Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 29, 2021
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert

Nationally televised NBA coverage will resume on Monday night with a heavyweight non-conference bout between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat. Coverage begins at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV.

Score Prediction

Heat 114, Nuggets 105

Best Bets

Miami -6 (-110) at WynnBet

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Predictions

After finishing third in the West with a record of 47-25 last year, Denver kicked things off on a similarly encouraging note to start the new season, as the Nuggets opened with wins in nine of their first 13 games – which included impressive upset victories over the Suns (-6), Jazz (-7), Grizzlies (-1), and Heat (- 2).

The Nuggets experienced a minor drawback during their double-digit loss to Philadelphia on November 18th though, as reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic, suffered an unfortunate wrist injury – which sidelined the the superstar for the next ten days or so, and in turn, led to Denver’s current six-game losing streak. On the other hand, Miami also jumped out to an excellent start to the new season, as the Heat opened with wins in seven of their first nine games – which included solid victories over the Bucks, Nets, Mavericks, and Jazz.

Since starting 7-2 though, Miami has been rather pedestrian, highlighted by the Heat entering Monday’s contest riding a lackluster 6-5 run – which includes disheartening losses to the Wizards, Wolves, and Nuggets.

I’ll take the Heat at home here, as despite Miami’s latest struggles, they still strike me as the far more trustworthy team ahead of Monday’s matchup – especially with Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Jokic all currently nursing injuries.

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

Odds Provided by WynnBet - Subject to Change

  • Heat -230
  • Nuggets +195
  • Heat -6 (-110)
  • Nuggets +6 (-110)
  • Over 204 (-110)
  • Under 204 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Northwest vs. Southeast
  • Date: Monday, November 29, 2021
  • Venue: FTX Arena
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • TV-Time: NBATV - 7:30 p.m. ET

Denver Nuggets Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-10
  • ATS: 7-12
  • O/U: 8-11

Following Murray’s devastating knee injury last year, any expectations regarding the Nuggets quickly vanished, as despite finishing third in the conference, Denver (-120) ventured into the first round of the playoffs as narrow favorites over the sixth-seeded Blazers (+100).

The Nuggets still managed to prevail through that series without Murray, but clearly, we can’t expect that same level of success when Jokic is also absent, considering Denver enters Monday’s contest following six straight losses – with five of those defeats coming by a double-digit margin.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 13-7
  • ATS: 13-7
  • O/U: 12-8

Following their quick exit from last year’s playoffs, the Heat made some dramatic offseason changes to better suit needs at the offensive end, as Miami shipped Goran Dragic and Precious Achiuwa to Toronto in exchange for All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry through a blockbuster deal.

The Heat already stood as legitimate eastern contenders prior to the acquisition, considering Miami paved a brilliant path to the NBA Finals through the Orlando bubble – and then got eliminated in the first round of last year’s playoffs by Milwaukee, which doesn’t bode horribly in hindsight.

Miami now stands as a far more imposing threat with the additions of Lowry and PJ Tucker though, and seemingly match up well against frontcourt-focused squads like the Nuggets – even at full strength.

Miami has covered the spread in six of its last seven home games. (AP)

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

The Nuggets swept a two-game regular-season set against Miami last year, with the first of those victories staying under the total set for Monday’s affair (109-82) – and the second soaring over that same clip (123-106).

The most recent matchup between these teams took place just a few weeks ago though, which resulted in another commanding victory for the Nuggets (113-96) – but that matchup took place in Denver before Jokic’s latest injury.

Key Players to Watch

  • DEN: Will Barton - SF (16.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.3 apg)
  • DEN: Monte Morris - PG (11.4 ppg, 4.2 apg)
  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (23.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.3 apg)
  • MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (18.4 ppg, 10 rpg)

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

After bouncing back with a tough road victory in Chicago on Saturday night, the Heat will travel back to Miami for Monday’s contest as narrow home favorites over the visiting Nuggets – marking the fifth straight game Denver has been underdogs in.

I’ll take the Heat at home here, as Denver’s recent injury issues makes them far too difficult to trust in virtually any matchup – but especially, in road matchups against upper-tier Eastern Conference squads like Miami.

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

  • Miami has covered the spread in six of its last seven home games.
  • Denver has failed to cover the spread in six straight games.
  • Denver has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight road games.