Michigan Senate Odds: Abdul El-Sayed Faces Off Against Mike Rogers in Second Debate

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

10 minute read

Updated on 10/21/26

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With the November 3 election two weeks away, polls show Abdul El-Sayed with a lead over Mike Rogers in one of the country’s most closely watched races. Below are the latest Michigan Senate race odds.

Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers Face-Off Tonight

Tonight, Oct. 21, El-Sayed and Rogers meet for their second and final scheduled debate, moderated by Detroit’s WXYZ Channel 7 less than two weeks before Election Day. The matchup comes after a bumpy road to the debate stage. Rogers skipped a September FOX 2 debate in Detroit, citing the moderator’s alleged favoritism toward El-Sayed, who then took questions beside an empty podium. El-Sayed has since nicknamed Rogers “Mike Dodgers” for avoiding debates.

The two finally shared a stage on Oct. 8 in Grand Rapids, where the exchange turned combative, with frequent interruptions and personal attacks over health care, tariffs, immigration, Israel, data centers and the war with Iran. Rogers argued that El-Sayed’s policies, including Medicare for All, are too costly and extreme for Michigan, while El-Sayed worked to tie Rogers to President Trump, corporate interests and foreign conflicts. With polls showing a race within a few points, tonight is likely the last major chance for either candidate to reach undecided voters before ballots are counted.

Prediction markets currently have Abdul El-Sayed favored, 69% to Mike Rogers 32%. Use our Kalshi promo code to sign up and start trading on the Michigan senate race. This race will end up deciding which party wins the senate.

How The Race Took Shape

Michigan’s seat is open because Democratic Sen. Gary Peters decided to retire. That made it one of the most important contests of the 2026 cycle. It is considered Republicans’ best chance to flip a Democratic seat, and Democrats need it to hold any hope of retaking the Senate. Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in Michigan in more than 30 years, though they’re running in a national environment where Trump’s approval has been sagging.

Rogers, a former congressman, had a clear path on the Republican side. Trump cleared the GOP field, while Democrats fought a messy, expensive primary among three prominent candidates: El-Sayed, Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow.

El-Sayed is a former Detroit health director who ran for governor in 2018 and is endorsed by Bernie Sanders. He ran as the outsider, campaigning on Medicare for All. He narrowly defeated establishment favorite Haley Stevens in the August 4 primary. The result set off a debate about electability. Stevens had argued she was the stronger general election candidate, and some Democrats worried a progressive nominee would be easier for Rogers to beat.

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What The Polls Say

Polling has been tight throughout, and El-Sayed has moved from trailing in some summer surveys to leading in nearly all of the recent ones. Here are the most recent, with field dates where they were published. For several of the October polls, only the publication date was available.

October

• InsiderAdvantage (Oct. 9–10, 1,200 likely voters): El-Sayed 48%, Rogers 46%
• Public First Action/Guidant (R) (reported Oct. 7): El-Sayed 48%, Rogers 43%
• Quantus Insights (reported Oct. 7, likely voters, ±3.9): El-Sayed 48%, Rogers 47%
• YouGov (reported Oct. 6, likely voters, ±2.5): El-Sayed 49%, Rogers 48%
• CBS Detroit/Mitchell Research (reported Oct. 5, likely voters, ±3.8): El-Sayed 46%, Rogers 41%

September

• Marist (Sept. 24–27, 1,235 registered voters, ±3.9): El-Sayed 51%, Rogers 44%, his largest lead of the campaign to date. Support was strongest among young voters, women and college graduates.
• CNN/SSRS (Aug. 31–Sept. 3, 600 likely voters): El-Sayed 47%, Rogers 44%
• Emerson and Washington Post/George Mason (released in September): El-Sayed led by 2 and 3 points respectively

August

• Susquehanna (Aug. 11–17, 800 likely voters): El-Sayed 46%, Rogers 39%
• AARP Michigan: El-Sayed 48%, Rogers 47% (field dates weren’t listed in the source)

Before the primary, the picture was different. Glengariff (July 28) had Rogers ahead 49% to 39%, and EPIC-MRA (Aug. 2) had Rogers up 46% to 43%. A July 22–24 poll commissioned by the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan found Rogers leading El-Sayed 48% to 41% while Stevens led Rogers by two. The primary result appears to have consolidated Democrats behind El-Sayed.

Some caution is warranted. In mid-August, RealClearPolitics’ average showed El-Sayed up just 0.7 points, and a number of the recent leads are within the margin of error. Markets are more bullish: Kalshi gave El-Sayed about a 67% chance of winning, down from the mid-70s earlier in October.

Behind The Michigan Senate Campaign

The tone has been harsh. Trump has attacked El-Sayed in personal terms, and Republican-aligned outside groups have outspent El-Sayed’s allies roughly 2 to 1 since the primary. El-Sayed has run on health care and economic issues, and a pollster at TIPP said the race will be determined by bread-and-butter economics, not culture and identity issues. Rogers has courted Democratic-leaning voters and stressed economic themes. Michigan’s largest newspaper endorsed El-Sayed and called Rogers “extremist.”

Governor’s race polling puts Democrat Jocelyn Benson ahead of Republican John James, and she has generally run ahead of El-Sayed. That suggests some Democratic-leaning voters may split their tickets.

What to Watch For in The Michigan Senate Race

With early voting underway, the key questions are turnout in Detroit and its suburbs (where Susquehanna had El-Sayed up 62% to 24%), how independents break, and whether the spending gap tightens the race. Polls in this race have varied enough by pollster that the final result could be close.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson