Florida Governor Race & Florida Senate Race 2026 Odds | Moody vs Nixon Polls & Prediction Markets Analysis
With Election Day closing in, both the Florida Governor Race and the Florida Senate Race have narrowed in public polling, even as Polymarket and Kalshi tell different stories about just how close each contest really is.
Byron Donalds, David Jolly, Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon each have active markets covering the Florida Governor Election and the Senate race on both exchanges, and Kalshi also runs a four-way Governor-Senate combo contract tying the two races together.
Here's where the action sits on both platforms heading into polls closing on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (20¢) | $500.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (8¢) | $1250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91.4¢) | $109.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (9.4¢) | $1063.83 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
A full breakdown of the current Florida Governor Election and Florida Senate Race pricing on both exchanges follows below, but if you'd rather jump straight to the offers, grab the latest Polymarket promo code or Kalshi promo code.
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Updated on 10/19/26
Florida Governor Election Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket prices every contract between 1¢ and 99¢, which maps directly onto implied probability; a "Yes" share pays out $1.00 if the outcome hits and nothing if it doesn't.
Both the Florida Governor Election and the Florida Senate Race settle the night each contest is called, measured against Florida's certified statewide results from the November 3 election.
One methodology note: Polymarket only posts a Yes price for each individual candidate on these boards, so the No prices below are backed into by mirroring each candidate against their head-to-head rival's own Yes quote, since one side winning necessarily means the other loses in a two-way race.
Florida Governor Race
Byron Donalds (YES 82¢ / NO 21¢)
Donalds remains a heavy favorite here, trading near 4-to-1, and the real story is how far that price sits from the actual Jolly vs Donalds Polls numbers. Polymarket has already bumped its internal rating on the race from a toss-up to "Likely R."
A Stetson University poll from October 13 showed Donalds ahead 52-41, while a Change Research survey taken around the same window had the race tied at 47-47. The market is clearly weighting the larger cluster of double-digit Donalds leads over that one outlier tie.
David Jolly (YES 21¢ / NO 82¢)
Jolly's own price barely moved and he remains a clear underdog, even though a handful of Jolly vs Donalds Polls, including Change Research and the Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls survey, show the race essentially tied.
His fundraising gap, roughly $14.6 million against Donalds' $120.9 million in combined committee money, appears to be weighing on the market's read more heavily than the tighter public polling does.
Florida Senate Race
Ashley Moody (YES 93¢ / NO 8¢)
Moody remains priced close to a lock, and the Moody vs Nixon Polls back that up more convincingly than the polling behind the Governor's race backs up Donalds.
A Quantus Insights survey had her up 50.1-42.7, and an NBC6/Telemundo/Mason-Dixon poll showed a 50-40 edge, though a tighter Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls survey found her lead down to just 47-45.
Angie Nixon (YES 8¢ / NO 93¢)
Nixon's primary upset over Alexander Vindman and her appeal with younger voters have kept her name in the headlines, but neither has shifted the market much.
Even the closest Moody vs Nixon Polls, like that 47-45 Florida Politics number, still leave her priced in the single digits on Polymarket.
Updated on 10/19/26
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi runs both races as regulated event contracts with tradable Yes and No on every line, so its board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts settle once Florida's Secretary of State certifies the winner of the November 3 general election.
Florida Governor Race
Byron Donalds (YES 80¢ / NO 21¢)
Kalshi is tracking right alongside Polymarket here, with Donalds comfortably favored as more Jolly vs Donalds Polls, from Stetson to the James Madison Institute to Mason-Dixon, keep stacking in his direction.
David Jolly (YES 20¢ / NO 81¢)
Jolly's price here lines up with Decision Desk HQ's recent move of the race from "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican," even with a few tied Jolly vs Donalds Polls still floating around.
Florida Senate Race
Kalshi quotes Yes and No separately for both sides of the Florida Senate Race, and the two numbers land just a hair apart rather than mirroring each other exactly: Moody's No sits at 8.9¢ while Nixon's Yes sits at 9.4¢, two prices describing the same outcome but trading on separate order books instead of one shared number.
Ashley Moody (YES 91.4¢ / NO 8.9¢)
Moody's number here tracks closer to the heavier side of the Moody vs Nixon Polls, including that 50-40 Mason-Dixon result, than to the tighter 47-45 outlier, though Kalshi is actually pricing her a shade lower than Polymarket's 93¢.
Angie Nixon (YES 9.4¢ / NO 91.4¢)
Nixon ticked up slightly on Kalshi even as Moody held near the top of her range, and her No price lands just under Moody's Yes for the reason above: a small liquidity gap between order books rather than any disagreement about who wins.
You can sign up at Kalshi with the promo code
Updated on 10/19/26
Florida Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Kalshi also lets traders price how the two races land together, wrapping all four possible Governor-Senate outcomes into one contract. Polymarket doesn't currently list a matching combo market for this pairing, so the table below is Kalshi's board alone.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win (GOP sweep) | YES 82¢ | NO 19¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Ashley Moody win (split ticket) | YES 14¢ | NO 87¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Angie Nixon win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Angie Nixon win (Dem sweep) | YES 5¢ | NO 97¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race
The two boards are close but no longer identical on either race. Donalds sits at YES 82¢ on Polymarket against YES 80¢ on Kalshi, while Jolly is priced at YES 21¢ on Polymarket and YES 20¢ on Kalshi, a one-cent gap on each side rather than the dead heat the boards were showing before.
