Game 6 – Celtics vs. Heat Picks, Predictions, Odds

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The NBA Playoffs resume on Saturday night with Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from the Kaseya Center in South Florida at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

The total has gone UNDER in five of last six matchups between the Celtics and Heat in Miami. (Getty)


Over the course of the postseason, the Celtics have become the high school student that waits until the very last second to turn in their homework before the bell rings, and so far, this series has unfolded in a similar manner, but the question is, did their procrastination finally get the best of them this time?

Not too long ago, the Celtics were pushed to the brink of elimination after falling behind 3-2 against the Sixers in the conference semis, and for a little while, the fate of their campaign legitimately hung in the balance, as Boston trailed by a score of 83-81 with roughly four minutes left on the clock in a win-or-go-home Game 6, before suddenly flipping a switch and dominating Philly by a score of 124-91 for the remaining 52 minutes of the series. 

And let’s not forget, the Celtics also dropped a pair of games to a mediocre Atlanta’ squad in the series prior to their seven-game battle with Philly.

Now, flip forward to the ECF, and they find themselves in a similar situation, but in the likes of Evel Knievel, the Celtics continue to raise the level of difficulty with each stunt, and if the C’s manage to escape from this series alive after going down 3-0 out of the gate, it’ll be a defining moment for this team.

The Heat had a chance to crack out the brooms at home in Game 4, however, the Celtics clearly had different plans in mind, as Jayson Tatum and co. managed to dodge elimination by knocking down 40% of their 45 three-point attempts on the way to a 116-99 road victory to cut the series lead to 3-1.

Game 5 was a similar story, as the Celtics jumped out to a 15-point lead in the first quarter of the most recent meeting between these teams, and never trailed on the way to a 110-97 victory, while shooting 51% from the floor and 41% from three-point range.

No team has ever come back from a three-game deficit to win a playoff series, an astounding record of 0-150 all-time to this date, but this situation seems to be a little bit different.

First off, teams that gain a 3-0 series lead go on to sweep the opposing team 61% of the time, and they close out the series in the fifth game 29% of the time. So, by extending this series to Game 6, the Celtics have already established themselves as a rarity among teams that have ever trailed by three games in a playoff series.

The Celtics are the only team in the entire league that ranks Top 3 in both offensive and defensive rating, and the fact that they were originally listed as -550 favorites to win this series was no mistake.

However, Boston has clearly lacked mental toughness at times during these playoffs, and it’s impossible to predict which version of this team is going to show up on any given night. 

The Celtics have posted a mediocre record of 10-8 since the start of the postseason, which includes a record of 0-5 in matchups decided by seven points or less; and the Tatum-Brown duo continues to disappear in big moments, highlighted by Boston’s two superstars combining for just 20 points on 4-of-15 shooting in the fourth quarters of Games 1 through 3 in this series.

But let’s also be mindful of the fact that the Heat ranked just 25th in offensive rating and 27th in three-point percentage during the regular season, and while ultimately, their offense has been much better than that in the playoffs, Miami may need to return to the formula that separated them from the pack in years past in order to further their success – controlling the pace and playing great defense.

In Games 4 and 5, the Celtics finally brought their best stuff on defense and held Miami to less than 100 points in back-to-back contests, but ultimately, the Heat failed to match their activity level and surrendered 110+ points in both losses.

Slamming the door on this Celtics’ squad isn’t going to be easy, but if history has anything to say about the future of this series, it’s only a matter of time before Miami puts the final nail in the coffin. Expect the Heat to level the playing field with a strong defensive performance back at home in this one. Take the ‘under’ in Game 6.

Score Prediction: Heat 103, Celtics 101
Best Bet: Under 210.5 (-110)

BOS @ MIA Odds


Date: Saturday, May 27, 2023
Venue: Kaseya Center
Location: Miami, Florida
TV-Time: TNT, 8:30 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds


Boston Celtics
SU: 67-33
ATS: 55-44-1
O/U: 54-45-1
PPG: 117.9
OPPG: 111.4

Miami Heat
SU: 56-44
ATS: 43-55
O/U: 52-46
PPG: 109.5
OPPG: 109.8

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last seven matchups against Miami. (Getty)


  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 16 games.
  • The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against Miami.
  • The Celtics are 2-5 SU in their last seven games against Miami.
  • The Heat are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Miami's last 16 games.
  • The Heat are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games.
  • The Heat are 7-1 SU in their last eight home games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 14 road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of Miami's last six home games against Boston.