2024 NBA Playoffs Picks, Predictions, Odds
Our NBA Playoffs Picks are offering up the latest Picks, Predictions, Betting Market Analysis, Futures Prices, Series Odds updates and much more to keep you informed throughout the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
NBA Playoffs Picks
Along with Predictions on each of the NBA Series, our staff will be offering up NBA Playoffs Picks on each matchup throughout the postseason as well.
Friday, April 26
Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers
TV-Time: ESPN, 5:30 p.m. ET
Pick: Pacers -5.5 (-110)
Matchup: L.A. Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
TV-Time: ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET
Pick: Mavericks -4.5 (-110)
Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns
TV-Time: ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET
Pick: T-Wolves +4 (-110)
Saturday, April 27
Matchup: Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic
TV-Time: TNT, 1:00 p.m. ET
Pick: TBD
Matchup: OKC Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans
TV-Time: TNT, 3:30 p.m. ET
Pick: TBD
Matchup: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
TV-Time: TNT, 6:00 p.m. ET
Pick: TBD
Matchup: Denver Nuggets at L.A. Lakers
TV-Time: ABC, 8:30 p.m. ET
Pick: TBD
Sunday, April 28
Matchup: New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
TV-Time: ABC, 1:00 p.m. ET
Pick: TBD
Matchup: L.A. Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
TV-Time: ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET
Pick: TBD
Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers
TV-Time: TNT, 7:00 p.m. ET
Pick: TBD
Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns
TV-Time: TNT, 9:30 p.m. ET
Pick: TBD
NBA Playoffs Series Predictions
For the entire NBA Playoffs, Michael Crosson will be offering up his predictions on each of the series. You can check out his picks below along with his series outcome and betting analysis.
NBA First Round Picks
Eastern Conference
No. 7 76ers over No. 2 Knicks
No. 6 Pacers over No. 3 Bucks
No. 5 Magic over No. 4 Cavaliers
No. 1 Celtics over No. 8 Heat
Western Conference
No. 2 Nuggets over No. 7 Lakers
No. 5 Mavericks over No. 4 Clippers
No. 3 Timberwolves over No. 6 Suns
No. 1 Thunder over No. 8 Pelicans
Eastern Conference
Cavaliers vs. Magic
Series Pick: Magic (+156)
Series Prediction: Magic Win 4-3 (+800)
After getting bounced in five games by the Knicks in the first round of last year’s playoffs, the Cavaliers didn’t do much to quiet their critics throughout this season as they finished fourth in the East with a record of 48-34 – and similarly to their previous campaign, they were consistently hampered by their offense underperforming.
Last year, the Cavaliers finished fourth in the conference while ranking 1st in defensive rating and 9th in offensive rating. This year, however, it’s been the same story for Cleveland but slightly amplified this time around.
The Cavs finished the season ranked 18th in offensive rating and 9th in defensive rating – which became increasingly more worrisome late in the season as they closed their campaign with a miserable 9-14 skid, while ranking bottom-10 in the league in both offensive and defensive rating during that time frame.
While on the other side of that same coin, Orlando also strikes me as a team that’s a few years away from being a legitimate contender in the East. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean they are years away from competing with teams on Cleveland’s level in a first round series.
Similarly to Cleveland, the Magic struggle at the offensive end of the floor – ranked 24th in points scored per game and 24th in offensive rating. But fortunately, their defense is usually good enough to keep them afloat – ranked 4th in points allowed and 2nd in defensive rating on the season. And as of late, their offense has finally come around, highlighted by the Magic ranking 14th in offensive rating over the last month or so.
In a matchup between a pair of elite defensive teams that cannot be trusted at the offensive end of the floor, I believe offense will be the X-factor in this series – and at the moment, I trust this young Orlando team to make more shots when it matters most.
Bucks vs. Pacers
Series Pick: Pacers (+180)
Series Prediction: Pacers Win 4-3 (+1000)
This series ultimately comes down to the health status of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is listed as doubtful for Game 1 due to a calf injury that kept him sidelined for Milwaukee’s final three games of the regular season.