The more interesting divergence is in how each platform handles the Florida Senate Race's missing side, and in how confident each board is in Moody overall. Polymarket only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so Moody's derived No lands at exactly 8¢, matching Nixon's own quoted 8¢. Kalshi quotes both sides directly and leans a touch lighter on Moody this time, pricing her at YES 91.4¢ against a direct NO 8.9¢, while Nixon's own Kalshi Yes sits at YES 9.4¢, a shade above her 8¢ price on Polymarket. Neither gap reflects disagreement about who wins; it's the difference between a derived price and two independently quoted order books, plus slightly less conviction in Moody on Kalshi specifically right now.
Where the two platforms genuinely diverge in structure, not price, is the combo bets. Kalshi quotes all four Governor-Senate outcomes, down to the long-shot 2¢ and 5¢ split tickets, while Polymarket still doesn't list a combo market for this pairing at all.
Florida Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The clearest signal on either board is how consistently both exchanges keep siding with the larger batch of double-digit Jolly vs Donalds Polls over the handful of tied or near-tied outliers.
A Stetson University poll had Donalds up 52-41 and a James Madison Institute survey had him up 10 points, while only Change Research and one St. Pete Polls survey have shown the race within the margin of error, and the market is pricing Donalds as though the larger group is right.
The Florida Senate Race remains the more active board of the two: Nixon's Polymarket price slipped from 10¢ to 8¢ even as her Kalshi number ticked up to 9.4¢, while Moody held essentially flat across both exchanges, extending a lead that most Moody vs Nixon Polls, from Quantus Insights' 50-42.7 to Mason-Dixon's 50-40, already supported. Both exchanges still price her well above 90% even though the lone Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls survey found the race as close as 47-45.
The combo board tells a similar story in miniature: the GOP sweep pairing Donalds with Moody gained a point on Kalshi to 82¢, while both split-ticket outcomes stayed buried in the single digits.
Early voting begins statewide by October 24, and any real shift in turnout data between now and Election Day, paired with whatever the next round of Jolly vs Donalds Polls and Moody vs Nixon Polls show, remains the most likely trigger to reprice either board before November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (20¢) | $500.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (8¢) | $1250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91.4¢) | $109.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (9.4¢) | $1063.83 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to get in on the action? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Updated on 10/19/26
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Updated on 10/19/26
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This single ballot is producing two very different kinds of markets: a Florida Governor Race that both exchanges still treat as a comfortable Donalds lead despite a genuinely mixed polling picture, and a Florida Senate Race where Moody's lead is both wider and more consistently backed by the polling behind it.
Watch the combo bets for the cleanest single read on trader sentiment. A clean GOP sweep is now the most likely combined outcome on Kalshi at 82¢, comfortably ahead of any split-ticket or Democratic-sweep scenario.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Florida Governor Election odds?
Byron Donalds is trading at 82¢ on Polymarket and 80¢ on Kalshi, putting him around an 81% favorite, while David Jolly sits at 21¢ on Polymarket and 20¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate Race?
Ashley Moody is the heavy favorite, trading at 93¢ on Polymarket and 91.4¢ on Kalshi, with Angie Nixon priced between 8¢ and 9.4¢ depending on the exchange.
What do the latest Jolly vs Donalds Polls show?
Most October surveys, including Stetson University's 52-41 result and the James Madison Institute's 10-point margin, have Donalds comfortably ahead, though a Change Research poll and a St. Pete Polls survey have each shown the race tied or within two points.
How do Moody vs Nixon Polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
Most Moody vs Nixon Polls, including Quantus Insights' 50.1-42.7 and Mason-Dixon's 50-40, show a wide Moody lead that matches her price above 90¢ on both exchanges, though a Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls survey found the race as close as 47-45.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi disagree slightly on the Florida Governor Election?
The two boards sit within a couple of cents of each other on both candidates, so the disagreement is minor. The real structural difference shows up on the combo board, where Kalshi lists all four Governor-Senate outcomes and Polymarket still doesn't offer a matching combo market at all.
Could Jolly vs Donalds Polls tighten further before November 3?
It's possible. The race has swung from double-digit Donalds leads to an outright tie depending on the pollster, and Jolly's fundraising disadvantage makes it harder for him to close that gap in the campaign's final stretch.
Are Moody vs Nixon Polls more predictive than the prediction markets?
The two have mostly agreed this cycle, with the bulk of Moody vs Nixon Polls showing a wide lead that matches her price near 90¢ on both exchanges, though the one close poll hasn't meaningfully moved either board.
What's the difference between the Florida Senate Race winner market and the combo bets?
The winner markets price Moody against Nixon head to head, while the combo bets tie that outcome to the Governor's race, letting traders bet on a full party sweep or a split ticket across both seats in a single contract.
How do I trade the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
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