MLB Home Run Props and Best Bets for Today, June 9th
These are the three best home run props for today, June 9, 2025:
- Shohei Ohtani (+190)
- Freddie Freeman (+475)
- Manny Machado (+440)
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Be sure to check out our comprehensive MLB home run odds.
Home Runs Odds
Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+195, bet365)
Updated on 6/10/25
Shohei Ohtani is a stellar pick to homer against Nick Pivetta at +195 odds on bet365. In 13 plate appearances versus Pivetta, Ohtani has smashed two home runs, proving he thrives in this matchup. His elite stats—100th percentile in expected slugging and average exit velocity, 97th percentile in bat speed—highlight hi power. Ohtani’s 15 home runs in May reflect his current form. Notably, Ohtani struggles against the changeup, a pitch Pivetta doesn’t throw, further tilting the edge in his favor. Pivetta’s recent struggles, allowing a home run in six of his last seven starts, solidify this bet’s value.
Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+475, bet365)
Updated on 6/10/25
Freddie Freeman is a compelling bet to homer against Nick Pivetta at +475 odds on bet365. Freeman’s extensive history against Pivetta—12 hits in 39 plate appearances, including a prior home run—shows his comfort in this matchup. His .360 expected BA, low 10% strikeout rate, 91.7 mph average exit velocity, and 24.6-degree launch angle against Pivetta highlight his ability to drive the ball. Freeman’s positive run value against eight pitch types is key, especially since he lacks a homer only against offspeed pitches, which Pivetta doesn’t throw. With Pivetta relying solely on fastballs and breaking balls, Freeman’s disciplined approach and power make this a high-value bet with significant upside.
Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+430, FanDuel)
Manny Machado is a strong pick to go yard against Dustin May at +430 odds on FanDuel. In 32 plate appearances against May, Machado has two home runs, with a 90.3 mph exit velocity and 17.9-degree launch angle. His top-90th percentile rankings in expected batting average, expected slugging, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate underscore his elite power. Machado’s recent tear, three homers in his last four games, adds momentum. He crushes fastballs and breaking balls, precisely the pitches May throws (sweeper, sinker, four-seam, cutter). With positive run value against all these pitches, Machado’s matchup and form make this a high-value bet.
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