2026 Fantasy Baseball Fade List: 5 High-ADP Hitters to Avoid

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

10 minute read

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As the 2026 MLB season approaches, draft boards are beginning to crystallize. While it’s easy to be seduced by last year’s flashy stat lines, winning a fantasy championship, or cashing a season-long prop requires identifying where the public has inflated a player's value.

The following five hitters are currently being drafted at their absolute ceilings, ignoring significant Statcast red flags and aging curves. Here is why you should fade these five names at their current ADP.

These hitters headline the latest MLB odds, and fading these players and their teams could be worth it as the season begins. Click the module below to use our Underdog promo code to get drafting today.

Updated on 3/18/26

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1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, Chicago Cubs)

Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) was the darling of the 2025 first half, posting a gaudy 25 home runs and 27 steals before the All-Star break. However, the second half told a different story: 6 HRs, a .216 batting average, and only 8 stolen bases.

The Red Flags:

• Plate Discipline: PCA sits in the 2nd percentile in chase rate with a 28.9% whiff rate.
• The Eye: A 4.5% walk rate is unsustainable for a top-30 pick.
• Verdict: He is a prime regression candidate likely to end up in a platoon role against lefties. At pick 28, the value is simply not there when proven commodities like Jackson Merrill or Seiya Suzuki are still on the board.

2. Sal Frelick (OF, Milwaukee Brewers)

Frelick’s .288 batting average from last season is a mirage. While he puts the bat on the ball, the quality of contact is among the worst in the league.

The Analytics:

• xStats: His .255 xBA and .339 xSLG suggest he was the beneficiary of extreme luck.
• Power Metrics: 5th percentile in exit velocity and 4th percentile in hard-hit rate.
• Verdict: Frelick lacks the power to drive in runs and the walk rate (7.9%) to be an elite OBP asset. Currently projected to bat 5th, expect him to slide to the bottom of the Milwaukee order as his "luck" stabilizes.

3. Jose Altuve (2B, Houston Astros)

Altuve has been a fantasy titan for over a decade, but at age 35, the underlying metrics are screaming "fade."

The Breakdown:

• Bat Speed: Now in the 18th percentile, Altuve can no longer turn on pitches like he used to.
• Pitch Recognition: He has become a "fastball merchant," posting a 13 run value against heaters but failing to record a value above 1 against any other pitch type.
• Verdict: With his sprint speed in a multi-year decline and a 5th percentile chase rate, Altuve's floor is much lower than his top-tier price tag suggests.

4. Yandy Diaz (1B, Tampa Bay Rays)

Diaz benefited immensely from the hitter-friendly dimensions of Steinbrenner Field last season (18 HR at home vs. 7 away). With the Rays returning to the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, his power numbers are set to crater.

Key Concerns:

• Aging Profile: At 34, Diaz saw a significant drop in max exit velocity last year.
• Launch Angle: A 5.8% pull-air percentage means he isn't hitting the ball where it counts.
• Verdict: Diaz is a regression candidate in a neutral-to-bad hitting environment. Avoid him in favor of younger 1B options with higher ceilings.

5. Trea Turner (SS, Philadelphia Phillies)

Trea Turner remains a top-50 staple, but the days of him being a five-category monster are fading. He has become the definition of "league average" in almost every Statcast category.

The Data:

• Three-Year Trend: His xSLG has been on a continuous decline since 2022.
• Plate Profile: Chase and whiff rates have lingered in the bottom half of the league for three consecutive seasons.
• Verdict: While Turner still offers speed, his power and average are no longer elite. You are better off drafting Manny Machado or Vinnie Pasquantino, who offer more stability in the early rounds.

Dishonorable Mentions (Quick Fades)

Cal Raleigh (C, SEA): His 38.4% pull-air rate is a massive outlier that likely won't repeat. His 2025 was so strong, it is more likely to get worse than better.

CJ Abrams (SS, WAS): High volume on a bad team masks his average peripherals. He is one bad slump away from losing his leadoff spot. If that happens, then the Abrams hype is all over.

Jackson Chourio (OF, MIL): Elite speed but average discipline. Like Abrams, his value is tied to his lineup spot, one which Brice Turang is actively hunting.

Looking to draft MLB best ball teams on underdog? Check out our primer on Underdog MLB Best Ball Drafts.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson