Weekend Watch

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

Ninth and On
There is nothing worse for a bettor of baseball than looking like you're going to win for the entire game and then some reliever comes in and craps the bed in the ninth inning (or later) to ruin what would have been a winning ticket. You're just left shaking your head muttering, "I was on the right side the whole time. (expletive - insert pitcher's name)."

Below are the teams in the Top 5 and Bottom 5 in bullpen ERA in the ninth inning and beyond. There might only be eight miles of urban sprawl separating Guaranteed Rate Field and Wrigley Field, but the two are separated by light years in terms of record and bullpen ERA. The Cubs, the Blue Jays, the Diamondbacks, the Phillies and the Yankees have made bettors feel very comfortable in the later innings, as their bullpens were carefully crafted in spring training and have been on point for the first month of the season. If you see a guy at the sportsbook covering his eyes in the ninth inning, he likely has a ticket with the Padres and Reds. They have been brutal so far this season, killing side bettors and total bettors alike with their terrible ninth-inning showings. As such, it's no surprise both teams reside in the basement of their respective divisions.

Disastrous Double Dip
The White Sox and Royals will be battling to get out of the American League Central Division cellar when the two square off at Kauffman Stadium on Saturday. Both sides have been god awful so far this season. We expected that from the White Sox, but the stumbling out of the chute by the Royals is rather surprising.

The White Sox are an impressive 4-0 in their past four opening games of a doubleheader, so they have that going for them Saturday. However, they entered play Friday 5-16 over their past 21 games, 23-52 in their past 75 on the road and 3-14 in their past 17 on grass. The Royals are also a solid 8-3 in their past 11 opening games of a double dip. However, their pitchers have been disastrous, going 7-20 over the past 27 games overall. They're 4-9 in the past 13 games inside the division, too, while going an astounding 1-11 across their past 12 games at home.


Looking Ahead

Saturday, April 28
The wind will be blowing hard at the Green Monster at Fenway Park, gusting 10-14 mph straight to left field. Entering play on Friday, the over was 7-2 in the past nine meetings at Fenway Park, and the over has been hitting frequently for both sides lately. The over is 6-1 in Tampa's past seven on the road, and 13-3 in their past 16 overall. The over is also 5-0 in their past five against winning teams. For the Red Sox, the over is 6-1-1 in their past eight at home, and 7-3-1 in their past 11 inside the division. The over is also 6-1-1 in Boston's past eight at home against a right-handed starting pitcher, while going 10-3-1 in their past 14 overall vs. RHP. David Price will get a crack at his former team, and the Red Sox are 4-1 in his past five outings against the Rays, too.

At AT&T Park in San Francisco, the bitter rival Dodgers and Giants hook up for a doubleheader. It will be cool alongside the bay, with temperatures in the upper 50's, but it will feel even chillier with a steady wind from 15-18 mph blowing straight out to center field. While that's bad news for Walker Buehler and Chris Stratton in the opener, it might be good news for 'over' bettors. Game 2 features Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five second games of a doubleheader for the Dodgers, and 20-7 in Wood's past 27 against losing teams. The over is also 5-0 in his past five road outings against a team with a losing record. Rest hasn't done Cueto a lot of good, as the over is 5-0 in his past five on five days of rest, while going 9-4 in his past 13 overall. Los Angeles has won just 10 times in their past 32 trips to San Francisco heading into Friday's affair.

A pair of left-handed pitchers will be throwing in San Diego, as LHP Jason Vargas meets rookie LHP Joey Lucchesi. The Mets will see a couple of southpaws to open the season, working against LHP Clayton Richard in the opener on Friday, too. New York enters the series 4-0 in their past four on the road against left-handed starters, and 6-1 in their past seven overall vs. LHP. However, they're also just 19-39 in their past 58 against NL West teams. For the Padres, they haven't had a lot of luck with pitching, and we highlighted their late bullpen struggles above. They're 0-4 in their past four tries vs. LHP, and just 4-11 over the past 15 games overall. They're also a dismal 2-9 in the past 11 against teams with a winning percentage over .600.