Hypothetically, if Giannis was at full strength, the Bucks would be much heavier favorites in this series. However, with the health status of the two-time MVP unclear for the foreseeable future, Milwaukee is listed as a relatively narrow -172 favorite to advance past Indiana in the first round.
Even if Giannis was in MVP-form though, there would still be plenty of reason for concern surrounding this Milwaukee team as we head into the playoffs.
The Bucks have posted a head-scratching record of 17-19 since hiring Doc Rivers as their head coach back in January – and there hasn’t been much to feel good about during that stretch, considering they rank 18th in offensive rating and 15th in defensive rating in their last 36 games.
In the grand scheme of things, I don’t particularly love the Pacers either. Indiana ranks 24th in the NBA in defensive rating, and that type of play is destined to catch up with them eventually.
However, there’s no denying the fact that the Pacers do one thing incredibly well – scoring – ranked 1st in points scored per game and 2nd in offensive rating on the season. And if Giannis is unable to shoulder the scoring load for the Bucks throughout this series, it could spell trouble for Milwaukee in Round 1.
Knicks vs. 76ers
Series Pick: 76ers (-112)
Series Prediction: 76ers Win 4-3 (+650)
It wasn’t pretty, but the 76ers managed to escape with a 1-point victory over the Heat in the first round of the Play-In Tournament on Wednesday night – so now they’ll face the second-seeded Knicks in the opening round of the playoffs, and the oddsmakers opened the series market with Philadelphia (-112) tagged as a narrow favorite over the 2-seed in the East, despite New York having homecourt advantage.
As ugly as their latest win over Miami was though, I still believe the oddsmakers have the right team favored in this series.
Joel Embiid was sidelined for 43 of 82 games for Philadelphia this season, and the Sixers went in the tank in the absence of the reigning MVP, as they posted a miserable record of 16-27 in those contests – and from January 25 through March 30, they were one of the worst teams in basketball, yielding a record of 10-22 while ranking 22nd in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating during that stretch.
With that in mind though, Embiid is back in the lineup for the Sixers, and he played pretty well in the closing days of the regular season, scoring 29+ points in four of his five outings since his return to action, and securing 11+ rebounds in three of them – and once Embiid was officially declared active, the Sixers immediately flipped a switch and won eight straight games to close the regular season, while ranking 2nd in the NBA in net rating during that span.
Which is pretty similar to the product we’ve seen from the current iteration of this team during the brief stints when Embiid has been healthy too, considering Philadelphia has posted a stellar record of 31-8 to go along with a net rating of +10.5 in 39 games with the reigning MVP, which would be the 2nd-best net rating in the entire league if that number persisted, only behind Boston (+11.7).
Take nothing away from what New York has accomplished. The Knicks had a great season, and they have nothing to hang their heads about regardless of the outcome of this series. New York earned the two-seed in the East with a record of 50-32, while ranking 7th in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating.
Unfortunately though, Philly isn’t your average seven-seed. This is a Sixers team that played like the best team in the conference when Embiid was in the lineup during the regular season – and if the reigning MVP manages to stay healthy, they just might have what it takes to finally make a run to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Celtics vs. Heat
Series Pick: Heat +2.5 Games (+360)
Series Prediction: Celtics Win 4-2 (+650)
Well, here they come…
The zombies crawling out of the grave…The bears awakening from hibernation…The Miami Heat are back in the Playoffs, and they punched their ticket to the postseason almost exactly the same way they did last year. So, it’s impossible to know what to expect from this team after yet another mediocre regular season campaign.
Last season, the Heat finished 7th in the East with a record of 44-38 , while ranking 25th in offensive rating and 9th in defensive rating (21st Net Rating), and they were nearly eliminated in the Play-In Tournament after losing to Atlanta in the 7-8 matchup and then rallying back to beat Chicago to claim the 8-seed. Sound familiar?
But as we all know, the Heat went onto represent the conference in the NBA Finals after knocking off Boston in the ECF. So can we really count out Miami after improving their record to 46-36 this season, while also seeing slight upticks (21st Offensive Rating, 5th Defensive Rating) at both ends of the floor?
