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MLB

MLB Prop Picks and Predictions for Wednesday July 29

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

MLB Wednesday Prop Plays
Boston Red Sox at New York Mets
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays

Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook
T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in NJ, CO, IN, WV, PA, and IA

First 5 Innings
Prop Pick

New York Mets – To Lead After The First 5 Innings (-134)

Mets ace, Jacob deGrom, will make his second home start of the 2020 season tonight against Nathan Eovaldi and the visiting Boston Red Sox. deGrom had a deGrom-like start to the season, tossing 5 shutout innings, allowing just 1 hit while striking out 8 Braves on Opening Day. Pitching against the Red Sox lineup should be a cakewalk for him Wednesday night, after shutting down a division rival that sees him multiple times per season.

Nathan Eovaldi is no Jake deGrom, but he too has also had a good start to the 2020 season. Eovaldi got the Opening Day start for Boston, and was able to record the team’s first, and only win so far this season, in their 14-2 win over Baltimore. In that game, Eovaldi allowed just 1 earned run on 5 hits in 6 innings against a very depleted Baltimore lineup. I expect a different story though tonight when Eovaldi takes the hill against the Mets.

Nathan Eovaldi has recorded an ERA of over 4.2 in 2 of his last 3 seasons, including a 5.99 in 12 starts and 23 appearances in 2019. I am not going to stay away from betting against Eovaldi because he looked good against BALTIMORE on Opening Day. This is a lopsided pitching matchup between one of the best starters in the bigs vs a pseudo-ace. Back the Mets and Jake deGrom to hand Nathan Eovaldi his first loss of the 2020 season by taking the Mets money line after 5 innings.

First 5 Innings
Prop Pick

Cubs-Reds: Under 4.5 Total Runs (+112)

We have a really great pitching matchup coming out of the NL Central tonight between Sonny Gray and the Cincinnati Reds, versus Cubs ace Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks stole the show on Opening Day, tossing a 3-hit, complete game shutout against Ryan Braun’s Milwaukee Brewers. He will be looking to build off that performance Wednesday night against Cincinnati. In his first start against Cincinnati in 2019, Hendricks tossed 8 innings, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits, securing his 2 nd win within the NL Central for 2019.

Cubs hitters are a little less familiar with Sonny Gray, as he has spent the majority of his career in the AL with the A’s and Yankees, but eventually making the switch over to the NL Central in 2019. Gray got the Opening Day start against the Detroit Tigers on Friday, and was also able to record his first win of the 2020 season, allowing 1 earned run on just 3 hits while striking out 9. It may not have been quite as spectacular as Hendrick’s Opening Day start, but the Red’s ace is off to a very solid start to the year, and is typically pretty good against Chicago.

In five starts against Chicago last year, he posted a 3-1 record, allowing just 9 runs over 30 innings pitched. Because of the quick ramp up to this year’s MLB season, hitters are a step behind pitcher’s in their yearly progressions, which has been reflected in many teams run totals. For pitchers like Hendricks and Gray, hitters are 2 or 3 steps behind these guys. I like the Cubs to win this one, but not as much as I like the under. Bet on there to be a pitcher’s duel in Cincinnati today with the first 5 innings under in the Cubs vs reds game.

First 5 Innings
Prop Pick

Washington Nationals – To Lead After The First 5 Innings (-129)

Something has to give for the defending champs, right?

The Washington Nationals are having a miserable start to the 2020 MLB season, after dropping 2 of 3 to the Yankees, are now in danger of being swept by the Toronto Blue Jays, who don’t even have a home ball park to play in.

Lucky for the Nats, Max Scherzer will take the mound Wednesday night, who got banged around in his first start against the Yankees, but still didn’t look horrible. Scherzer threw 5 innings on Opening Day, allowing 4 earned runs while striking out 11. Scherzer’s ERA currently sits at 6.75 for the season, but it will get much better; mainly because of matchups like the one he has today against Toronto. Obviously, it hurts to lose a piece as big as Anthony Rendon from your starting lineup, but how bad does it ACTUALLY hurt? In the Nationals first 5 games so far this season, they have only scored over 2.5 runs once. That’s a stat that will burn your eyes as a Nats fan, and lucky for you, an unsustainable stat.

The Nationals hitters are much better than their run totals have shown so far this season, it is just a matter of time before they kick it into gear. Nobody is pressing the panic button on the Nationals yet, despite their lackluster 1-4 record, mainly because they are playing without their young star, Juan Soto and Stephen Strasburg is yet to take the hill for Washington… But if they drop a 3rd in a row tonight against Toronto, with Max Scherzer on the mound, I think it may be time to press that button already. I don’t believe Mad Max will allow that to happen tonight. Bank on Max Scherzer to shut down the Blue Jays tonight, and hopefully the Nats hitters will be able to scratch across a couple runs in the first 5 innings to secure that first 5 innings money line against Toronto tonight.

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