Maine Senate Election Odds: Troy Jackson 73% Favorite on Polymarket and Kalshi
Maine Senate election odds have swung toward Democrat Troy Jackson heading into Tuesday's vote, and anyone tracking Maine election odds, Maine Senate Vegas odds or the odds to win Maine Senate will find Jackson priced at 73% on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
Republican Susan Collins, the only GOP senator seeking reelection in a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024, sits at 28% on Polymarket and 27% on Kalshi as she chases a sixth term.
Here's where the action sits on both exchanges ahead of polls closing at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Troy Jackson | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Susan Collins | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Troy Jackson | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Susan Collins | YES (27¢) | $370.37 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
A full breakdown of the current Maine Senate election odds on both exchanges follows below, but if you'd rather jump straight to the offers, grab the latest Polymarket promo code or Kalshi promo code.
New Polymarket users can lock in the promo code
Updated on 11/2/26
Odds to Win Maine Senate on Polymarket: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket prices every contract between 1¢ and 99¢, which maps directly onto implied probability; a "Yes" share pays $1.00 if the outcome hits and nothing if it doesn't, and positions can be traded before the race is called.
The odds to win Maine Senate on this board settle on the winner of the November 3 election, with Polymarket listing results as expected after polls close at 8 p.m. ET and tagging the race "Lean D."
One methodology note: Polymarket posts only a Yes price for each candidate here, so the No prices below are backed into by pairing each candidate with the opponent's quoted Yes, since one side winning means the other loses. The two Yes prices total 101¢ after rounding, and any minor candidates on the ballot would make the derived No an approximation.
Troy Jackson (YES 73¢ / NO 28¢)
Jackson's 73¢ price is the headline of the Maine Senate election odds this week, up from the 60% Newsweek reported for him on Polymarket in mid-October as the final round of public polling broke his way.
The closing New York Times/Siena survey, fielded October 27 to November 1, has him ahead 51-45, while YouGov put him up 52-47 among 1,503 likely voters from October 26 to 29 and a University of New Hampshire poll taken October 27 to 31 showed a 54-45 edge.
RealClearPolitics' average gives Jackson a 3.3-point cushion, 49.9 to 46.6, and Barack Obama's endorsement and a Bernie Sanders campaign stop in mid-October added late momentum.
Susan Collins (YES 28¢ / NO 73¢)
Collins' 28¢ price is the incumbent's side of the odds to win Maine Senate, and the market is clearly respecting her history: in 2020 she trailed Democrat Sara Gideon in most polls and still won reelection.
A Suffolk University survey from October 8 to 11 found her ahead 47-44 among independents even as Jackson led 49-47 overall, and Marist's October 22-25 poll, with a wide 6.6-point margin of error, had Jackson up only 49-47.
Updated on 11/2/26
Maine Senate Vegas Odds: Kalshi Contracts for Jackson and Collins
Kalshi runs the race as a regulated event contract that resolves by winning party, with each Yes share paying $1.00 if the outcome hits and nothing if it doesn't. Its market page is dated November 3 and carries a D +3.4 margin forecast.
Traders searching for Maine Senate Vegas odds on a regulated exchange will find Kalshi in lockstep with Polymarket on the favorite.
Troy Jackson (YES 73¢)
Kalshi's Jackson price matches Polymarket's, and its D +3.4 margin forecast lands almost exactly on the 3.3-point RealClearPolitics polling lead, which suggests traders are leaning on the polling consensus.
They haven't always been this confident: Newsweek reported Jackson at 57% on Kalshi on October 15, down from 66% a month earlier, so the move back up to 73¢ reflects how much the late polls helped him.
Susan Collins (YES 27¢)
Collins sits one cent below her Polymarket price, and the trend in the polling explains why she is still the underdog. The New York Times/Siena poll that now has her trailing 51-45 is the same survey that showed her ahead 49-46 when it was fielded September 15 to 22.
A Trafalgar poll gave her a fractional lead, and her personal brand in Maine is the main reason the market has not pushed her lower.
You can sign up at Kalshi with the promo code
Updated on 11/2/26
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on Maine Election Odds
The two boards are nearly mirror images. Jackson is YES 73¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Collins is YES 28¢ on Polymarket and YES 27¢ on Kalshi, a one-cent gap that sits inside the rounding on a board whose two sides total 101¢.