Fortunately for Boston this time around, the X-factor in this series will be the absence of Jimmy Butler for Miami, and I just can’t see them winning four of seven games without him. But if Butler was healthy, the Heat might’ve been worth a sprinkle to win the series outright depending on the odds – and even in his absence, it would be naive to think Miami is going to roll over and quit at this time of the year.
Push comes to shove though, the Celtics have been the best team in the NBA by a considerable margin this season, and the personal stakes are very high for them in this series. So I highly doubt we will see them take Miami lightly. However, like many great teams, the Celtics are also prone to the occasional mental lapse and they beat themselves from time-to-time – and Erik Spoelstra is a mastermind at baiting teams into traps of that particular nature.
The Celtics jack up more 3-pointers than anybody in the league (42.5 3P Attempts Per Game), and when a team relies on the longball as heavily as Boston does, it usually welcomes a certain level of variance in their production. Although, the Celtics haven’t experienced much of that throughout this season.
Like I previously mentioned, I don’t necessarily think the Heat have the juice to win four of seven in this series. But, Miami to steal two games at +360? Sign me up. I’ll roll the dice and hope chaos ensues.
Western Conference
Clippers vs. Mavericks
Series Pick: Mavericks (-120)
Series Prediction: Mavericks Win 4-1 (+600)
Scoring is rarely an issue for Dallas with the superstar duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving at the helm, as the Mavericks earned the five-seed in the West with a record of 50-32 behind an offense that ranks top-10 in both offensive rating and points per game.
Defense has been a problem for Dallas though, highlighted by the Mavericks finishing the season ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 18th in defensive rating.
However, in the final month or so of the regular season, it seems like Dallas finally found a spark at the defensive end, and the result has been immaculate, highlighted by the Mavs closing their campaign with a stellar 16-4 run, which can mainly be attributed to their defense leading the entire NBA in defensive rating during that time frame.
Contrarily, very few teams have experienced highs-and-lows to the extent that the Clippers have this season. At various points, the Clips have looked like top shelf contenders in the West – most notably, when they went on a 12-2 run spanning January and February, while leading the entire NBA in offensive rating by a comfortable margin during that span.
With that said though, the Clippers still ranked 18th in defensive rating during their best stretch of the year, which is on-par with the fact that they rank 17th on the season – and their defense only got worse down the homestretch, considering they rank 23rd in defensive rating since February 6.
Even if the Clippers manage to flip a switch and return to peak form in the playoffs, I still expect them to come up well short against a Mavericks team that is fully capable of matching their best effort at both ends of the floor – and if LAC doesn’t bring it’s A-game (which we haven’t seen in a while), Dallas may send them packing early in this series.
Timberwolves vs. Suns
Series Pick: Timberwolves (-102)
Series Prediction: Timberwolves Win 4-2 (+650)
The Timberwolves finished third in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26 this season – and nearly earned the one-seed, as they finished just one game behind Denver and Oklahoma City in a three-horse race to the finish line down the stretch.
However, despite their overwhelming regular season success, the oddsmakers at FanDuel still see the T-Wolves as short underdogs (-102) in the first round of the playoffs against the sixth-seeded Suns.
There’s no denying the fact that Phoenix can score with the best-of-the-best in the league. The Suns finished the season ranked top-10 in both offensive rating and points per game – which is pretty impressive, considering they went significant chunks of the season without Bradley Beal and Devin Booker.
With that said though, the series price for this matchup is incredibly disrespectful to what the T-Wolves have accomplished this season – especially with Karl-Anthony Towns returning for the final two games of the regular season.
The T-Wolves rank third in the NBA in net rating, only behind Boston and OKC, sporting the best defensive rating in the entire league behind Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner, Rudy Gobert – and they have bona fide superstar capable of going toe-to-toe in a slugfest with anybody in Anthony Edwards.
Sure, the Suns are capable of beating anybody on any given night. But push comes to shove, I worry about the chemistry of their lineup. Phoenix’s big-3 hasn’t played many games together, and ultimately, I believe the T-Wolves’ size and physicality will be too much for the Suns to overcome before this series gets back to Minnesota for Game 7.
