MLB Home Run Props and Best Bets for Friday, May 23rd

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

Here are the three MLB home run best bets for today, Friday, May 23:

• Marcel Ozuna (+320)
• Xander Bogaerts (+1000)
• Mookie Betts (+600)

Keep reading for Friday’s MLB home run prop bets.

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MLB Home Run Picks for May 23

• Mookie Betts (+600 | bet365) vs. New York Mets (SP: Griffin Canning)

Updated on 5/26/25

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Mookie Betts is squaring up the ball better than the majority of other MLB hitters. His 42% squared-up % currently puts him in the 100th percentile for that statistic. 

He has a great history against Mets pitcher Griffin Canning, including a sub-15% strikeout rate. He has hit one homerun off of Canning in his career, going 3-8 with a walk.

Griffin Canning’s 2.47 ERA while holding a .375 xERA indicates that we could see some negative regression for Canning soon. Why not today?

• Marcel Ozuna (+320 | FD) vs. San Diego Padres (SP: Nick Pivetta)

This is a play on the matchup through and through. In 31 ABs against Pivetta, Ozuna has 8 hits, 6 of which have been home runs. Ozuna has a pulled fly ball rate of 22.9%, which is crucial for generating power.

Pivetta is another guy that is overperforming based on his xERA. His current ERA sits at 2.86, while his xERA is 3.57. His pulled fly ball rate has gotten higher and higher as his career goes on, sitting at around 20% in 2025. A simple check of the MLB weather shows us wind out to center at 8 MPH, setting Ozuna up for success.

He has managed to avoid a crisis so far, but an old friend in Marcel Ozuna may have Pivetta primed for a rude awakening.

• Xander Bogaerts (+1000 | FD) vs. Atlanta Braves (SP: Chris Sale)

I mentioned above that the wind will be blowing out to center in this game, and this is another match up that benefits the batter.

Bogaerts is 7 for 23 against Sale in his career with one home run and an average launch angle of nearly 16 degrees. Although Bogaerts has yet to tally a home run off of a lefty this season, he is batting .283 against southpaws showing promise.

At +1000, Bogaerts is a great longshot to take to go yard today against the defending NL Cy Young winner.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 2 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson