Who Will Be the Next LA Mayor? Breaking Down the 2026 Los Angeles Mayor Race and Odds
Updated on 10/8/26
Los Angeles is in the middle of its most competitive mayoral race in two decades. Incumbent Karen Bass, who was expected to cruise to re-election not long ago, is now locked in a tight November runoff after a wildfire scandal reshaped the contest. Here’s the background, the candidates, and where the odds currently stand.
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How We Got Here: The Context Behind the Race
Karen Bass won the Los Angeles mayoralty in 2022, beating developer Rick Caruso after more than a decade representing the city in the U.S. House of Representatives. Her first term was dominated by the city’s homelessness crisis, but everything changed in January 2025, when the Palisades Fire tore through Pacific Palisades and Malibu, killing dozens of people and destroying thousands of homes. Bass faced immediate criticism for having traveled to Africa for a diplomatic trip as forecasters warned of dangerous fire conditions in LA.
That criticism resurfaced in a bigger way just as the 2026 campaign got underway. In early February 2026, the Los Angeles Times reported that Bass had personally directed that the city’s official after-action report on the fire be “watered down” to downplay failures by the Los Angeles Fire Department — including delayed truck pre-positioning and empty reservoirs and hydrants — and that she denied involvement even after reportedly instructing the then-interim fire chief to soften the findings. The report cited a “Bass confidant” who said the mayor didn’t tell the truth when she denied involvement in changing the report. Bass’s office pushed back hard, calling the story inaccurate. The controversy immediately became a central issue in the mayor’s race, with rivals seizing on it to argue Bass couldn’t be trusted to manage a second term.
That single story scrambled what had looked like an easy re-election bid into a genuine fight.
Who Ran for LA Mayor?
A remarkable 14 candidates qualified for the June 2026 primary ballot: the largest, most competitive field since Antonio Villaraigosa unseated incumbent Jim Hahn in 2005. The notable names included:
- Karen Bass – the incumbent, backed by Governor Gavin Newsom and much of the Democratic establishment, but weighed down by the fire controversy and ongoing frustration over homelessness.
- Nithya Raman – a Los Angeles City Councilmember and former Bass ally who entered the race at the last minute in February 2026, running on affordability, ending “pay-to-play” politics, and bringing production jobs back to Hollywood.
- Spencer Pratt – the reality-TV personality from “The Hills,” whose home was destroyed in the Palisades Fire and who ran an insurgent, outsider campaign that outperformed early expectations.
- Rick Caruso – the billionaire developer who lost to Bass in 2022; he publicly flirted with a comeback bid after the fire-report story broke but ultimately announced he would not run.
- Other contenders included Austin Beutner (former LAUSD superintendent, who dropped out in early February), Gina Viola, Rae Huang, Asaad Alnajjar, and several lower-profile candidates.
The Primary Result
The June 2, 2026 primary didn’t produce a majority winner, triggering a runoff under LA’s election rules. With the vast majority of ballots counted, the order stood as: Bass had the most votes with 275,992 (34.3%), Raman took second with 229,576 (28.6%), and Spencer Pratt finished third with roughly 25.8% of the vote. That means Karen Bass and Nithya Raman advanced to the November 3, 2026 runoff, while Pratt was eliminated.
Los Angeles Mayor Odds: Where Things Stand Now
Prediction markets have shifted over the course of the year as the race tightened:
- Early-year market pricing (before the primary) had Bass as a clear favorite in some books, around 58%, with Raman considered a long shot given her thin campaign record.
- By the time of the primary, however, polling and prediction markets showed an unusually close three-way race, with Bass, Raman, and Pratt separated by just a few points in some surveys, a far cry from the comfortable re-election once assumed.
- Heading into the November runoff, with Pratt and other third-place-or-lower candidates eliminated, markets have consistently favored Bass to win the head-to-head matchup against Raman, reflecting incumbency advantages, name recognition, and institutional backing, though not by the lopsided margin analysts expected a year ago.
Odds on head-to-head runoff contests tend to shift quickly with new polling, debate performances, and any further fallout from the fire-report controversy, so it’s worth checking current prediction markets (such as Kalshi or Polymarket's LA mayoral race listings) close to Election Day for the latest numbers rather than relying on a snapshot.
Who Will Win the LA Mayoral Race?
As of now, Nithya Raman is the favorite to win the LA Mayoral Race with a 58% chance. However, Karen Bass has some advantages in this race.
- The advantages of incumbency and citywide name recognition
- An endorsement from Governor Gavin Newsom
- Stronger institutional and Democratic-establishment support than Raman
Nithya Raman, meanwhile, has emerged as a serious threat by:
- Consolidating anti-Bass sentiment stemming from the Palisades Fire controversy
- Running on an affordability and “clean government” message
- Benefiting from strong fundraising during the primary
Who Will be the Next LA Mayor?
Barring a late-breaking development, the next mayor of Los Angeles will be either Karen Bass, seeking a second term, or Nithya Raman, attempting to unseat her former ally. The November 3, 2026 runoff will decide it. Key factors to watch in the final weeks:
- Turnout dynamics in a runoff-only (non-presidential) election cycle
- Whether more fallout emerges from the fire after-action report story
- Which candidate better capitalizes on homelessness and affordability as top voter concerns
- Debate performances and late endorsements
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