Nuggets vs. Lakers
Series Pick: Nuggets -1.5 Games (-168)
Series Prediction: Nuggets Win 4-2 (+460)
The Lakers are thoroughly outmatched against the defending champs in this first round series, and it would take a total implosion by the Nuggets for LAL to advance to the Western Conference Semis. With that in mind, however, I believe this series may be extended a little bit further than the previous postseason meeting between these teams in which the Nuggets swept the Lakers in four games in last year’s Western Conference Finals.
The Lakers and Nuggets met three times during the regular season, and Denver won all three of those contests, with two of those victories coming on the road. So the Lakers haven’t given us much reason to believe they have a better shot this time around.
But the Nuggets are no strangers to playing with their food early in the playoffs. And as dominant as their run through the WCF and Finals was – winning both series in a total of nine games – Denver actually struggled a little bit out of the gate last postseason.
The Nuggets lost one game to Minnesota in the opening round last year, and barely escaped with a victory in Game 5 with a final score of 112-109. Then they lost two road games to Phoenix in the second round before catching fire and winning 10-of-11 games the rest of the way to win the title.
I don’t see much value in backing the Nuggets to win this series 4-1 at +250, with options available at nearly double the price on both sides of that number – with 4-0 at +490 and 4-2 at +460. So if I had to lean one way or another, I would lean toward the Lakers stealing a pair of road games as opposed to the Nuggets sweeping LAL for the second straight year.
The Nuggets finished 2nd in the West with a record of 57-25 this season. However, most of those losses came on the road, with Denver owning records of 33-8 at home and 24-17 on the road – which is nothing new for a team that went 34-7 at home and 19-22 last season.
With that said, I would be very surprised to see the Nuggets bounce LAL in four games again. However, it would be even more surprising if the Lakers somehow manage to win this series.
Thunder vs Pelicans
Series Pick: Thunder -2.5 Games (-110)
Series Prediction: Thunder Win 4-0 (+330)
After losing to the Lakers in the first round of the Play-In Tournament (and losing Zion WIlliamson to a hamstring strain in the process), the Pelicans managed to bounce back and fend off elimination in Round 2 of the Play-In with a 105-98 victory over Sacramento. So now, they earn the eight-seed and limp into the opening round of the playoffs to face the top-seeded Thunder.
On paper, the Pelicans could present an interesting matchup for the Thunder if New Orleans was at full strength. Very few teams are balanced enough at both ends of the floor to run up-and-down the court for a full series with this young OKC team that ranks top-4 in both offensive and defensive rating.
However, the Pelicans might have been able to match their style to a certain extent if they were healthy, as New Orleans finished the season ranked 11th in offensive rating and 7th in defensive rating (6th - Net Rating) – and occasionally, all the pieces would fall into place for the Pels on offense and they would look like one of the best teams in the West for a brief moment.
New Orleans walks a fine line with its offensive production though. Remove one of Zion Williamson or Brandon Ingram from the equation, and the Pelicans tend to crumble like pulling the wrong block from a Jenga tower. Which is exactly what happened in the waning days of the regular season, as Ingram missed 12 of their last 13 games and they closed their campaign with a bumpy 7-6 stretch (15th Net Rating).
Ingram is back in the lineup, but isn’t quite back to 100% healthy – and heading into the series, it’s been reported that Zion will be re-evaluated in approximately two weeks.
It’s a shame that we won’t get to see this matchup at full strength, but with Zion absent and Ingram less than 100%, I don’t see New Orleans competing in this series.
NBA Playoffs Betting Trends
The NBA Finals Odds are coming more into focus with the conclusion of the regular season and VegasInsider Senior Reporter Patrick Everson is on the hardwood with all the market moves from Las Vegas.
Here's everything you need to know about 2023-24 NBA Finals odds: action, movement and betting trends. Check back regularly for updates, and use our BetMGM bonus code to get more when you wager.
2024 NBA Finals Odds, Betting Trends
NBA Playoffs Series Odds & Results
Our NBA Playoffs Series Odds will be updated throughout the playoffs after every result from our NBA Scoreboard, but not before showing the Opening Series Odds for each matchup.
First Round Matchups
Listed below are the opening series odds for the first round matchups of the NBA Playoffs for both the Eastern and Western Conference.
