Ballpark Figures – Week 17

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

Dominating the Opposition
The Milwaukee Brewers have struggled inside the National League Central Division, posting a dismal 19-25 record, one of the major reasons they're 3 1/2 games off the pace behind the Chicago Cubs. However, they're 15-9 against the NL East, and 12-4 against the NL West this season. That's good news for the Brew Crew, as they host the Nationals for three games before heading out on an eight-game road trip to San Francisco and Los Angeles. Starting July 26, the Brewers have 14 in a row through Aug. 9 against West Division clubs.

Another Central Division foe, the Pittsburgh Pirates, have a nine-game winning streak heading into their interleague series opener in Cleveland on Monday. The Bucs could stay hot, as they're 10-2 in interleague games so far this season.

The New York Yankees have posted a 13-4 record this season against the American League Central Division. That's good news when looking ahead, as they have a four-game set with the visiting Kansas City Royals starting on Thursday night. On the flip side, the Kansas City Royals are just 3-15 against the AL East. While they have been just mediocre at 17-21 inside their own division, a four-game set against the Bronx Bombers is not what they need. 

Looking Ahead

Monday, July 23
The lowly Orioles will host the first-place Red Sox at Camden Yards, and Kevin Gausman takes the ball for the home side. Gausman is 4-7 with a 4.33 ERA this season, with all four of those victories coming at home. He was tuned up in the first meeting in Fenway Park, allowing six earned runs, eight hits and two walks over just 4 2/3 innings in a loss on May 17. There are a number of Red Sox who feast on Gausman's pitching, including All-Star Mookie Betts. He is 15-for-32 (.469) with a double, three homers and seven RBI with a 1.309 OPS. J.D. Martinez is just starting to see Gausman on a more frequent basis, but he has excelled in their brief encounters. He is 5-for-10 (.500) with a homer and four RBI. Xander Bogaerts is also a solid .289 (11-for-38) wth a double, a homer and five RBI. At least Gausman will get relief against the catchers, and Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez are a combined 0-for-23 with 12 strikeouts against the starter.

Miami's Jose Urena has a 2-9 record, but his ERA (4.39) and WHIP (1.22) are certainly not as poor as his record. Chalk it up to poor run support. He has also been on the short end every time at home, going 0-7 with a 4.26 ERA across 12 outings at Marlins Park. That's shocking since he has good stuff in his home park, whiffing 60 batters in 67 2/3 innings. He is 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in two outings against the Braves this season. On the flip side, LHP Sean Newcomb is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in 12 innings across two starts against the Marlins, and Miami is hitting just .125 against him so far.

Rangers LHP Cole Hamels has had his name bandied about in trade rumors, but he is still wearing Texas across his chest with about a week to go until the non-waiver trade deadline. He might not be against a deal anywhere else, as he has been atrocious at Globe Life Park. Hamels is 4-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 10 starts on the road, but just 1-6 with a 5.83 ERA across 54 innings over nine home outings with the opposition hitting .279 against him.

The Phillies host the Dodgers on Monday night at 'The Vault'. The Dodgers streak in with a 19-7 record in their past 26 road outings, and they're 20-6 in the past 26 against right-handed starting pitchers. They're also 14-3 in the past 17 road contests against teams with a winning record. The Phillies are 6-1 in their past seven at home, but they could be a bit sluggish after a day-night doubleheader on Sunday against the Padres. They're also 1-5 in the past six starts by Zack Eflin against the NL West.

Weather Report
The only thing that might cool off the Red Sox will be a drink from Mother Nature. Thunderstorms are forecast for Charm City, listed at 40 percent or greater for the entire evening. As you might expect, Philly is very close in proximity to Balto. and the same forecast applies. Both cities have winds blowing 10-13 mph from home plate to left field, so if the games are played they could be high scoring.

In Queens, the Padres and Mets might need the tarpaulin for the field, as the forecast calls for thunderstorms at 60 percent throughout the evening.

In Texas, it will be cooler than over the weekend against the Indians. The forecast for first pitch is listed at 101 degrees, down six from Friday's outing. There will be a hot wind blowing out to right field from 12-15 mph, aiding left-handed hitters.

Tuesday, July 24
The Braves and Marlins play a day game in Miami. Atlanta has posted a 21-13 record in day games this season, while Miami is 13-20. Julio Teheran might not be the best start to pitch in the matinee game, however, as he has a 5.12 ERA through 45 2/3 innings over eight starts during the daytime. He was also rocked for six earned runs, seven hits and three walks over five innings in a no-decision in his only start with the Marlins this season back on May 20. While Wei-Yin Chen has a sparkling 1.83 ERA at Marlins Park this season over seven starts, with the opposition hitting just .204 against him over 39 1/3 innings, he has a dismal 6.23 ERA in four day starts over 21 2/3 innings.

The Padres and Mets tangle in a scheduled battle of southpaws. The Padres are just 7-19 across their past 26 vs. LHP, and 16-36 over their past 52 on the road against lefties. They're just 1-4 in the past five against NL East foes, and 1-5 over Joey Lucchesi's past six appearances. While those numbers are pretty appalling, the Mets are equally bad. They're just 5-16 in the past 21 against losing sides, and 6-21 in their past 27 at home vs. LHP. They're also 0-6 in their past six against NL West teams, 0-5 in their past five vs. LHP and 2-8 in Jason Vargas' past 10 starts overall. The biggest winner might be 'over' bettors, as the total has gone over in six of the past seven meetings in this series heading into Monday.

In late-night action, the Giants and Mariners battle in another southpaw-on-southpaw fight. The Giants enter the new week with just one win in the past five outings, and they're 2-8 in their past 10 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. They're also 1-6 in the past seven overall against southpaws, while going just 2-5 in Andrew Suarez's past seven on the road. The Mariners have cooled off lately, winning just two of the past seven heading into the new week. They're also just 1-4 in the past five vs. LHP, and 1-6 in their past seven interleague battles. Seattle has been upended in each of the past four against winning teams. While the M's are 5-1 in James Paxton's past six at home against a team with a winning record, they're just 2-6 in his past eight interleague assignments.

Weather Report
The Red Sox and Orioles will be battling the raindrops, as the forecast calls for a 65 percent or greater chance of thunderstorms. Expect a postponement.

Just up the road in Philly, the weather isn't a mirror of Baltimore. The thunderstorm chances are 30 percent or less until 10 p.m. ET, so they should get it in, or at least play an official game. The Dodgers and Phillies will also see a jetstream of 11-14 mph blowing out to left field.

The Pirates and Indians also might be starting at a possible lengthy weather delay and/or postponement, with the forecast calling for 50 percent or greater chance of thunderstorms. There is a slight chance of rain in the Padres-Mets game, but the big story will be 14-17 mph winds blowing out to the left-center field power alley.

The Astros-Rockies game could also be bothered by storms, as there is a 40 percent or greater chance of thunderstorms in the Mile High City.

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