the road this time around. Lay the points with Denver in this one.

Score Prediction: Nuggets 119, Timberwolves 107
Best Bet: Nuggets -9.5 (-110)

Take DEN!

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MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES vs. DENVER NUGGETS BETTING ODDS

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES vs. DENVER NUGGETS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Tuesday, April 25, 2023
Venue: Ball Arena
Location: Denver, Colorado
TV-Time: NBA TV, 9:00 p.m. ET
Matchup
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NBA Finals Betting Odds

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES vs. DENVER NUGGETS BETTING STATS

Minnesota Timberwolves
SU: 44-44
ATS: 41-45
O/U: 41-45
PPG: 115.8
OPPG: 115.9

Denver Nuggets
SU: 56-30
ATS: 48-38
O/U: 40-46
PPG: 115.8
OPPG: 112.5

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 09/04/2025

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MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES vs. DENVER NUGGETS BETTING TRENDS

• The T-Wolves are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 14 games.
• The T-Wolves are 2-4 SU in their last six games.
• The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Denver's last 17 games.
• The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in their last five games.
• The total has gone OVER in eight of Denver's last 11 matchups against Minnesota.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of Denver's last seven home games.
• The T-Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups against Denver.
• The T-Wolves are 1-4 SU in their last five matchups against Denver.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of Minnesota's last eight road games.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson