Weekly Total Talk

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Southpaw Showdown
The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers kick off a four-game set at Chavez Ravine, and it's a battle of left-handed starting pitchers. LHP Jon Lester takes the ball for manager Joe Maddon, while manager Dave Roberts counters with LHP Clayton Kershaw.

Lester enters the game with a 5-4 record, 3.56 ERA and .313 opponent on-base percentage while recording 62 strikeouts over 65 2/3 innings in his 12 starts. While he is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA at home this season across 36 2/3 innings, he is just 2-2 with a 4.97 ERAand 1.23 ERA over his 29 innings on the road. He has picked up victories in two of his past three outings, but he has a dismal 5.79 ERA across 18 2/3 innings over his past three outings, too. Kershaw is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 59 strikeouts over his 66 innings this season. He is coming off a loss last time out in San Francisco despite posting a quality starts with just two earned runs, six hits and a walk over seven innings. It was L.A.'s first loss over his past 19 outings.

 The over is 3-0-1 in the past four starts by Lester, while going 7-1 in his past eight outings on the road against teams with a winning overall record. In addition, the Cubs are 12-3-1 in the past 16 road starts by Lester, while going 9-3 in the past 12 starts overall on the road against teams with a winning percentage over .600. For the Dodgers, the under is 3-0-1 in the past four games at home, while going a perfect 5-0 in the past five games vs. LHP. The under is also 4-1 in L.A.'s past five at home vs. LHP, while going 5-1-1 in the past seven home outings by Kershaw against teams with a winning mark. They're also 7-3-1 in Kershaw's past 11 starts overall at home, and 10-1-1 in their past 12 games overall. 

Looking Ahead

Thursday, June 13
The Angels and Rays also have a pair of left-handed starting pitchers on the hill in St. Petersburg. The over is 6-1-2 in the past nine road games for the Angels, and the over is 2-0-2 in their past four road games vs. LHP. The under, however, is 9-2-2 in LHP Tyler Skaggs' past 13 starts, and 4-1-2 across his past seven on the road. The under is also 7-3-2 in his past 12 tangles with AL East foes. For the Rays, the under is a perfect 5-0 in their past five games overall, and 9-2-1 in the past 12 against teams with a losing overall mark. The under is 3-1-2 in their past six at home, too. As far as head-to-head is concerned, the under is 6-2-1 in the past nine meetings in St. Pete, and 13-5-3 in the past 21 meetings overall in this series.

The Tigers and Royals wrap up a three-game set at Kauffman Stadium. The team's have split the first two games, both by 3-2 scores, as the 'under' has connected in each. The undere is 6-0-1 in Detroit's past seven against teams with a winning percentage under .400, and 6-2 in the past eight Game 3s of a series. The under is also 3-1-2 in the past six starts by LHP Matthew Boyd, while going 6-1 in his past six against losing teams and 3-0-1 in the past four inside the AL Central. The under is 4-0 in the past four for the Royals, while going 4-0 in their past four at home, too. In the decision the Royals are also 4-0 on the under. The under is also 7-1-1 in the past nine vs. LHP, and 4-1-1 in the past six at home against lefties. In the past six meetings the under has connected in five outings, and the under is also 6-2-2 in the past 10 meetings in Kansas City.

Wind Report
Winds will not be much of a factor at most MLB parks. The Pirates and Braves will face 10-13 mph winds blowing out to the left-center field power alley for the matinee action at SunTrust Park. That's about the only trouble spot as far as winds.

Friday, June 14
The Indians and Tigers kick off a three-game set at Comerica Park in Motown. The under is 13-6-1 in Cleveland's past 20 on the road, while going 4-1 in RHP Adam Plutko's past five road outings, 8-2 in his past 10 starts overall and 4-1 in his past five against losing teams. For the Indians, the over is 4-1 in the past five vs. LHP. As far as the Tigers are concerned, they're 4-0 in LHP Ryan Carpenter's past four home outings, 4-1 in his past five against winning teams and 4-1-1 in the past six starts overall. The over is also 4-1 in Carpenter's past five starts against a team with a winning overall record, too.

The Yankees roll out LHP CC Sabathia and against the red-hot RHP Lucas Giolito is a prime pitching matchup on Friday night at Guaranteed Rate Field. The over is 23-6-2 in the past 31 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher for the Yankees, while going 8-2-1 in their past 11 against AL Central foes. The over is also 5-1 in Sabathia's past six road starts, although the under is 6-1-1 in his past eight against AL Central opponents. The under is a perfect 7-0 across Giolito's past seven appearances, and the under is 4-1 in his past five starts at home. In addition, the under is 5-2 in Chicago's past seven against teams with a winning percentage over .600, while going 4-1 in the past five against AL East teams.

LHP Marco Gonzales starts for the Mariners while RHP Chris Bassitt toes the slab for the Athletics. The over is 18-7-1 in the past 26 games against a right-handed starting pitcher, while going 17-7-1 in the past 25 road games vs. RHP. As far as Gonzales is concerned, the under is 4-1-1 in his past six road outings. For the A's, the over is a perfect 4-0 in their past four against southpaws. However, the under is 7-2 in the past nine at home against lefties, and 3-1-1 in Bassitt's past five in Game 1 of a series. The under is 6-1-1 in Bassitt's past eight at home against a team with a losing overall mark.

Wind Report
The Red Sox and Orioles will face a stiff breeze up to 13 mph blowing out to right field early in the game, but the winds are expected to subside as the game wears on. The Cardinals and Mets will also face a 12-15 mph jetstream blowing across the field from left to right.

In Detroit, the Indians and Tigers will experience a stiff 13-16 mph breeze blowing in from right field to knock down fly balls off the bat of left-handed power hitters. In another AL Central battle, the Royals and Twins will see a 12-15 mph wind blowing out to the left-center field power alley. The big wind winner will be the Yankees and White Sox, as they have a 15-18 mph strong wind blowing out to left field. 

In the Bay Area, the Mariners and A's will face a 10-13 mph wind blowing out to straightaway center field, while the Brewers and Giants see winds whipping up to 11-14 mph out to the left-center field power alley.

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