Game 5 – Heat vs. Nuggets Picks, Predictions, Odds

NBA Playoffs Picks
Series Odds | Expert Picks
Free Picks | Prop Picks

The NBA Finals resume on Monday night with what could potentially be the fifth and final matchup of this year’s championship series between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets. Coverage begins from Ball Arena in Denver at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

The Nuggets are 9-1 ATS in their last ten matchups against Miami. (Getty)


After becoming the first team in NBA Finals history to surrender a pair of 30-point triple-doubles in the same contest in Game 3, the Heat did a much better job of defending Denver’s superstar duo in the most recent meeting between these teams, as Miami managed to hold Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray to just 38 combined points on 13-of-36 shooting in Game 4 on Friday night.

However, the problem was, they didn’t do a good job of defending anybody else on the floor, as the other six Nuggets’ players that received minutes in Friday’s contest combined for 70 points on 60% from the field on the way to a 108-95 victory, with Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown doing most of the heavy lifting by accounting for 48 points on 19-of-26 shooting in the win.

Yet again, the Heat’s defense buzzed in with the wrong answer in Game 4, as the Nuggets breezed through their most recent matchup shooting 49% from the floor and 50% from three-point range, despite receiving relatively pedestrian performances from their superstar duo. 

But truth be told, even if the Heat managed to crack the code on defense in Game 4, there’s still a good chance that they would’ve come up short in a contest that they shot just 45% from the field and 32% from long-range as a team.

Jimmy Butler has been surprisingly quiet for Miami in this series, however, he certainly wasn’t the issue in their latest affair, as Butler scored a modest 25 points on 53% shooting to go along with seven rebounds and seven assists in Game 4.

Kevin Love and Duncan Robinson played pretty well too, tallying 12 points apiece on a combined 9-of-13 shooting, but aside from occasional spurts by those three guys, the Heat’s offense was a total mess in Game 4, highlighted by the rest of Miami’s lineup combining for just 46 points on 48 shot attempts in Friday’s loss.

Quite frankly, I’ve never witnessed a team toggle with the on / off switch quite like the Heat have throughout the year, which stems from the high level of variance in their three-point shooting numbers, but Miami has kicked it into turbo gear from downtown so often this postseason that it’s become somewhat of a predictable trend.

The Heat have shot 33% or worse from three-point range in 9-of-17 games since their series opener against New York, however, they shot so well from long range in the other eight contests that they still own the second-best three-point percentage on the board during that timeframe at 37%.

If the Heat shoot like they did in Games 3 and 4, there’s a very good chance that this series ends on Monday night. But Miami has proven time after time that a bunch of misses simply means that the shots are destined to start falling eventually. The Heat made 49% of their three-point attempts in a Game 2 win over Denver, but in the other three contests, they knocked down just 32-of-99 attempts from beyond the arc. 

Will the Heat be able to string together three straight wins down the stretch? I highly doubt it. But Miami’s shooters are way overdue for a bounce-back performance after getting embarrassed in back-to-back home losses. The Heat have already won seven games in which they were tagged as an underdog of 7.5+ points this postseason, which includes a road win in Game 2 of this series. Back Miami to win Game 5.

Score Prediction: Heat 109, Nuggets 103
Best Bet: Heat ML (+320)

MIA @ DEN Odds


Date: Monday, June 11, 2023
Venue: Ball Arena
Location: Denver, Colorado
TV-Time: ABC, 8:30 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

Online Sportsbooks · Promo Codes · Fanatics
Updated on 12/01/2023
Bonus Code No Code Needed Claim Now


Miami Heat
SU: 58-48
ATS: 46-58
O/U: 53-51
PPG: 109.5
OPPG: 109.8

Denver Nuggets
SU: 68-33
ATS: 57-44
O/U: 47-54
PPG: 115.8
OPPG: 112.5

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

The Heat are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games. (Getty)


  • The Heat are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of Miami's last eight games.
  • The Heat are 2-6 SU in their last eight games.
  • The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Denver's last five games.
  • The Nuggets are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
  • The Nuggets are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games.
  • The Heat are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against Denver.
  • The Heat are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against Denver.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Miami's last 15 road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of Denver's last nine games against Miami.