Game 7 – Heat vs. Celtics Picks, Predictions, Odds

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The NBA Playoffs resume on Monday night with Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. Coverage begins from TD Garden in Boston at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

The Celtics are 2-6 ATS in their last eight matchups against Miami. (Getty)


In their second chance to close out this series at home in Game 6, the Heat’s top two players simply didn’t bring their best stuff on Saturday night, as Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for just 35 points on 9-of-37 from the field in the most recent meeting between these teams.

That said, the Heat still came incredibly close to escaping with a win in Game 6, as Butler drew a foul on a three-point attempt to give the Heat a 103-102 lead with three seconds left on the clock. But in miraculous fashion, the Celtics came back the other way and missed a game-winner, only to have it tipped in by Derrick White at the buzzer to send this series to Game 7.

Similar to Miami, Boston clearly didn’t have its A-Game in Game 6 either, as the Celtics knocked down just 20% of their 35 three-point attempts in Saturday’s contest, with Tatum driving the struggle bus by going 0-of-8 from long-range – and as a team, they shot 44% from the field overall.

But in a rock fight in which both teams made less than 45% of their shot-attempts, the fact that the Heat had multiple chances to seal the deal in the closing minutes speaks volumes about the stone cold identity of this Miami’ squad.

The Heat truly had Boston on the ropes down the stretch of Game 6, and in theory, if Duncan Robinson would’ve drilled a pair of wide open three-point attempts inside the final 1:30 of Saturday’s contest, Miami might be on a plane headed to Denver right now.

But instead, the Heat hit the road for Game 7 in Boston, a contest in which they find themselves tagged as steep 7.5-point underdogs.

Over the course of NBA history, teams that gain a 3-0 series lead in the playoffs go on to sweep the opposing team 61% of the time. They close out the series in the fifth game 29% of the time, they close it out in six 7% of the time, and they close it in seven 2% of the time – and nobody’s ever come all the way back to win a series after losing the first three matchups.

So, by extending this series to Game 7, the Celtics already belong in extremely rare company among teams that have ever trailed by three games in a playoff series – but will they become the first in NBA history to pull off the ultimate feat?

The oddsmakers certainly think so, considering that Boston is tagged as a heavy -325 favorite to win Game 7. But as for me, I still have my concerns regarding the mental toughness of this Celtics’ squad, as well as their lack of experience in the coaching department when it comes to crunch time. 

It’s tough to imagine Butler and Adebayo playing any worse than they did in Game 6, but even if their struggles continue, the Heat have already proven capable of standing toe-to-toe with Boston at times when things aren’t necessarily going their way.

In last year’s Eastern Conference Finals between Miami and Boston, the road team won five-of-seven games, and in this year’s rematch, the road team has now won four-of-six, meaning that the road team has won 9-of-13 playoff meetings between these teams in the last two years. 

The Heat may appear a bit undermanned on paper, but all things considered, these squads are pretty evenly matched, and very familiar with each other. Erik Spoelstra’s crew has no qualms about playing away from their home arena, and not only do they intend on keeping Game 7 close, but they intend on winning it as well. 

There’s a good chance that this one goes down to the wire just like Saturday’s penultimate did. Brace for an exciting series finale. Take the points with Miami in Game 7.

Score Prediction: Celtics 99, Heat 97
Best Bet: Heat +7.5 (-110)

MIA @ BOS Odds


Date: Monday, May 29, 2023
Venue: TD Garden
Location: Boston, Massachusetts
TV-Time: TNT, 8:30 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds


Miami Heat
SU: 56-45
ATS: 44-55
O/U: 52-47
PPG: 109.5
OPPG: 109.8

Boston Celtics
SU: 68-33
ATS: 55-45-1
O/U: 54-46-1
PPG: 117.9
OPPG: 111.4

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

The total has gone UNDER in three straight matchups between Miami and Boston. (Getty)


  • The Celtics are 2-6 ATS in their last eight matchups against Miami.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 17 games.
  • The Heat are 5-3 SU in their last eight games against Boston.
  • The Heat are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Boston's last eight home games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Miami's last 12 road games.
  • The Heat are 4-2 ATS in this series.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three straight matchups between Miami and Boston.