MLB Home Run Props and Best Bets for Today, May 29th
These are the four best home run props for today, May 29, 2025:
- Matt Olson (+525)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (+440)
- Kyle Schwarber (+280)
- Jeremy Peña (+680)
Keep reading for more details about Thursday's MLB home run prop bets.
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Home Runs Odds
Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+525 | bet365) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (SP: Christopher Sánchez/Game 1)
Updated on 5/30/25
Olson has faced Sánchez 12 times and tallied four hits, two of which have been home runs. We know the power that Matt Olson is capable of unleashing. He is in the 97th percentile or better in exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, indicating that when he makes contact he is destroying the baseball.
The three pitches that Olson struggles with (curveball, cutter, slurve) Sánchez does not have in his arsenal. I could see Olson unlocking his power against a divisional rival and going yard.
Ronald Acuña Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+440 | FD) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (SP: Zack Wheeler/Game 2)
Zack Wheeler is a stud, but if there is one Brave that has had success against him it is Ronald Acuña Jr.
He recently returned from injury in style, hitting the first pitch he saw for a home run to dead center. It is hard to use any MLB data from this season to back up this pick since he has been in the MLB for such a short time this season. However, his four home runs in 54 plate appearances against Wheeler shows me all I need to see.
Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+280 | FD) vs. Atlanta Braves (SP: Chris Sale/Game 2)
The reigning National League Cy Young has shut down most of this Phillies lineup, except for Kyle Schwarber. For whatever reason, Schwarber has dominated Sale going 4-9 with two home runs.
Both of these home runs have been against four seam fastballs. The key here would be for Schwarber to jump on an early fastball when he sees them. The success he has had against Sale is too much to ignore for this home run bet.
Jeremy Peña to Hit a Home run (+680 | FD) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (SP: Shane Baz)
Peña is the only Astro that has taken Shane Baz yard. In six plate appearances Peña has tallied three hits, one of which was a home run. He has destroyed four-seam fastballs this season, which is the only fastball that Baz has in the arsenal. Peña is batting .375 against the four-seam fastball and has a whopping run value of seven.
He is currently boasting his best pulled fly ball rate of his career, and his xBA has never been better. Between the matchup and his strength against the fastball, Peña could go yard against a guy that throws nearly 50% heaters.
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