Texas Governor Odds: Polymarket and Kalshi Price Abbott vs Hinojosa
Texas governor odds and Texas gubernatorial odds have tightened sharply heading into Election Day, and the Texas governor Vegas odds on prediction markets now frame who will win the Texas governor race as a lean toward Greg Abbott rather than a lock.
Republican incumbent Greg Abbott is chasing a record fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, and both Polymarket and Kalshi run live winner markets that settle on Tuesday's results.
Here's where the action sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Greg Abbott | YES (61¢) | $163.93 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Gina Hinojosa | YES (40¢) | $250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Greg Abbott | YES (60¢) | $166.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Gina Hinojosa | YES (40¢) | $250.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
A full breakdown of the current Texas governor odds on both exchanges follows below, but if you'd rather jump straight to the offers, grab the latest Polymarket promo code or Kalshi promo code.
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Updated on 11/2/26
Texas Governor Odds on Polymarket: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket prices every contract between 1¢ and 99¢, which maps directly onto implied probability, and a "Yes" share pays out $1.00 if the outcome hits and nothing if it doesn't. Positions can be bought or sold at any point before the market resolves, which makes the board a live read on who will win the Texas governor race.
The Polymarket board is titled Texas Governor Election Winner, carries a Lean R label and lists results as expected at 8PM on Tuesday, November 3.
One methodology note: Polymarket posts only a Yes price for each candidate on this board, so the No prices below are backed into by pairing each candidate with their rival's quoted Yes, since one side winning means the other loses. A Libertarian candidate is also on the Texas ballot, so treat each derived No as an approximation.
Greg Abbott (YES 61¢ / NO 40¢)
Abbott trades at 61¢, an implied 61% chance, and the Polymarket chart shows him sliding from near-certainty at the start of its window to a price that would have looked unthinkable for a governor who won each of his three previous races by double digits.
The most recent Texas Public Opinion Research survey, a key input for the Texas governor odds, taken Oct. 15 to 18 among 969 likely voters, had him up 51-48, with his lead shrinking from seven points in August to four in September. TPOR calls itself nonpartisan but is run by a Democrat, so the poll is best read with that context.
Rice University political scientist Mark Jones has put Abbott's polling cushion at roughly 2 to 5 points, a range that fits a price near 60¢ better than the tied surveys do.
Gina Hinojosa (YES 40¢ / NO 61¢)
Hinojosa's 40¢ price is the product of a steady climb from the low 20s, and it prices her as a real contender in a state where no Democrat has won statewide in more than three decades.
A YouGov survey of 3,625 registered voters, conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 5, had her ahead 48-47, and an N+Univision poll from late August and early September had the pair tied at 47 apiece. Hinojosa has led among Latino voters, independents and younger voters in several of those surveys.
Updated on 11/2/26
Texas Gubernatorial Odds on Kalshi: Abbott vs Hinojosa
Kalshi lists the race as a regulated event contract titled Texas Governor winner? that resolves by winning party, so a Yes on Abbott pays $1.00 if the Republican wins and nothing if he doesn't. Contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, and the board has drawn $15,129,428 in volume, making it a deep pool for Texas gubernatorial odds.
Kalshi also shows its own margin forecast for November 3 at R +1.8, a thinner cushion than the 2 to 5 points Jones has cited and one that lines up with a price around 60¢ in the Texas governor Vegas odds.
Greg Abbott (YES 60¢)
Abbott sat near 90% for much of 2025 and held in the 80s into the spring, so the drop to 60¢ has come mostly over the past several months and sharply in the final stretch.
He still holds the structural edge, with $18.2 million cash on hand to Hinojosa's $4 million at the close of the reporting period ending Sept. 24, according to the Texas Tribune.
Gina Hinojosa (YES 40¢)
Hinojosa spent most of the past year in single digits and low teens on Kalshi before climbing to 40¢, the same price Polymarket shows, which says the repricing is a market-wide view and not a one-platform quirk, and it answers who will win the Texas governor race with far more doubt than a year ago.
Her campaign has centered on public school funding, affordability and accountability, and she publicly pushed for a debate that Abbott did not take part in.
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Updated on 11/2/26
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Texas Governor Vegas Odds
The two boards are nearly identical. Abbott sits at YES 61¢ on Polymarket against YES 60¢ on Kalshi, while Hinojosa is priced at YES 40¢ on both, a one-cent gap on the favorite and none on the underdog.
The only visible difference is how the prices are built. Polymarket's derived numbers put Abbott at NO 40¢ and Hinojosa at NO 61¢, and its two Yes prices add up to 101¢, while Kalshi's Yes prices add up to exactly 100¢. That one-cent spread is the kind of gap that comes from separate order books, not a disagreement about who is ahead.
Both platforms agree on the bigger picture for Texas gubernatorial odds: a Republican lean with roughly a 40% chance priced in for the Democrat. Anyone comparing Texas governor Vegas odds across venues will find the story is consensus, not divergence.
Who Will Win the Texas Governor Race? Market Price Influencers
The biggest story on both boards is the slide itself. Abbott spent most of 2025 priced near 90%, and Hinojosa spent it well under 25%, so the move to 61¢ and 40¢ in the Texas governor odds reflects a race that changed over months, not a single poll.
Polling explains most of it. Abbott's TPOR lead narrowed from seven points in August to three in October, YouGov had Hinojosa up one, and N+Univision had a tie, while Jones still sees an Abbott edge of 2 to 5 points. The market is splitting the difference, which is why the Texas gubernatorial odds sit near three-in-five instead of the lopsided prices of a year ago.
Money and history pull the other way. Abbott's cash advantage and the fact that no Democrat has won statewide in Texas in more than three decades keep a ceiling on Hinojosa's price, even as leaked audio of Ken Paxton telling donors that Abbott was struggling added to the sense that the race is tighter than anyone expected.
Turnout is the swing variable. Jones estimated that 60% to 75% of ballots would be cast during early voting, which ended Oct. 30, and he has said Abbott's main task is getting Republicans to the polls. Abbott himself has acknowledged very high turnout in Democratic precincts while urging his own voters out.
So the market's answer to who will win the Texas governor race is still Abbott, but at roughly three-in-five odds. Election night returns, expected around 8PM on Tuesday per Polymarket's board, are the only thing left that can reprice either side.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Greg Abbott | YES (61¢) | $163.93 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Gina Hinojosa | YES (40¢) | $250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Greg Abbott | YES (60¢) | $166.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Gina Hinojosa | YES (40¢) | $250.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Texas Governor Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to get in on the action? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Updated on 11/2/26
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Updated on 11/2/26
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Texas Gubernatorial Odds: Final Thoughts
Anyone asking who will win the Texas governor race is looking at a market with a clear favorite and a conspicuously live underdog: Abbott at 61¢ on Polymarket and 60¢ on Kalshi, Hinojosa at 40¢ on both, and a polling picture that ranges from a three-point Abbott lead to a one-point Hinojosa edge.
Both exchanges land within a cent of each other on the Texas governor Vegas odds, so the one variable to watch is turnout. If Republican voters show up as the campaign needs them to, the Texas governor odds tilt Abbott's way; if the surge in Democratic participation holds, 40¢ may prove too low in the Texas gubernatorial odds.
Texas Governor Odds FAQs
What are the current Texas governor odds?
Greg Abbott is trading at 61¢ on Polymarket and 60¢ on Kalshi, an implied 60% to 61% chance, while Gina Hinojosa sits at 40¢ on both exchanges.
Who will win the Texas governor race?
Prediction markets favor Abbott, but not overwhelmingly. A price of 60¢ to 61¢ implies roughly a three-in-five chance, which leaves a meaningful 40% for Hinojosa. Results are expected after polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
What are the Texas governor Vegas odds?
Prediction markets are where Vegas-style odds on political races now live. Abbott is priced at 61¢ on Polymarket and 60¢ on Kalshi, and Hinojosa at 40¢ on both, with each cent equal to one percentage point of implied probability.
What do the latest polls show in the Texas governor race?
Results vary by pollster. Texas Public Opinion Research had Abbott up 51-48 on Oct. 15 to 18, YouGov had Hinojosa ahead 48-47 from Sept. 28 to Oct. 5, and N+Univision found the two tied at 47 in early September. TPOR describes itself as nonpartisan but is run by a Democrat.
How do the Texas gubernatorial odds differ between Polymarket and Kalshi?
They barely differ. Abbott is 61¢ on Polymarket and 60¢ on Kalshi, and Hinojosa is 40¢ on both. Polymarket's No prices are derived from the rival candidate's Yes price, so they are an approximation.
What could change the Texas governor odds before results come in?
Turnout is the biggest swing factor. Early voting ended Oct. 30 after an estimated 60% to 75% of Texas ballots were expected to be cast early, so Election Day turnout and returns after 8PM are the next catalysts for the market.
Why has Abbott's price fallen so far?
Both charts show Abbott near 90% through much of 2025 before sliding to about 60%. Tighter polling, a surge in Democratic enthusiasm and Hinojosa's fundraising growth have all fed the move, though Abbott still leads in cash on hand.
How do I trade the Texas governor race?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before it settles.
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