The difference is in how the prices are built. Polymarket's NO 28¢ on Jackson and NO 73¢ on Collins are derived from the opponent's Yes quote, while the Kalshi page as captured shows a single price per candidate plus the D +3.4 margin forecast that Polymarket does not display.
In practice, the Maine election odds and the Maine Senate Vegas odds carried on each exchange tell the same story: Jackson is a roughly three-in-four favorite, and neither board is pricing Collins out.
Maine Senate Election Odds Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The shape of this board is a clear favorite rather than a runaway one. Jackson at 73¢ implies roughly a three-in-four chance, which leaves Collins a meaningful one-in-four, and the Maine election odds are far tighter than the lopsided boards in other Senate races.
The biggest price driver has been the final polling wave. Newsweek had Jackson at 57% on Kalshi and 60% on Polymarket on October 15, and the arrival of the Times/Siena, YouGov and UNH surveys, all showing him ahead by five points or more, helped push both exchanges to 73%. Early voting in Maine also ran sharply ahead of the 2022 pace, though party registration does not guarantee how ballots were cast.
The tension is between polls and the market. A 3.3-point polling average is a modest lead, and handicappers including Cook Political Report have treated the race as a toss-up, so a 73% price asks traders to believe the 2020-style miss that favored Collins does not repeat.
Several things could reprice the board once polls close at 8 p.m. ET: Election Day turnout from Republican-leaning northern and eastern Maine, how early Democratic ballots break, and Maine's ranked-choice voting rules, which matter only if no candidate clears a majority.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Troy Jackson | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Susan Collins | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Troy Jackson | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Susan Collins | YES (27¢) | $370.37 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Maine Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to get in on the action? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Updated on 11/2/26
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Updated on 11/2/26
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Final Thoughts on Maine Election Odds
The Maine election odds describe a Democratic-leaning contest with a stubborn incumbent. Both exchanges have Jackson at 73¢ and Collins at 27¢ or 28¢, and the final polls give that lean real support.
The odds to win Maine Senate hinge on one variable: whether Collins, who has outrun the polls before, does it again on Tuesday night.
FAQs: Maine Senate Election Odds and Prediction Markets
What are the Maine Senate election odds right now?
Troy Jackson is priced at 73¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, an implied 73% chance of winning. Susan Collins is at 28¢ on Polymarket and 27¢ on Kalshi, so the Maine Senate election odds favor the Democrat by roughly three to one.
Who is favored to win the Maine Senate race?
Jackson, the Democratic nominee and former Maine Senate president, is the favorite on both exchanges. Polymarket also tags the race "Lean D."
How do the Maine election odds differ between Polymarket and Kalshi?
The Maine election odds barely differ. Jackson is 73¢ on both, and Collins is 28¢ on Polymarket versus 27¢ on Kalshi. Polymarket's No prices are derived from the opponent's Yes quote, and Kalshi's page adds a D +3.4 margin forecast.
Where can I find Maine Senate Vegas odds?
Maine Senate Vegas odds for this race are covered here through live Polymarket and Kalshi event contracts, each priced between 1¢ and 99¢ with a Yes share paying $1.00 if the outcome hits.
What are the odds to win Maine Senate for Susan Collins?
Collins trades at 28¢ on Polymarket and 27¢ on Kalshi, an implied chance of roughly 27% to 28%. Her price reflects a deficit in the final polls offset by her record of outrunning surveys in 2020.
What do the latest Maine Senate polls show?
The final New York Times/Siena poll has Jackson ahead 51-45, YouGov has him up 52-47, and UNH has him up 54-45. Marist's October 22-25 survey was closer at 49-47, and RealClearPolitics averages Jackson +3.3.
How do the polls compare to the market prices?
A 3.3-point polling average is modest, and Cook Political Report has treated the race as a toss-up, so a 73% market price is more confident than the polls alone suggest. Collins outran her polls in 2020.
What could change the odds before results come in?
Election Day turnout, how early ballots break, and Maine's ranked-choice voting rules could all move prices once polls close at 8 p.m. ET on November 3.
How do I trade the Maine Senate race on prediction markets?
Open the Maine Senate market on Polymarket or Kalshi and choose Yes or No on the candidate you want. Contracts can be bought and sold before the race is called.
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