Weather Report
The will be blowing in hard for Saturday's matinee action between the Brewers and Cubs on the north side, first pitch at 1:20 p.m. CT. There is a zero percent of precipitation for the game, but the baseball game will be impacted by winds from 17-21 mph howling out of the north, or in from left field to first base. That will knock down any potential home runs balls, making it very difficult to muscle the ball out of the park.

Winds will also be a factor at Nationals Park, blowing left to right at 10-15 mph. Left-handed hitters could have a field day for the Diamondbacks, as they face RHP Jeremy Hellickson (0-0, 4.50 ERA). The Diamondbacks will counter with LHP Patrick Corbin, who enters the game 4-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.66 WHIP while striking out 48 batters over five starts (33 1/3 innings). Hitters are having no luck against him so far, going just 16-for-114 (.140), but left-handed hitters are even worse at just 3-for-26 (.115) with no extra-base hits, no RBI and nine strikeouts. That's why Arizona is installed as a road favorite, and the wind should aid their batters against the journeyman Hellickson.

The winds will be whipping off of Lake Erie, too, as the Mariners and Indians can expect winds from 10-14 mph blowing in steadily from left field to home plate. In Philadelphia, Citizens Bank Park is a bandbox and batters do not need extra assistance snapping the ball out of the park. They'll get a nice jetstream heading out to right field, though. This came could also be impacted by rains in the later innings. In Pittsburgh, wind will be blowing out to the right-center field power alley at a 10-13 mph clip.

Sunday, April 29
The Royals will use RHP Ian Kennedy trying to win a game against the equally disappointing White Sox. If Kennedy is to have success he'll need to shut down 1B Jose Abreu. The first baseman is 9-for-21 (.429) with three homers and a 1.312 OPS in his career against the veteran. SS Tim Anderson doesn't have as much experience against Kennedy, but he is an impressive 5-for-16 (.313) with two doubles and three walks against him. OF Avisail Garcia is 5-for-18 (.278) with a homer in his brief dealings with the K.C. starter, too.

The Yankees and Angels will hook up in front of the national television audience on Sunday night, and a pair of left-handed pitchers will be doing battle. Veteran CC Sabathia has looked rejuvenated so far this season, as he is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP through four outings. He won in his most recent outing, and he hasn't allowed an earned run across 10 1/3 innings in his past two starts. That's the one knock on Sabathia to this point, as he hasn't been going very deep into games. Despite the outstanding surface numbers, he does have just one quality start to his credit in four outings. As such, expect to see plenty of the Yankees bullpen.

For the Halos, they counter with LHP Tyler Skaggs, who has been pretty decent at 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.21 WHIP while punching out 24 batters over 27 1/3 innings. All of his success has been on the road, however, where he is 3-0 with a 0.49 ERA in three starts. In front of the home folks he has been atrocious, going 0-1 with a 8.00 ERA in two outings totaling just nine innings, and the opponent is hitting a robust .325 off of him at the Big A. Those aren't the type of numbers you want to see with Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton getting ready to tee off.

Weather Report
There is a chance lingering showers could potentially delay the start of Sunday's Rays-Red Sox game, but the weather should cooperate. Winds will be blowing from 8-11 mph out to right-center field for a minor impact.

The winds will be a lot more ferocious in Baltimore, gusting 15-18 mph from left to right, helping out left-handed hitters with designs of bumping one off of the warehouse. Winds will again be blowing in at Progressive Field in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon, and this time at a 14-17 mph clip with chilly temperatures in the low 40's. In Kansas City, winds will blow right to left at 12-15 mph, impacting many right-handed power batters.

Wind will be a factor at several National League parks as well, with the winds blowing hard from 15-18 mph out to right field in Philadelphia and Washington on Sunday. In Pittsburgh, the winds will be 14-17 mph gusting to the power alley in right-center field again. That would make it a rough day for unproven starters Luke Weaver and Nick Kingham.

The winner for the wind award will again be AT&T Park in San Francisco. The Dodgers and Giants will be playing with extremely windy conditions, blowing out up to 22 mph to straight away center field in what could be a homer-fest, even with solid pitchers Kenta Maeda and Ty Blach on the bump.

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