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Last Updated Apr 17, 2022, 17:04 PM

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Picks, Odds

First Round NBA Playoff action will resume on Sunday afternoon with a Southeast Division showdown between the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from FTX Arena in Miami at 1:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

Score Prediction

Heat 108, Hawks 102

Best Bets

Under 217.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Predictions

After falling to Milwaukee in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Atlanta stumbled out to a surprisingly poor start to this season, as the Hawks opened with a frustrating 16-25 SU and 14-27 ATS skid – despite getting tagged as favorites in 25 of those matchups.

Atlanta has played solid, yet inconsistent basketball since mid-January though, considering the Hawks enter their first-round matchup riding a sturdy 29-14 SU and 25-19 ATS run – while yielding lofty averages of 116.5 OPPG and 112.8 DPPG across that window.

On the other hand, Miami posted a triumphant start to the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch – with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), the Heat carried that same momentum all the way to the finish line, considering Miami closed the season with an impressive 39-18 SU and 32-24-1 ATS run – while ranking fifth in the league in defensive efficiency and tenth in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.102 OE, 1.057 DE).

I’ll take the under here, as the Heat enter the postseason riding a bumpy 8-6 SU and 6-8 ATS skid, while tallying 112.5 OPPG and allowing just 109.7 DPPG during that span – setting the stage for a competitive low-scoring battle against a Hawks squad that surrendered 102 DPPG across their two matchups in the Play-In Tournament.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

Atlanta Hawks Betting Analysis

  • SU: 43-39
  • ATS: 37-45
  • O/U: 43-38-1

The Hawks were inevitably cursed with lofty expectations after last year’s impressive Eastern Conference Finals run; however, Atlanta struggled miserably out of the gate, as Atlanta dropped 26-of-41 matchups to start the season, despite getting tagged as underdogs in just 15 of those contests.

Atlanta has been on quite the rollercoaster since January though, considering the Hawks enter the postseason riding a sturdy 29-14 SU and 25-19 ATS stretch, despite ranking 21st in the league in points allowed and 26thin defensive efficiency on the year (112.3 DPPG, 1.113 DE).

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 53-29
  • ATS: 46-36
  • O/U: 48-32-2

After last year’s underwhelming 40-32 SU showing, Miami made some bold offseason acquisitions in order to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

The transition was seamless at first, as the Heat kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with Miami’s only ATS losses across that span coming in tough matchups against the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, and Celtics.

However, the depth that Miami sacrificed to acquire Lowry was briefly exposed in December, considering a revolving door of health issues briefly spiraled Miami into a worrisome 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid. Depth wasn’t much of a problem down the homestretch though, considering Miami closed out the regular season with a solid 39-18 SU, 32-24-1 ATS stretch.

The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. (Getty Images)

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

The Hawks won two of three regular-season matchups against Miami last year, with the first two contests staying well under the total at an average of 191 PPG, while the third cruised over with a score of 118-103 (O 212). However, Miami went 3-1 SU against Atlanta this season, with two of those matchups soaring over the total at an average of 230 PPG – while the other two stayed under at an average of 214 PPG.

Key Players to Watch

  • ATL: Trae Young - PG (28.4 PPG, 3.7 REB, 9.7 AST)
  • ATL: Clint Capela - C (11.1 PPG, 11.9 REB, 1.3 BLK)
  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (19.1 PPG, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST)

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

After posting a tough road win over Cleveland in Friday’s Play-In Tournament finale (W, 107-101), the Hawks hit the road again for Sunday’s series opener as relatively steep underdogs against the Heat at FTX Arena – marking the fourth time Atlanta has been an underdog across their last eight games.

I’ll take the under here, as the Hawks are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games, while surrendering just 111.3 DPPG to their opponents during that span – setting the stage for a relatively low-scoring battle against a Heat squad that’s scored 106 PTS or less in seven of their last 14 contests (109.7 DPPG).

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

  • The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the last five Heat' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last seven Hawks' games.
  • The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last seven matchups between Atlanta and Miami.
  • The Heat are 6-4 ATS in their last ten matchups against Atlanta.
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