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Boston (-8000) vs. No. 8 Miami (+1800)
No. 2 New York (-108) vs. No.7 Philadelphia (-120)
No. 3 Milwaukee (-225) vs. No. 6 Indiana (+180)
No. 4 Cleveland (-194) vs. No. 5 Orlando (+156)
Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City (-650) vs. No. 8 New Orleans (+440)
No. 2 Denver (-400) vs. No. 7 L.A. Lakers (+315)
No. 3 Minnesota (-102) vs. No. 6 Phoenix (-120)
No. 4 L.A. Clippers (-102) vs. No. 5 Dallas
Play-In Game Results
No. 8 Miami 112 No. 9 Chicago 91
No. 7 New Orleans 105 No. 9 Sacramento 98
No. 8 L.A. Lakers 110 No. 7 New Orleans 106
No. 9 Sacramento 118 No. 10 Golden State 94
No. 7 Philadelphia 105 No. 8 Miami 104
No. 9 Chicago 131 No. 10 Atlanta 116
Odds to win 2024 NBA Finals
Listed below are the opening odds to win the 2024 NBA Finals prior to the star of the NBA Playoffs, which began on Saturday April 20, 2024.
- Boston Celtics +160
- Denver Nuggets +300
- Dallas Mavericks +1100
- Los Angeles Clippers +1200
- Oklahoma City Thunder +1200
- Milwaukee Bucks +1400
- Philadelphia 76ers +1400
- Minnesota Timberwolves +1800
- Phoenix Suns +1800
- Los Angeles Lakers +2500
- New York Knicks +3000
- Cleveland Cavaliers +5000
- New Orleans Pelicans +6000
- Indiana Pacers +6000
- Miami Heat +10000
- Orlando Magic +15000
Odds to win 2024 NBA Eastern Conference
Listed below are the opening odds to win the 2024 NBA Eastern Conference prior to the star of the NBA Playoffs, which began on Saturday April 20, 2024.
(Seed)
- (1) Boston Celtics -250
- (3) Milwaukee Bucks +900
- (7) Philadelphia 76ers +700
- (2) New York Knicks +1100
- (4) Cleveland Cavaliers +1800
- (6) Indiana Pacers +2500
- (8) Miami Heat +5000
- (5) Orlando Magic +5000
Eastern Conference Odds Comparison
Odds to win 2024 NBA Western Conference
Listed below are the opening odds to win the 2024 NBA Western Conference prior to the star of the NBA Playoffs, which began on Saturday April 20, 2024.
(Seed)
- (3) Denver Nuggets +130
- (5) Dallas Mavericks +600
- (4) Los Angeles Clippers +650
- (1) Oklahoma City Thunder +650
- (2) Minnesota Timberwolves +900
- (6) Phoenix Suns +900
- (7) Los Angeles Lakers +1200
- (8) New Orleans Pelicans +3000
Western Conference Odds Comparison
NBA Betting History
NBA Finals Betting History
The NBA Finals is the pro basketball championship of the National Basketball Association. The game pits the winner of the two conferences, Eastern and Western. The NBA Finals starts in June as two teams square off in a best-of-seven series.
NBA Champions
Last 5 Years
2023: Denver Nuggets
2022: Golden State Warriors
2021: Milwaukee Bucks
2020: L.A. Lakers
2019: Toronto Raptors
NBA Eastern Conference Betting History
The Eastern Conference Finals is one of two pro basketball conference series of the National Basketball Association. The winner of this best-of-seven series matchup will advance to The NBA Finals.
NBA Eastern Conference Champions
Last 5 Years
2023: Miami Heat
2022: Boston Celtics
2021: Milwaukee Bucks
2020: Miami Heat
2019: Toronto Raptors
NBA Eastern Conference Finals History
NBA Western Conference Betting History
The Western Conference Finals is one of two pro basketball conference series of the National Basketball Association. The winner of this best-of-seven series matchup will advance to The NBA Finals.
