Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM
MLB Prop Picks and Predictions for Wednesday August 5
MLB Wednesday Prop Plays
- Mets vs. Nationals
- Red Sox vs. Rays
- Astros vs. Diamondbacks
Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook
T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in NJ, PA, IN, CO and WV
Player Prop Picks
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (6:05 p.m. ET)
Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-144)
National’s ace, Max Scherzer, will take the hill for the 3rd time this season on Wednesday evening, in what is set to be a lopsided pitching matchup between Rick Porcello and the New York Mets.
Porcello has been brutal to watch so far this year, posting a record of 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA over 2 starts. Scherzer, on the other hand, had a rough Opening Day start against the Yankees (6 H, 4 BB, 4 ER, 5.1 IP), but bounced back in his second start against Toronto, tossing 7 shutout innings and allowing just 3 hits.
What is the common denominator between the two starts? Mad Max strikes out a lot of hitters. In his losing start against the Yankees, he recorded 11 punchouts over 5 innings, which was more than the 10 he tallied in his dominant win over Toronto. Scherzer was second in the MLB in K/9 last season at 12.5, which only trailed Gerrit Cole (13.5). So far this season, only 5 teams have struck out more than the Mets; Pete Alonso and the crew being put away on strikes 9.75 times per game this year.
The 4-4 defending World Series champs have proven they are an unreliable betting option at this stage in the season, ranking 24th in runs per game (3.62), but their ace has shown us that he still has the ability to put away hitters on strikes, and do it at an efficient rate, which is why I am backing him to have at least 8 strikeouts against a Mets lineup that has been very susceptible to going down on strikes early in the season.
First 5 Innings Prop Pick
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays (6:40 p.m. ET)
Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 – First Five Innings Run Line (-106)
Rays 6’5” left-hander, Ryan Yarbrough will be eyeing his first win of the 2020 season Wednesday night against J.D. Martinez and the Boston Red Sox.
Yarbrough is 0-1 over his first 2 starts this year, but that is not because he has pitched poorly. Over 11.2 IP this season, he has allowed just 6 hits and 2 earned runs, posting an ERA of 1.54, and now gets a chance at a 3-8 Boston team averaging just 4.2 runs per game.
Martin Perez will make his 3rd start of the year for the Red Sox, who is 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA so far this season. Perez has given up 6 ER in just 10.2 innings in starts against the Mets and O’s, and now he will face the Rays lineup, which is much stronger than the previous 2 he faced. In his first start against Tampa Bay last season, Perez couldn’t make it out of the 3rd inning, allowing 6 runs on 6 hits.
Perez has made 4 starts in his career against the Rays, and has posted a 1-3 record with a 8.39 ERA in those starts. The Rays see this guy well, and I expect them to jump all over the Red Sox here, forcing it to the pen early, securing the first 5 innings run line, while the 28-year old left hander hauls in his first win of the season.
First 5 Innings Prop Pick
Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:10 p.m. ET)
Houston Astros Money Line – First Five Innings Money Line (-115)
The last pick on today’s slate comes from the Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks game, which contains a pitching matchup between 2 guys who haven’t really looked like themselves to open up the 2020 season.
Robbie Ray is coming off a 12-8 season in which he posted a 4.34 ERA over 33 starts. He is yet to complete the 5th inning of a game this year, having pitched just 8.1 innings, allowing 8 runs on 9 hits in his first 2 starts this season.
Lance McCullers took the mound for the first time in almost 2 years against the Mariners, and looked like he didn’t miss a beat in his first start, allowing 2 runs over 6 innings, tallying his first win of the 2020 season. In his second start though, he got a peek of what some quality hitters look like, as Anthony Rendon and the Angels were able to get to him, putting up 4 runs on him in 4 innings. Lucky for him, he faces a lineup similar to the one he faced against Seattle as Arizona is dead last in the league in runs per game (2.44), and averaged 1.33 runs in their last 3 games against the Dodgers. McCullers has been sharper than Ray in his first 2 starts, and the Houston hitters are astronomically better than Arizona’s.
Back the team that leads the league in runs per game in 2020 (HOU – 6 RPG), to jump out to an early lead against the team last in the league in runs per game (Arizona – 2.44 RPG) in a contest that Houston also owns a pitching edge in.