Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM
KBO Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for July 8
It is July 7th, and we are still without Major League Baseball.
Luckily, we still have live baseball being played in South Korea (KBO), Japan (NPB), and Taiwan (CPBL).
While we must wait three weeks for the MLB season to start, we have a full slate of KBO baseball tomorrow. For tomorrow’s KBO slate I am backing two moneyline favorites, and two run lines.
Wednesday, July 8, 2020
KT Wiz (-130) at Kia Tigers (+104)
LG Twins (-109) at Doosan Bears (-117)
NC Dinos (-200) at SK Wyverns (+155)
Lotte Giants (-175) at Hanwha Eagles (+135)
Samsung Lions (-108) at Kiwoom Heroes (-120)
KBO Play of the Day
KT Wiz Moneyline -130 (William Hill)
KT Wiz Run Line -1.5 +125 (DraftKings)
Tomorrow’s nationally televised ESPN game features the 26-28 KT Wiz and the 27-24 Kia Tigers. While both teams appear to be equal on paper, the KT Wiz are a sleeping giant in the KBO and I believe that they are a much better team than their record indicates. While both teams have equally strong pitching for tomorrow’s game, the KT Wiz lineup is significantly better than the Kia Tigers lineup. That is why I am betting on the KT Wiz moneyline at -130 odds and the -1.5 run-line at +125 odds.
The reason why the KT Wiz are going to win by a large margin against the Kia Tigers is because of their hitting. The Doosan Bears are 3rd in the KBO in runs per game with an average of 5.83 runs per game. Of the 9 position players in the KT Wiz projected lineup for tomorrow’s game, 7 out of 9 position players have a wRC+ of at least 113. The Kia Tigers on the other hand average 4.90 runs per game which is below the league average of 5.19 runs per game.
Assuming both teams field a typical lineup, the KT Wiz average almost a full run more than the Kia Tigers on average. However, the x-factor in tomorrow’s game for the Kia Tigers is over what impact Second Baseman Sun-Bin Kim’s absence is going to have. Sun-Bun Kim injured his hamstring running the bases in Sunday’s game, and he is going to be out for the next 2-3 weeks.
Currently Kim has a team leading wRC+ of 147.2, and he is third among Kia hitters in OPS and WAR. Don’t let the fact that he has 0 home runs this year fool you, Kim is one of the best offensive players on the Kia Tigers and my model believes that Kim’s absence will cost the Kia Tigers .43 runs per game. The best reason for why you should bet on the KT Wiz in tomorrow’s game is due to the mismatch between the two lineups.
While the KT Wiz clearly have the best lineup for tomorrow’s game, neither team has an edge in pitching for tomorrow’s game. The starting pitcher for the Kia Tigers for tomorrow’s game is Min-Woo Lee who is 4-2 with a 4.70 ERA, and a 4.49 FIP. Opposing Lee is KT Wiz Starting Pitcher Odrisamer Despaigne who is 4-4 with a 4.32 ERA, and a 4.26 FIP.
While Despaigne is not the best pitcher in the KBO, he is a dependable pitcher for the KT Wiz as he usually pitches between 6 and 7 innings. Recently, Despaigne has not been that good as he has an ERA of 6.37 over his last 7 starts. However, I believe that Despaigne has turned a corner as he only gave up 1 earned run over 7 innings in his last start.
Even in Despaigne’s starts where he has pitched poorly, Despaigne has been able to complete 5-6 innings. This is key for tomorrow’s matchup as the KT Wiz bullpen has the 2nd highest FIP among KBO bullpens with a FIP of 5.58. The Kia Tigers bullpen on the other hand has the 2nd lowest FIP among KBO bullpens with a FIP of 4.62. While this edge in bullpens could be a problem for the KT Wiz, I believe that Odrisamer Despaigne’s stamina will keep the KT Wiz bullpen off the field. That is why I am relying on KT’s edge in hitting in order to profit off a KT Wiz moneyline bet at -130 odds and a KT Wiz -1.5 run line bet at +125 odds.
KBO Favorite to Back
Doosan Bears Moneyline -112 (DraftKings)
Doosan Bears Run Line -1.5 +165 (Bet365)
Yesterday for my pick of the day I bet on the Doosan Bears moneyline and -1.5 run line against the LG Twins, and they won today’s game 9-6. For tomorrow’s game between the same two teams, I am on betting on the Doosan Bears moneyline and -1.5 run line again. This is because while the LG Twins are clearly a good team, the Doosan Bears are one of the top two teams this season in the KBO.
The Doosan Bears are the defending 2019 Korean Series champion, and this year they are once again one of the best teams in the KBO. The Doosan Bears are currently in 3rd place in the KBO standings with a 32-22 record and they are 5.5 games behind the 1st place NC Dinos. The Doosan Bears are loaded offensively, and they face off tomorrow against the LG Twins. Like Doosan, LG is also one of the best teams in the league this year as they are in 5th place with a 29-25 record. While the LG Twins are only 3 games behind the Doosan Bears in the KBO standings, the Doosan Bears are clearly the better team and they should be -150 moneyline favorites. That is why I am betting on the Doosan Bears moneyline at -112 odds and the -1.5 run-line at +165 odds.
The reason why the Doosan Bears are going to win again by a large margin against the LG Twins is because of their hitting. The reason why the Doosan Bears have the 4th highest run differential in the KBO despite giving up the 2nd highest number of runs is because of their hitting. Out of all 10 KBO teams, The Doosan Bears are 2nd in the KBO in runs per game with an average of 6.22 runs per game. Of the 9 position players in the Doosan Bears projected lineup for tomorrow’s game, Center Fielder Soo-bin Jung is the only below-average offensive player as he only has a 80.2 wRC+ this season. The other 8 position players in the Doosan Bears have a wRC+ this season of at least 113.5. With such a well-rounded lineup, virtually every single Doosan Bears hitter is a potential minefield for the LG Twins pitching. In contrast to the Doosan Bears, the LG Twins are 5th in the KBO in runs per game with an average 5.48 runs per game. While the LG Twins are not bad offensively, they are nowhere near as good as the Doosan Bears. Even in yesterday’s game when the LG Twins managed to score 6 runs, they still could not beat the Doosan Bears who found a way to score 9 runs.
While the Doosan Bears clearly have the best lineup for tomorrow’s game, they also have slightly better pitching despite the LG Twins appearing to be better on paper. The starting pitcher for the LG Twins for tomorrow is former MLB 1st round draft pick Casey Kelly who is 3-3 with a 4.89 ERA, and a 4.72 FIP. While Casey Kelly has had a down year one of his strengths is that he has pitched for at least 6 innings in 8 of his 10 starts this year. However, while Casey Kelly is clearly an above-average KBO player since each team is limited to only 3 foreign players, the betting public this season has clearly been overvaluing foreign pitching.
The Doosan Bears starting pitcher for tomorrow’s game is Jong-Gi Park who is 1-1 with a 3.79 ERA, and a 3.67 FIP. While Park has been impressive in only 4 starts this season, he has only pitched for 6 innings once this year. However, Casey Kelly’s advantage over Jong-Gi Park in being able to pitch more innings is negated by the fact that the Doosan Bears arguably have the best bullpen in the KBO. Out of all 10 KBO teams, the Doosan Bears bullpen has the lowest FIP in the KBO with a FIP of only 4.52. In contrast to the Doosan Bears, the LG Twins bullpen has a 5.19 FIP. Based on the Doosan Bears having a much better lineup and slightly better pitching than the LG Twins, I am betting on the Doosan Bears moneyline at -112 odds and the -1.5 run line at +165 odds.