MLB Home Run Player Props For Today, May 24

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

These are the four best home run props for today, May 24, 2025:

• Rafael Devers (+420)
• Jonathan Aranda (+480)
• Freddie Freeman (+650)
• Will Smith (+600)

Keep reading for more details about Saturday’s MLB home run prop bets.

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MLB Home Run Picks for May 24, 2025

Rafael Devers (+420 | FD) vs. Baltimore Orioles (SP: Zach Eflin) Game 1

Rafael Devers got off to a slow start of the season, and although he decided he is not playing anywhere he doesn’t want to, he HAS decided that he is going to hit home runs. This guy is in the top-90th percentile for all of the key statistics, exit velocity, hard hit %, barrel %, and on top of that he is in the 85th percentile for chase %.

Not only is he coming off of a two homerun game, he has two homeruns against Eflin in his career. With winds blowing out to right field, I expect him to add on to that total today.

Jonathan Aranda (+480 | FD) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (SP: José Berríos)

This matchup is too much to ignore. Not only has Aranda shown great improvement this season, but he has had success against Berríos in his career.

His xBA against Berríos is a .405, with an xSLG of 1.216. He has totalled 3 homeruns against José in only 11 plate appearances. He has not had a homerun since May 13th, so why not get back on track for the holiday weekend?

Freddie Freeman (+650 | bet365) vs. New York Mets (SP: David Peterson)

Updated on 5/25/25

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We have a great hitter, with a great matchup, and wind blowing out to right. This is a perfect storm for Freddie Freeman to go yard.

Peterson has given up a long ball in two of his last three appearances, a bit unusual for the ground ball focused southpaw. Freeman has two homeruns in his career against Peterson, and with this wind blowing out at over 10 MPH to right field if Freeman can get some air under it, there is no reason why he can’t touch ‘em all today.

Will Smith (+600 | FD) vs. New York Mets (SP: David Peterson)

Will Smith has great underlying stats, although his home run numbers don’t necessarily reflect this. He is in the top-75th percentile in xSLG, xBA, xwOBA, hard-hit %, and many others.

He currently has the best solid contact rates and barrel rates of his career complimenting the beneficial wind gusts we will see at Citi Field.

There are also breadcrumbs that could lead us to believe that Peterson has overperformed to this point of the season. His xERA is 3.99 but his current ERA is 2.86 and he is in the 22nd percentile for hard hit rate allowed. He has only allowed 4 home runs this year, so this will be a tall task. However, Peterson’s current form could allow Smith to take advantage.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 2 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson