MLB Home Run Props and Best Bets for Today, July 9th
These are the two best home run props for today, July 9, 2025:
- Pete Alonso
- Nick Kurtz
Last night brought us plenty of home runs from some of the game’s biggest names: Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Cal Raleigh were a few of the many to go yard. Below are some more dinger picks before today’s action begins.
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Home Runs Odds
Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+275 | bet365) vs. (SP: Tomoyuki Sugano)
To start things off, we’re going with the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso.
Alonso went yard late in last night’s game to help propel a nice comeback win over the Baltimore Orioles. And for tonight, he has another great opportunity to go yard against Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano.
Sugano has allowed five homers in just his last two starts. Although he has generally been solid at limiting power for the year, those numbers have slowly begun to regress, as Sugano is in the 7th percentile in barrel percentage, according to Baseball Savant.
As the calendar turns to July, Alonso is beginning to heat up. Particularly, Alonso has been elite against right-handers with a .313 BA, 16 home runs, 176 wRC+ (!!), and a .979 OPS.
Nick Kurtz to Hit a Home Run (+350 | FanDuel) vs. (SP: Bryce Elder)
For our second pick, we will take another guy who went yard last night and one of yesterday’s picks: Nick Kurtz.
Kurtz has been one of the league’s best rookies - against right-handers, Kurtz is slugging .613 with a .969 OPS, where 13 of his 14 home runs have come against this same side.
We took advantage of Braves’ pitcher Didier Fuentes last night (who was sent down after his performance), and we get to do it again with Bryce Elder on the bump.
Over the last few years, Elder has been an excellent target for dingers, as he is always near the bottom of the league in generating swing-and-misses. This has certainly been the case in 2025; according to Baseball Savant, he is in the 2nd percentile in xBA (.305) and 3rd percentile in xERA (6.00).
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