NBA Western Conference Champions
Last 5 Years
2023: Denver Nuggets
2022: Golden State Warriors
2021: Phoenix Suns
2020: L.A. Lakers
2019: Golden State Warriors
NBA Western Conference Finals History
NBA PLAYOFFS Matchups
The NBA Matchups are an essential betting tool for the novice or professional, and it has so many features to follow. The NBA regular season spans six months, and it’s rare to see the league take a day off, so analyzing the matchups and betting trends is vital.
The NBA Matchups lists all the NBA in order of Rotation, which is controlled the sportsbooks. Every matchup has a designated Home and Away team, and both are given a rotation number. The games are show the Time as well, which is Eastern Standard Time Zone (ET) on this matchup page.
NBA BETTING TRENDS
As you can see in the chart above, all the NBA Betting Trends from sportsbooks and what users are playing are available.
The Betting Trend Section receives percentages on three categories.
- Spread (Point-Spread Bets)
- Total (Total Bets)
- ML (Moneyline Bets)
The three NBA betting trends are fairly simple to follow, and they’re more volatile as tip-off approaches.
The Spread percentage is for the point-spread, while the ML is for money-line wagers, and that field usually skews heavily to favorites since not many bettors expect huge upsets, especially when the point-spread is high. The Total is the Over/Under, and the Over is always listed on top of the Under. Most bettors lean to favorites and overs.
Keep in mind that it’s not uncommon to see 100% to 0% listed for a particular matchup, especially after the betting line is just made available. These trends fluctuate based on the action and until the volume rises, that’s a common occurrence.
NBA PLAYOFFS SCOREBOARD
The NBA Scoreboard not only provides the scores for the NBA Playoffs, but so much more.
The key feature is the Betting Odds and the NBA Scores provides a consensus line that is created by multiple sportsbooks in the United States. The Betting Odds display which team is the favorite in the matchup and that can be determined with a minus (-) sign followed by a number.
Also, the NBA Scores section features Betting Trends for each matchup and this shows you how much money is being wagered on each team. It’s a great tool if you want to ride or against the betting public. Another great resource is the Line Movements because knowing how a sportsbook adjusts to the action.
If you are in a state where sports betting is legal, please check out our online sportsbook directory to find the best and most secure places to make bets on today's NBA games.
NBA PLAYOFF FORMAT
"THE FIRST TO WIN 16"
After the field of 16 is determined, the first team to win four best-of-seven series will be deemed the NBA Champion.
In each of the best-of-seven series, the team with the higher seed will have home-court advantage and they will host the first two games.
The lower seed will then host the next two games and the remaining three games, if necessary, will be alternated with the higher seed hosting Game 5 and 7 while the lower seed hosts Game 6.
In simple terms, the NBA Playoffs Format for a best-of-seven can be viewed as 2-2-1-1-1.
NBA PLAYOFF BETTING TYPES
- Money-line: This is an easy one. Simply pick which team will win outright. Say the Lakers are up against Clippers in a series matchup – pick one team over the other to bring home the win. New bettors especially bet on the money-line as it's the simplest way to bet on a game.
- Point-Spread: Like money-line, here you choose a team to win or lose outright. However, the difference lies in guessing how much they win/lose by. This number is a specific points total set by the sportsbooks. Our advice? Check out the team’s average points per game over the season.
- Totals: Also called over/under, this bet determines whether the final score will – combined – will be over or under what the sportsbook thinks.
- Props: This betting market continues to rise in popularity and betting on both specific player and team statistics will increase your viewing pleaure.
- Live Betting: Forgot to put your bet in? No problem, just pull up the latest Live Betting markets or what many also call In-Game Wagering. These wagers can allow you to press, chase or even get out of wagers that you don't want any part of. The options are limitless and the action is Live!
- Futures: Feeling the itch to bet already? Futures can be placed weeks or sometimes months ahead of the game. For example, maybe you think the Boston Celtics will bring it home this year in your NBA Playoffs Picks. Place a bet now ahead of the postseason to get in on the ground floor. Just pay attention as the odds can change, and your choice can even be knocked out!
- Parlays: Called accumulator bets in the UK, parlays are a series of bets. The NBA Playoffs is the perfect time for parlays, where you can lay down a small bet of say $10 across five games. Win all five and you could be looking at a hefty return with your NBA Playoff Picks.
BETTING ON THE NBA
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